This article is part of our DFS NHL Breakdown series.
Please see this previous article for the basic strategy write-up.
My rankings use a Corsi-based rating system that I created, with the average rating 100 both offensively (OR) and defensively (DR). This rating is determined by factoring in Corsi, scoring chances, high danger chances, shooting percentage and save percentage. With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) ranges from a best of 115.5 (TOR) to a worst of 88.2 (DET), and the Defense Rating (DR) ranges from a best of 93.6 (BOS) to a worst of 112.1 (OTT). These numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups.
Slate Preview
Thursday night provides us with a 10-game slate that looks wide open with many fantasy options, highlighted by a Buffalo/NY Rangers tilt in Madison Square Garden and a nightcap out in Western Canada with Washington traveling to Edmonton. Below are some of the major tournaments of the evening:
| FANDUEL | DRAFTKINGS |
|---|---|
| $33 Goal (427 entries) | $33 Line Change (883 entries) |
| $12 Slapshot (196 entries) | $20 Crosscheck (294 entries) |
| $7 Crossbar (504 entries) | $12 Knuckle Puck (784 entries, Single Entry) |
| $5 Save (476 entries, Single Entry) | $5 One-Timer (1,426 entries, Single Entry) |
| $4.44 Breakaway (10,725 Entries) | $3 Enforcer (1,585 entries) |
The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many offensive and defensive ratings. Also shown are my projected shots on goal, shooting percentages and save percentages. Starting goalies are listed with either a projected or confirmed tag
Please see this previous article for the basic strategy write-up.
My rankings use a Corsi-based rating system that I created, with the average rating 100 both offensively (OR) and defensively (DR). This rating is determined by factoring in Corsi, scoring chances, high danger chances, shooting percentage and save percentage. With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) ranges from a best of 115.5 (TOR) to a worst of 88.2 (DET), and the Defense Rating (DR) ranges from a best of 93.6 (BOS) to a worst of 112.1 (OTT). These numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups.
Slate Preview
Thursday night provides us with a 10-game slate that looks wide open with many fantasy options, highlighted by a Buffalo/NY Rangers tilt in Madison Square Garden and a nightcap out in Western Canada with Washington traveling to Edmonton. Below are some of the major tournaments of the evening:
| FANDUEL | DRAFTKINGS |
|---|---|
| $33 Goal (427 entries) | $33 Line Change (883 entries) |
| $12 Slapshot (196 entries) | $20 Crosscheck (294 entries) |
| $7 Crossbar (504 entries) | $12 Knuckle Puck (784 entries, Single Entry) |
| $5 Save (476 entries, Single Entry) | $5 One-Timer (1,426 entries, Single Entry) |
| $4.44 Breakaway (10,725 Entries) | $3 Enforcer (1,585 entries) |
The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many offensive and defensive ratings. Also shown are my projected shots on goal, shooting percentages and save percentages. Starting goalies are listed with either a projected or confirmed tag at the time of publication – this will be updated later in the day.
| TEAM | OPP | STARTING GOALIE | OR | DR | SOG | S% | SV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose | at MON | (C) Aaron Dell | 111.9 | 97.8 | 32.9 | 9.8 | 88.8 |
| Montreal | vs SJ | (C) Carey Price | 108.9 | 98.7 | 35.6 | 9.5 | 91.5 |
| Arizona | at NYI | (C) Darcy Kuemper | 97.1 | 98.1 | 32.1 | 9.8 | 92.1 |
| NY Islanders | vs. ARI | (C) Semyon Varlamov | 89.9 | 98.6 | 29.2 | 9.4 | 91.4 |
| Buffalo | at NYR | (P) Carter Hutton | 99.3 | 98.3 | 34.9 | 9.6 | 90.5 |
| NY Rangers | vs. BUF | (C) Henrik Lundqvist | 93.8 | 108.1 | 28.3 | 11.1 | 90.4 |
| Carolina | at CBJ | (P) Petr Mrazek | 110.5 | 96.4 | 32.0 | 9.7 | 90.9 |
| Columbus | vs. CAR | (C) Joonas Korpisalo | 95.1 | 98.8 | 30.2 | 9.2 | 89.8 |
| Los Angeles | at STL | (P) Jonathan Quick | 95.0 | 104.5 | 30.7 | 8.4 | 88.5 |
| St. Louis | vs. LA | (C) Jordan Binnington | 97.6 | 97.9 | 33.9 | 9.1 | 91.7 |
| Minnesota | at NSH | (C) Alex Stalock | 97.7 | 97.6 | 32.7 | 8.5 | 89.8 |
| Nashville | vs. MIN | (P) Pekka Rinne | 101.1 | 96.0 | 32.5 | 10.5 | 91.3 |
| Philadelphia | at CHI | (C) Brian Elliott | 102.6 | 101.1 | 33.0 | 9.6 | 90.0 |
| Chicago | vs. PHI | (C) Robin Lehner | 105.1 | 104.7 | 35.3 | 10.4 | 91.8 |
| Anaheim | at DAL | (C) John Gibson | 92.9 | 101.9 | 28.2 | 9.3 | 91.5 |
| Dallas | vs. ANH | (C) Ben Bishop | 97.7 | 96.4 | 33.0 | 9.3 | 92.7 |
| Florida | at CGY | (P) Sergei Bobrovsky | 98.6 | 99.9 | 32.3 | 10.6 | 90.3 |
| Calgary | vs. FLA | (C) David Rittich | 109.4 | 95.7 | 33.3 | 10.7 | 90.7 |
| Washington | at EDM | (P) Braden Holtby | 104.7 | 103.1 | 31.7 | 10.9 | 90.6 |
| Edmonton | vs. WSH | (P) Mikko Koskinen | 91.4 | 105.5 | 30.6 | 10.9 | 90.3 |
All players below have a number inside parenthesis next to their names, which denotes the power play unit they are on (1) or (2). If they are not on a power play they will be noted with a (0), and the rare occasion of a (3) means that they are on both power play units.
Line Stacks
BUF1 at NYR: Jack Eichel (1) ($8,400 FD, $7,900 DK), Victor Olofsson (1) ($6,500 FD, $5,500 DK), Sam Reinhart (1) ($6,000 FD, $5,400 DK) - There are quite a few solid options on the slate, but BUF1 should be one of the top stacks. Playing at the Rangers (108.1 DR) with Henrik Lundqvist (3.57 GAA, .906 SV%) in net, Eichel, Olofsson and Reinhart (16 goals, 15 assists combined in 10 games) will be in favorable spots against any defensive unit the Rangers try to put on the ice to stop them.
STL1 vs. LA: Vladimir Tarasenko (1) ($7,600 FD, $7,600 DK), Brayden Schenn (1) ($6,200 FD, $7,000 DK), Jaden Schwartz (1) ($5,500 FD, $4,800 DK) - Jonathan Quick has been playing better recently, so there is some risk involved with STL1, but if the Kings (104.5 DR) play as they have been for more than a year, then Tarasenko, Schenn and Schwartz (10 goals, 16 assists in nine games) are a good bet to pot multiple goals.
CGY1 vs. FLA: Johnny Gaudreau (1) ($7,300 FD, $7,400 DK), Sean Monahan (1) ($7,000 FD, $7,500 DK), Elias Lindholm (1) ($6,000 FD, $5,800 DK) - CGY1 started out the season hot in the first two games, but in the past nine games Gaudreau and Monahan have only tallied one goal and six assists; these are players who put up 99 and 82 points, respectively, last season. The progression to the mean is coming for these guys, and a high-paced game at home against Florida should give them a chance to get rolling again.
CHI2 vs. PHI: Patrick Kane (1) ($8,100 FD, $7,800 DK), Dylan Strome (1) ($4,900 FD, $4,400 DK), Kirby Dach (0) ($3,200 FD, $3,400 DK) - I wrote up both Chicago lines Tuesday and they disappointed -- one thing that didn't disappoint was Dach, the third overall pick in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft, who scored his first career goal in his second game. Kane and Strome have not gotten off to a great start this season, but I believe they will draw the more favorable matchup against PHI2, with the Jonathan Toews line being tasked with slowing down PHI1.
MON2 vs SJ: Max Domi (2) ($6,700 FD, $5,900 DK), Jonathan Drouin (1) ($5,700 FD, $5,100 DK), Joel Armia (2) ($4,200 FD, $4,700 DK) - With Aaron Dell (3.48 GAA, .884 SV%) starting in net for the up tempo Sharks, some exposure to the Canadiens at home is well warranted, I'm looking to MON2 with the new revamped lines that were posted this morning. They haven't played together much, but Domi, Drouin and Armia have all been hot as of late combining for seven goals and eight assists over their last five games.
Other Options: EDM1 vs WSH, WSH1 at EDM, MON1 vs SJ, NSH2 vs MIN, NYR1 vs BUF
Solo Forward Options
Jeff Skinner (1) BUF2 at NYR ($7,500 FD, $7,000 DK) - Skinner warrants similar consideration to the BUF1 line due to his time on the top power play unit, but with his second line even strength spot, he is a better solo option.
Ryan O'Reilly (2) STL2 vs LA ($6,500 FD, $5,700 DK) - O'Reilly is the best player on the STL2 line and is also one of the best defensive forwards in the league. He will likely garner some extra ice time on Tuesday in an effort to slow down Anze Kopitar.
Alex DeBrincat (1) CHI1 vs PHI ($6,100 FD, $6,100 DK) - DeBrincat is due to break out any night, and he draws a positive matchup against Philadelphia (101.1 OR), against whom he scored a goal and took five shots against in the season opener in Europe.
Kyle Turris (2) NSH2 vs MIN ($4,300 FD, $4,300 DK) - Turris has points in four straight games (two goals, three assists) and has played extremely well since taking over a spot on NSH2 following the Filip Forsberg injury. Minnesota has drawn a tough early season schedule, and these road games are wearing on them. Consider multiple Nashville options, but Turris is the best value play.
Alexander Wennberg (1) CBJ2 vs CAR ($4,400 FD, $3,300 DK) - Wennberg's numbers do not jump off the page (two goals, three assists in nine games), but with a promotion to the top power play line, where he scored in the previous game, and an high-paced opponent in Carolina, there is some good value if you are looking for a cheap center.
Defensemen
John Carlson (1) WSH at EDM ($7,100 FD, $7,200 DK) - Carlson is out to one of the best starts in the NHL, not just for defensemen but for all players, with five goals and 15 assists in 11 games. Carlson also offers strong peripheral numbers with 23 shots and 21 blocks, so he brings a solid floor even if it is a night when he does not find the score-sheet. The game at Edmonton (105.5 DR) offers some up tempo play that Carlson should thrive in.
Roman Josi (1) NSH vs. MIN ($6,600 FD, $6,800 DK) / Ryan Ellis (2) NSH vs. MIN ($5,300 FD, $5,800 DK) - These guys are on fire right now, combining for two goals and 12 assists over the past five games. Drawing a tired Minnesota team that is already playing their seventh road game of the season, Josi and Ellis should continue their offensive onslaught.
Rasmus Dahlin (1) BUF at NYR ($5,700 FD, $5,300 DK) - Dahlin is on historical pace for a teenager with 10 points in his first 10 games. The power play quarterback for a strong offense in a game against the Rangers (108.1 DR) is one of the best spots you can find in fantasy hockey.
Vince Dunn (1) STL vs. LA ($4,000 FD, $3,800 DK) - Dunn, with top power play time, provides some salary relief for the STL1 stack. He is not a world beater, but he does take quite a few shots (22 in nine games), so if he finds the back of the net you have a great value play.
Matt Niskanen (2) PHI at CHI ($3,800 FD, $4,100 DK) - In seven games, Niskanen has tallied a pair of goals and assists while putting 13 shots on net and blocking five shots. With the up tempo game against Chicago, Niskanen should be involved on both ends of the ice with over 20 minutes ATOI.
Goalies
Pekka Rinne NSH vs MIN ($8,900 FD, $8,300 DK) - Another great matchup at home for Rinne hosting the Wild (97.7 OR), who have only scored 21 goals in nine games this season (2.33 goals per game), and they are even worse on the road with 12 goals in six games.
Jordan Binnington STL vs LA ($7,900 FD, $8,400 DK) - Binnington, the breakout star for the Stanley Cup champion Blues, has not had as hot of a start as he did during his rookie season, but he has quietly been pretty good (2.66 GAA, .912 SV%). The Kings (95.0 OR) have played better as of late, but offensively they are still struggling with only four goals in their last four losses, and allowing 20 goals in four road games this season.
Ben Bishop DAL vs ANH ($8,400 FD, $8,200 DK) - Bishop only has two wins in seven starts, but his stats (2.57 GAA, .913 SV%) are better than his record. Lack of goal support has been a huge issue for Dallas, so the risk of another winless start is definitely on the table, but the Ducks (92.9 OR) struggle offensively, especially on the road where they have yet to score more than two goals in game this year.
Other Options: John Gibson ANH at DAL ($8,400 FD, $7,200 DK)
