Monday NHL DFS Breakdown: Line Stacks & Strategy

My rankings are determined by a Corsi-based Rating System that I created, which has an average Rating of 49.0 per game. This represents the total number of shot attempts per game either for or against, like Corsi, but it's also adjusted for Shooting Percentage and Save Percentage. Any shot attempt counts, whether it is on goal, off target or blocked, which is why the average hovers around 49, rather than the league average 31.5 shots on goal. With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) range is a best of 57.5 (CAR) to a worst of 44.9 (VAN), and the Defense Rating (DR) range is a best of 44.8 (NSH) to a worst of 56.4 (OTT) – these numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups. I am hoping these values clearly show how good or bad a team ranks by equating it to shot attempts per game.

Slate Preview: Monday, November 19, 2018

The Main Slate on Monday has nine games and a lot of offensive firepower to choose from. The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many Offensive and Defensive Ratings. Also shown are my projected Shots on Goal, Shooting Percentage and Save Percentage. Starting Goalies are listed with either a Projected or Confirmed tag at the time of publication – this will be updated later in the day.

*All stats are projected figures based on my ranking formulas, using 2017-18 and current year statistics.

Expensive Line Stacks

(The number next to the player name is the power-play line they are slated to skate with, if a 0 is shown, that means they are not on either power-play line.)

BUF1 at PIT: Jack Eichel-1 ($7,300 FD, $6,900 DK), Jeff Skinner-1 ($6,700 FD, $6,400 DK), Jason Pominville-2 ($4,700 FD, $4,700 DK) - BUF1 is my top line of the night, they are playing great hockey right now with Eichel (10 assists) continually feeding Skinner (eight goals) in eight November games; Pominville was reunited with Eichel/Skinner last game and promptly provided a goal and assist. They draw a game against a struggling Pittsburgh team who has lost eight of their last nine, and most of those losses have been ugly defensive performances.

FLA1 at OTT: Aleksander Barkov-1 ($7,300 FD, $6,500 DK), Mike Hoffman-2 ($6,100 FD, $6,800 DK), Evgeny Dadonov-1 ($6,800 FD, $6,400 DK) - This may be one of the most talented, but unknown, lines in the league; Barkov is an elite defender who also can get his name on the scoresheet (five goals, 10 assists in 17 games), Dadonov has eight goals and 10 assists in those 17 games, and all Hoffman has done with his new team is set a franchise record for consecutive games with a point (15). If that wasn't enough, they are playing the worst defensive team in the league thanks a road matchup in Ottawa (56.4 DR).

DAL1 at NYR: Jamie Benn-1 ($7,700 FD, $6,100 DK), Tyler Seguin-1 ($7,600 FD, $7,000 DK), Alexander Radulov-1 ($6,100 FD, $6,900 DK) - This line put up a big total on Sunday against the Islanders with three goals and six assists, and while they are playing a back-to-back it is one of the easiest ones in the league with no travel required and a soft defensive opponent on the backend in the Rangers. Their price tag makes it a little difficult to stack all three, but with their power-play defenseman (Esa Lindell) being cheap helps a little.

WPG1 at VAN: Mark Scheifele-1 ($8,100 FD, $7,400 DK), Blake Wheeler-1 ($7,700 FD, $7,100 DK), Nikolaj Ehlers-2 ($5,000 FD, $5,100 DK) - Vancouver is currently on a five-game losing streak and in their two most recent victories they allowed a combined 11 goals, so they are not playing good defense at all. The Scheifele/Wheeler duo has been explosive this year with 13 goals and 31 assists combined in 18 games. Ehlers joined the line a few weeks ago and has had some fair games, but you can also cut him and slide in Patrik Laine or Kyle Connor for the power-play stack.

Also in play: NSH1 vs TB, STL1 vs LA (too expensive and two Centers on FD, but reasonable on DK), CGY1 vs VGK (Vegas on B2B likely with Malcolm Subban in goal)

Value Line Stacks

MON1 vs. WAS: Brendan Gallagher-1 ($6,500 FD, $5,500 DK), Tomas Tatar-2 ($5,800 FD, $5,800 DK), Phillip Danault-1 ($4,800 FD, $3,900 DK)
MON2 vs. WAS: Max Domi-1 ($7,100 FD, $6,300 DK), Jonathan Drouin-1 ($6,000 FD, $5,600 DK), Andrew Shaw-2 ($3,800 FD, $4,300 DK) - Both Montreal lines are in play Monday night against a struggling Washington defense (51.4 DR) who will once against be without their starting goalie Braden Holtby. As in previous write-ups, I like to mix and match their power-play lines to differentiate from other Montreal stacks, so cutting Shaw is in play, however, with Danault getting a spot on the top power-play unit, I would probably just roll with the whole MON1 stack in most cases.

OTT2 vs. FLA: Mark Stone-1 ($6,700 FD, $6,500 DK), Brady Tkachuk-1 ($4,100 FD, $5,900 DK), Colin White-1 ($3,400 FD, $4,700 DK) - This line is still absurdly priced on FanDuel, but you will have to cough up a little extra cap space on DraftKings. Stone has been one of the hottest players in the league with five goals and 10 assists in nine November games, but his line mates are where the cap savings are, while White (four goals, two assists) and Tkachuk (two goals, one assist in five games) have also produced solidly for their prices. James Reimer appears to be starting in goal for Florida and in his previous start last Sunday he shut down this same Ottawa team in a 5-1 victory in Florida; this was Reimer's best start of the year by far as he still maintains a sub-.900 SV% (0.899) and GAA north of 3.00 (3.04)

WPG2 at VAN: Patrik Laine-1 ($7,600 FD, $6,500 DK), Kyle Connor-1 ($5,600 FD, $5,800 DK), Bryan Little-2 ($4,700 FD, $4,100 DK) - Winnipeg's top line has bigger names, but the second line may have the better value with Connor's price on FanDuel and Laine's on DraftKings keeping the line stack in the value range.

PIT2 vs. BUF: Jake Guentzel-1 ($6,400 FD, $5,200 DK), Patric Hornqvist-1 ($5,800 FD, $5,500 DK), Derick Brassard-2 ($4,200 FD, $3,800 DK) - Buffalo has been playing well defensively of late (seven goals allowed in last four games), but this PIT2 line offers some good upside for the price, plus value exposure to the top power-play unit through Guentzel and Hornqvist. Brassard was quiet in his first game back from injury Saturday, but getting that first game rust off should help for Monday's outing.

Also in play: CGY2 vs VGK, TOR2 vs CLS, NSH2 vs TB

Solo Forward Options

Phil Kessel-1 PIT1 vs. BUF ($8,200 FD, $7,000 DK) - Kessel gets to skate with Evgeni Malkin on PIT1 on Monday, so the whole line should be in consideration, but the mix-and-match power-play approach usually is the better way to handle Pittsburgh, so I'd start with PIT1 and add in Hornqvist or Guentzel; or start with PIT2 and mix in Kessel and/or Malkin.

Matt Duchene-2 OTT1 vs. FLA ($6,400 FD, $6,500 DK) - Duchene is on fire right now with four goals and eight assists in his past six games, so he has not skipped a beat following his realignment to OTT2.

Matthew Tkachuk-1 CGY2 vs. VGK ($6,300 FD, $5,400 DK) - Tkachuk is one of my favorite solo plays on a nightly basis as he draws top power-play time, but his linemates (Michael Backlund and Sam Bennett) are not elite scorers like Tkachuk (nine goals, 12 assists in 20 games).

Lars Eller-1 WAS1 at MON ($4,200 FD, $5,200 DK) - Eller offers a great way to get cheap exposure to Alex Ovechkin and the top Washington power play; although the matchup is far from ideal on the road against Carey Price, the cap savings he can provide can help you load up elsewhere and possibly pair him with Ovechkin for a low ownership duo.

Drake Batherson-2 OTT1 vs. FLA ($3,200 FD, $4,000 DK) - Batherson does not have an elite pedigree as a fourth-round pick last season, but he has a goal and two assists in his first two career games and gets to play with Matt Duchene on both the regular line and power play in a potentially up-tempo game, so there is some value here at a likely low ownership.

Defensemen

(Due to extreme pricing differentials between the sites, a single list will be provided for defensemen moving forward.)

Keith Yandle-1 FLA at OTT ($5,700 FD, $5,800 DK) - Even though they have been playing decent offensive hockey, Ottawa is a defense to attack nightly in fantasy; Florida is one of my favorite lines of the night, so pairing them with their top power-play defenseman makes sense. With at least one point in 13 of 17 games this year, Yandle has been incredibly consistent, and the Ottawa matchup adds in the potential upside.

Thomas Chabot-1 OTT vs. FLA ($5,100 FD, $6,200 DK) - FanDuel *finally* priced Chabot over $5,000. I'm not quite sure what is going on in their pricing formula as Chabot is one of the leading candidates for the Norris Trophy right now with five goals and 18 assists in 20 games (second only to Morgan Rielly in scoring by defensemen). Fire him up with your Ottawa rosters or just play him solo if the price fits.

Rasmus Ristolainen-2 BUF at PIT ($4,600 FD, $4,700 DK) - Ristolainen has been quiet in the last three games, but all were tough defensive games against Tampa Bay, Winnipeg and Minnesota -- the game Monday night against Pittsburgh will be a much better spot for him to play his offensive game.

Jeff Petry-1 MON vs. WAS ($4,500 FD, $4,800 DK) - Petry just keeps quietly churning out assists, he is up to 14 on the season in 20 games and has three in the past four games. You likely won't see him light the lamp, but you can surely bet he'll be in on the action if Montreal scores on the poor Washington defense.

Michael Matheson-2 FLA at OTT ($4,000 FD, $5,000 DK) - If you are looking to save from the Keith Yandle spot, consider Matheson who has three assists in his past two games plus seven shots on goal and gives you some solid upside for a good price on FanDuel against the poor defense of Ottawa.

Esa Lindell-1 DAL at NYR ($4,100 FD, $3,900 DK) - Miro Heiskanen did not capitalize on the injury to teammate John Klingberg that opened up more playing time and a spot on the top power-play unit, so up steps Lindell, who has produced in the role at times over the past two seasons including a two-goal performance Sunday against the Islanders.

Also in play: Roman Josi-2 NSH vs. TB ($6,400 FD, $6,000 DK), Dustin Byfuglien-1 WPG at VAN ($6,100 FD, $5,700 DK), Vince Dunn-1 STL vs. LA ($3,800 FD, $4,500 DK), Julius Honka-0 DAL at NYR ($3,500 FD, $2,800 DK)

Goalies

As always, make sure your goalie is starting, these articles are posted well before many teams announce their starter for the evening.

Frederik Andersen TOR vs. CLS ($8,800 FD, $7,900 DK) - Columbus is not an easy matchup (50.6 OR) and Toronto allows a lot of shots (51.1 DR), but Andersen is among the best goaltender talents in the league; the stats say this game adds up to a potential huge save total and Toronto is favored to win the game as well -- I would not be surprised if Anderson puts up 40+ FanDuel or 8+ DraftKings points Monday.

Connor Hellebuyck WPG at VAN ($8,100 FD, $8,300 DK) - Hellebuyck has won four of five starts, allowing two or fewer goals in all four victories (2.22 GAA, .930 SV%). Vancouver offers a mixed bag of matchup stats, as they are one of the worst offensive teams in the league (44.9 OR), but they are middle of the league in goals scored per game (3.0); so if they do score their average three goals, they do not typically give the big opposing save totals that add up to high fantasy totals. With all that said, with how well Winnipeg and Hellebuyck have been playing, I think Vancouver scores two or fewer goals and the Jets win the game, making Hellebuyck a fine option Monday.

Jake Allen STL vs. LA ($7,700 FD, $8,200 DK) - Allen has been terrible this year (3.51 GAA, .890 SV%), but he has played great in his previous two games (two goals allowed, .962 SV%); both of those games were on the road against strong offenses (Chicago and Vegas), so with St. Louis returning home to face a Los Angeles team that is still the doormat of the league in terms of offense (2.0 goals per game, last in the league), this game offers Allen a chance to continue his strong play.

Also in play...

Pekka Rinne NSH vs. TB ($9,200 FD, $8,000 DK) – Rinne has massive save potential, the Predators are a favorite to win, and he should come with low ownership.

Previously, Anton Khudobin was listed here, but the Stars are starting Ben Bishop on Monday.