DFS NHL Breakdown: Thursday Line Stacks and Strategies

Please see this previous article for the basic strategy write-up.

My rankings use a Corsi-based rating system that I created, with the average rating 100 both offensively (OR) and defensively (DR). This rating is determined by factoring in Corsi, scoring chances, high danger chances, shooting percentage and save percentage. With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) ranges from a best of 119.5 (TOR) to a worst of 92.2 (DET), and the Defense Rating (DR) ranges from a best of 93.4 (BOS) to a worst of 112.7 (OTT). These numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups. The ratings in the chart below represent adjusted match up ratings.

Slate Preview

Thursday night brings us an 11-game slate with some really good games out East: Vegas at Toronto, Washington at Florida, Pittsburgh at NY Islanders and Montreal at Philadelphia. Below are some of the highlighted tournaments on FanDuel and DraftKings.

The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many offensive and defensive ratings. Also shown are my projected shots on goal, shooting percentages and save percentages. Starting goalies are listed with either a projected or confirmed tag at the time of publication – this will be updated later in the day.

All players below have a number inside parenthesis next to their names, which denotes the power play unit they are on (1) or (2). If they are not on a power play they will be noted with a (0), and the rare occasion of a (3) means that they are on both power play units.

Line Stacks

CGY1 vs. NJ: Johnny Gaudreau (1) ($7,300 FD, $6,700 DK), Sean Monahan (1) ($7,100 FD, $6,400 DK), Elias Lindholm (1) ($6,600 FD, $6,500 DK) - New Jersey (102.5 DR) has won two in a row on the road but it'll take a strong effort to slow down Calgary. Gaudreau, Monahan and Linholm have picked up their games over the past week and have combined for five goals, 13 assists and 37 shots over their past five. They are not cheap but there are plenty of cheap options to mix in.

FLA1 vs. WSH: Jonathan Huberdeau (1) ($7,200 FD, $7,400 DK), Aleksander Barkov (1) ($8,000 FD, $6,100 DK), Evgenii Dadonov (1) ($6,400 FD, $5,900 DK) - I would not be shocked at all if FLA1 is the line of the night as Barkov, Huberdeau and Dadonov have been electric lately with a combined nine goals, 12 assists and 33 shots over the past five games. Washington offers a great combination of high-pace offense (106.2 OR) and poor defense (105.9 DR).

VAN2 at CHI: Elias Pettersson (1) ($7,300 FD, $7,200 DK), Brock Boeser (1) ($7,400 FD, $6,900 DK), J.T. Miller (1) ($6,100 FD, $6,100 DK) - VAN1 is one of the hottest lines in hockey right now as Pettersson, Boeser and Miller have combined for nine goals, 11 assists and an amazing 47 shots over the past five. The Blackhawks (104.9 DR) have lost seven of their last nine games and are returning from a West Coast road trip the concluded with a 4-2 loss Tuesday at San Jose.

PHI1 vs. MON: Claude Giroux (1) ($7,500 FD, $6,200 DK), James van Riemsdyk (1) ($5,300 FD, $6,200 DK), Joel Farabee (1) ($3,600 FD, $4,200 DK) / PHI2 vs. MON: Sean Couturier (2) ($6,900 FD, $5,900 DK), Travis Konecny (2) ($6,200 FD, $6,000 DK), Oskar Lindblom (2) ($4,700 FD, $4,900 DK) - Philadelphia scored four goals Tuesday against Carolina with both top two lines getting pieces of two goals. Another home game is on the slate Thursday with Montreal (100.0 DR) looming on the other end of the ice. The Canadiens have won four of five but allowed four goals in three straight games. I think this is a great spot for both of the top Flyers lines but would lean towards PHI1 for the price and top power play exposure.

CAR1 vs. NYR: Sebastian Aho (1) ($7,000 FD, $6,300 DK), Andrei Svechnikov (2) ($6,200 FD, $6,600 DK), Warren Foegele (0) ($3,400 FD, $3,200 DK) - The Rangers (111.4 DR) will be traveling on the tail end of a back-to-back and should allow a ton of shots to Carolina, who ranks fourth in the NHL in my offensive rating system (111.8 OR). Aho and Svechnikov have seven goals, six assists and 34 shots over their past five games, while Foegele helps keep the salary down and has recorded a goal and assist in his past three games.

OTT1 vs. LA: Brady Tkachuk (1) ($5,300 FD, $5,800 DK), Anthony Duclair (1) ($4,200 FD, $4,800 DK), Chris Tierney (0) ($3,900 FD, $3,200 DK) - Tkachuck and Duclair have been playing great offensive hockey of late with four goals, five assists and 33 shots in their last five games. Ottawa moved Jean-Gabriel Pageau off this line, which I do not agree with, but Tierney should provide some decent value at his price in a home game against a poor Los Angeles defense (106.4 DR).

Other Options: TOR1/2 vs VGK, WSH1 at FLA, CHI2 vs VAN, SJ1/2 vs MIN, CGY2 vs NJ, ARI1/3 vs CBJ, LA1 at OTT, OTT2 vs LA

Solo Forward Options

Auston Matthews (1) TOR2 vs VGK ($8,900 FD, $7,900 DK) - Most of the Maple Leaf norms are in play Thursday with Malcolm Subban (4.32 GAA, .887 SV%) confirmed as the Vegas goalie, but it all starts with Matthews, who is a beast at home with 16 of his 18 points coming in Toronto.

Matthew Tkachuk (1) CGY2 vs NJ ($6,900 FD, $7,300 DK) - Tkachuk is the best player on the Flames right now, and he had five goals, three assists and 22 shots in his last five games, including a three-point performance Tuesday against Arizona. He is a great solo option or add-on to the CGY1 stacks.

Bo Horvat (1) VAN1 at CHI ($6,200 FD, $6,700 DK) - Horvat has been a nice bonus power play piece on the top unit with a goal and assist in his past four games on the man advantage; he has also chipped in two even strength assists and 10 shots. If you want to add Alexander Edler to your VAN1 stacks, that is likely a smart option, but a lower percentage play is to use Horvat.

Jakub Vrana (2) WSH2 at FLA ($5,800 FD, $5,800 DK) - Vrana has been on fire of late with six goals, three assists and 19 shots over his last five games. Florida will likely spend extra effort in stopping Alex Ovechkin and the rest of WSH1, leaving Vrana and WSH2 to be a sneaky option.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau (2) OTT2 vs LA ($4,400 FD, $5,000 DK) - Pageau was moved off of the OTT1 line even after playing some great offensive hockey over his past three games with three goals, an assist and seven shots. Even with the shift to OTT2, I like him centering Connor Brown and Nick Paul.

Defensemen

Mark Giordano (1) CGY vs. NJ ($6,000 FD, $6,400 DK) - Giordano hopefully kick-started a hot streak with a goal, an assist and a monster nine shots Tuesday against Arizona. New Jersey provides another good opportunity for the talented blueliner to rack up the fantasy points.

Dougie Hamilton (2) CAR vs. NYR ($6,500 FD, $6,500 DK) - The price is hard to swallow but in a matchup at home against a tired Rangers team, it's hard to not have some exposure to Hamilton, who leads the Hurricanes in scoring through 15 games. Slide him in with your Carolina stacks and move onto the next open roster spot.

Thomas Chabot (1) OTT vs. LA ($5,300 FD, $6,100 DK) - The Kings (106.4 DR) are allowing a league high 4.00 goals per game and Chabot is the clear top defenseman on the Senators with a spot on the top even strength line and power play unit.

Michal Kempny (0) WSH at FLA ($3,900 FD, $5,200 DK) - Kempny has two goals, four assists, eight shots and five blocks in his last four games -- he is criminally underpriced on FanDuel for a matchup against Florida, who is allowing the seventh-most goals in the league per game (3.43).

Mark Pysyk (0) FLA vs WSH ($3,500 FD, $2,500 DK) - Pysyk will line up as a forward on the third line again, and while this is a pure punt option, he does have a goal and assist over the past five games and finds himself in a favorable matchup at home against Washington (105.9 DR).

Goalies

Darcy Kuemper ARI vs CBJ ($8,400 FD, $8,400 DK) - Keumper continued his Vezina Trophy campaign with a 26-save, two-goals-allowed performance Monday at Edmonton. On the season, he has compiled a 1.69 GAA and .940 SV% to go along with a 7-3-0 record. Columbus is currently 30th in goals scored (2.33/gm) but I still project them to have more than 31 shots Thursday, which gives Kuemper nice save potential.

Petr Mrazek CAR vs NYR ($7,900 FD, $8,500 DK) - A much better value on FanDuel, but the Rangers will be traveling for the second game of a back-to-back and Carolina is the biggest favorite on the board by a wide margin. Mrazek had a tough game at Philadelphia on Tuesday, but he allowed only four goals in his previous three home games, all victories, with a 1.34 GAA and .957 SV%.

Anders Nilsson OTT vs LA ($7,300 FD, $7,700 DK) - Playing the Ottawa goalie is not for the faint of heart, but if you are looking for a tournament-winning option then Nilsson might be your man. Even with the poor Ottawa defense, the Kings are still only adjusted to a 95.8 OR in my formula, but they are projected to take over 33 shots.

FanDuel tournament value option: Martin Jones SJ vs MIN ($7,400 FD, $8,100 DK)
DraftKings tournament value option: Pekka Rinne NSH at COL ($8,800 FD, $7,700 DK)