Thursday NHL DFS Breakdown: Line Stacks & Strategy

I've made another small change to the magnitude of my rating system, which has an average 49.0 rating per game. That represents the total number of shot attempts per game either for or against, like Corsi, but is also adjusted for shooting percentage and save percentage. With the current rosters I have loaded, the offense rating (OR) range is a best of 56.3 (CHI) to a worst of 43.2 (DET), and the defense rating (DR) range is a best of 43.7 (BOS) to a worst of 58.2 (OTT) – these numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player callups. I am hoping these values clearer show how good or bad a team ranks by equating it to shot attempts per game, whether those are on goal, off target, or blocked shots they are still offensive chances for or against.

Slate Preview: Thursday, Nov. 1

Twelve games on the main slates, not including the NHL Global Series game in Finland between Winnipeg and Florida. The following chart, which is sortable (click the column headings), is included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many offensive and defensive ratings. Also shown are my projected shots on goal, shooting percentage and save percentage. Starting Goalies are listed with either a "projected" or "confirmed" at the time of publication – this will be updated later in the day.

EDM1 vs. CHI: Connor McDavid ($9,300 FD, $8,200 DK), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($6,700 FD, $6,200 DK), Drake Caggiula ($3,300 FD, $3,500 DK) - Chicago has the best-rated offense in the league in my system (56.3 OR), but it is a subpar defensive team playing on the road on the tail-end of a back-to-back after losing Wednesday night in Vancouver; all this sets up EDM1 for a favorable matchup at home where it can avoid the good defense of Jonathan Toews (44.7 DR) and likely face struggling Cam Ward (3.91 GAA, 0.889 SV%). Caggiula keeps the salary of this line reasonable, but cutting him to use Leon Draisaitl instead is a good way to differentiate rosters.

SJ1 vs. CLS: Joe Pavelski ($7,000 FD, $5,800 DK), Timo Meier ($5,200 FD, $6,100 DK), Joe Thornton ($5,500 FD, $4,100 DK)

SJ2 vs. CLS: Logan Couture ($7,200 FD, $6,800 DK), Tomas Hertl ($5,700 FD, $5,900 DK), Kevin Labanc ($4,200 FD, $4,800 DK) - Breaking up the Couture/Meier/Hertl line was a terrible choice that I pointed out to many when the pre-game lines were posted Tuesday, and it resulted in a loss at home to the Rangers – not exactly how I think San Jose expected that change to go. I understand the desire to create three strong lines, but San Jose would do much better with two big lines (Pavelski/Thornton/Evander Kane plus Couture/Meier/Hertl), so keep an eye out for a potential line change during the day. With all that aside, there are a lot of playable pieces. I would avoid Joe Thornton, though, and try some mixing and matching to get exposure to the top power play or just Timo Meier with anyone really – he is clearly the best wing on the team (goals in five consecutive games). Sergei Bobrovsky is confirmed in net already for Columbus and has struggled all season (3.58 GAA, 0.882 SV%), though he did play well Tuesday night in relief of Joonas Korpisalo with 23 saves on 24 shots against Detroit – but a relief stint at home against Detroit is not the same as a cross country road trip to San Jose (54.5 OR)

BUF1 at OTT: Jack Eichel ($7,400 FD, $7,000 DK), Jeff Skinner ($6,500 FD, $6,700 DK), Jason Pominville ($4,400 FD, $5,500 DK) - Ottawa played well for a few games, but it's started to play to its paper stats (league worst 58.1 DR, 19 goals allowed in last four games). Buffalo struggled at home against Calgary on Tuesday, scoring only one goal in a 2-1 OT loss, but Calgary is a solid and deep defensive team – I like Buffalo to bounce back Thursday and should be under-owned due to the poor performance against Calgary, where the top line did score the lone goal (Eichel from Pominville). This line still has 10 goals and 15 assists over its last five games and should offer good value based on ownership.

WSH1 at MON: Alex Ovechkin ($8,800 FD, $8100 DK), Evgeny Kuznetsov ($7,600 FD, $7,100 DK), Jakub Vrana ($3,800 FD, $5,000 DK) - Probably a tough line to afford on DraftKings, but the Vrana value play allows some flexibility on FanDuel. Montreal has played well this year (6-3-2 record), but it has shown some hiccups in the last five games with losses to Buffalo and Ottawa, plus a poor performance at home in a 4-1 loss to Dallas on Tuesday. Washington provides another tough test, with the Ovechkin/Kuznetsov duo playing to an elite level nightly (13 goals, 16 assists in 10 games) with whatever third piece the Capitals decide to throw in the mix with WSH1.

Also in play: NJ1 at DET, STL1 vs. VGK, and TB1/2 vs. NSH

VALUE LINE STACKS

DET1 vs. NJ: Dylan Larkin ($6,200 FD, $5,800 DK), Anthony Mantha ($4,100 FD, $3,900 DK), Darren Helm ($3,600 FD, $3,500 DK) - Larkin is evolving into one of the best young players in the league (six goals and six assists in 12 games, including five points in last two games) and Anthony Mantha is along for the ride (goals in two straight). New Jersey started out the year strong defensively but has fallen off a cliff the last five games, allowing 24 goals, and the Devils don't have a single individual line that is above average defensively.

NYI1 vs. PIT: Anders Lee ($6,500 FD, $6,000 DK), Josh Bailey ($5,700 FD, $4,900 DK), Brock Nelson ($4,800 FD, $4,900 DK)

NYI2 vs. PIT: Mathew Barzal ($6,300 FD, $4,900 DK), Jordan Eberle ($5,300 FD, $4,200 DK), Anthony Beauvillier ($4,100 FD, $3,700 DK) - The NYI2 line is absurdly cheap on DraftKings, but it is in play on FanDuel as well after having a pair of Eberle goals against the same Pittsburgh team on Tuesday. I suspect the Penguins will switch it up and start Casey DeSmith after Matt Murray was pulled en route to a 6-3 loss, but with the Islanders getting the home line matching advantage, they can attack PIT3 (51.2 DR) when they are on the ice, and still get time in positive defensive matchups against PIT1 (49.7 DR) and PIT2 (49.1 DR).

CHI1 at EDM: Jonathan Toews ($7,100 FD, $6,500 DK), Alex DeBrincat ($6,400 FD, $5,500 DK), Dominik Kahun ($3,800 FD, $3,900 DK) - Chicago played last night, but the CHI1 line is still a solid option against a backup goalie and a subpar Edmonton defense (49.6 DR). Delving even deeper, EDM1 is the best defensive unit for Edmonton, and it will likely try to avoid the CHI1 line since Jonathan Toews (44.7 DR) is one of the best defenders in the league, so CHI1 should draw matchups against EDM2 (50.5 DR) and EDM3 (49.1 DR) for the majority of the night.

MON1 vs. WSH: Brendan Gallagher ($6,500 FD, $5,700 DK), Tomas Tatar ($4,700 FD, $4,700 DK), Phillip Danault ($4,700 FD, $4,200 DK)

MON2 vs. WSH: Max Domi ($6,100 FD, $5,300 DK), Jonathan Drouin ($5,500 FD, $5,000 DK), Charles Hudon ($3,500 FD, $2,600 DK) - Tuesday I tried to get a little too cute with the Montreal matchup against a solid Dallas defense (47.7 DR), but Washington allows a lot more offensive (50.9 DR) so we will try again. There are lot of good pieces, you can power play mix and match or just play the lines straight up. Danault is the only one of the six that does not get power play time.

Solo Forward Options

Kyle Palmieri NJ1 at DET ($6,400 FD, $7,400 DK) - Might be one of the most underpriced players on FanDuel (nine goals, five assists in nine games).

Jeff Carter LA2 vs. PHI ($5,800 FD, $4,600 DK) - Carter might, unfortunately, draw elite coverage from PHI1 and Sean Couturier (42.2 DR), but the price tag is nice especially on DK if he can get some time against Nolan Patrick (50.1 DR) and PHI2.

Dominik Simon PIT1 at NYI ($4,000 FD, $4,200 DK) - Cheap exposure to Sidney Crosby and PIT1 paid off Tuesday with six shots and a goal; the goal extended Simon's scoring streak to four consecutive games.

Tyler Bozak STL3 vs. VGK ($3,900 FD, $3,700 DK) - Along with Alex Steen and Patrick Maroon, this may be one of the better third lines in the league; a goal, an assist and nine shots in the previous two games, plus Bozak draws top power play time.

Pontus Aberg ANH 1 vs. NYR ($3,100 FD, $3,000 DK) - A spot on the top like with Ryan Getzlaf and Rickard Rakell is a good spot to be in, and he responded with two goals in his first game in the role. The whole ANH1 line can be a value option as well in a favorable matchup with the Rangers (52.9 DR).

Expensive Defensemen

Brent Burns SJ vs. CLS ($7,300 FD, $6,500 DK) - Burns is back after a slow start to the season, now having recorded a point in nine consecutive games (three goals, 12 assists), including multiple points in three of his last four games. There is not much more to say about Burns, get him in on your San Jose stacks, but the price tag makes that hard sometimes.

Oscar Klefbom EDM vs. CHI ($5,000 FD, $5,600 DK) - Klefbom is not off to a strong start this season (no goals, five assists in 11 games), but he has 37 shots on goal, plays huge minutes (over 26 min/game) and still maintains a spot on the top power play unit. With all that is on his side, Klefbom provides a great stacking play with the EDM1 unit as he can put up a monster score at a reasonable price.

Jeff Petry MON vs. WSH ($4,500 FD, $5,200 DK) - Washington is the defending Stanley Cup champions, but its defense is not playing like it this year, allowing 4.4 goals per game on the road. Petry had top power play duties and has a goal and three assists in the last five games and should pair nicely with any mix of Montreal lines you use.

Value Defensemen

Jamie Oleksiak PIT at NYI ($3,800 FD, $4,800 DK) - Tuesday I suggested Jack Johnson as a play due to his power play time, but if you were active on the RotoWire chat you would have seen that I made a note closer to game time that the better play is probably Jamie Oleksiak, and he provided another solid two assist performance. Still no power play time, but he has done fine without it

Mike Green DET vs. NJ ($4,600 FD, $4,400 DK) - Green missed the early part of the season with an injury but has recorded a pair of assists and eight shots on goal in his first three games. Top power play unit duties, along with a top defensive pairing means a lot of ice time and chance against New Jersey. Include him with all of your Detroit stacks.

Nick Leddy NYI vs. PIT ($4,200 FD, $3,600 DK) - Leddy was arguably the worst fantasy defenseman in hockey over the first nine games of the season with zero goals, zero assists and only four shots on goal. Leddy is a talented player still in his prime with a top power play spot, so there was a good chance at a turnaround and in the past two games he has recorded three assists and is a great spot again against the Penguins.

Goalies

As always, make sure your goalie is starting, these articles are posted well before many teams announce their starter for the evening.

John Gibson ANH vs. NYR ($8,300 FD, $8,400 DK) - The price on FanDuel is criminal, probably the best value of the season so far at $8,300. I know Anaheim has now lost six straight, but the Ducks allow a league high 38.8 shots on goal per game, the upside for a massive save total is there. The Ducks are a -150 favorite with the bookmakers, so to get an elite talent who is favored to get the fantasy points for a victory is just a no brainer at least on FanDuel.

Frederik Andersen TOR vs. DAL ($8,000 FD, $8,100 DK) - Probably a FanDuel only play, and while Dallas has a talented pairing with Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn, they are not playing them together on the same line Thursday. Toronto has not scored as much as it did early in the season, but it has been better defensively to compensate; all-in-all, I like Andersen to have a good save total, hopefully no more than three goals allowed, and then we are in a matchup against Dallas' backup goalie, Anton Khudobin.

Carter Hutton BUF at OTT ($7,500 FD, $7,500 DK) - There is some danger in this play as Hutton has had a couple of poor performances this year, but for the price against Ottawa (47.8 OR, 58.2 DR), I think the potential for a decent save performance coupled with a win is there. There are not a lot of great options Thursday, so taking a shot on someone like Hutton is going to be necessary in some places.