This article is part of our NHL Picks series.
For most people, college athletics and March mean the madness of the Men's and Women's NCAA Basketball Tournaments. But there is another collegiate tournament worth following in the Frozen Four, or Men's NCAA Ice Hockey Tournament.
The Northeast will have plenty of representation, including rivals Boston College and Boston University but don't sleep on the Midwest which includes the two more decorated programs in Denver and Michigan.
First Round Matchups March 28
Denver University -1.5 Over Massachusetts (-105)
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Denver enters the tournament as the No. 3 overall seed after winning the NCHC Tournament. Leading goalscorer Jack Devine -- a seventh-round pick of the Florida Panthers in the 2022 NHL Draft -- racked up 27 goals in 40 games this season. Including their conference tournament, the Pioneers lost just once in their last 12 contests.
Massachusetts, meanwhile, comes into the Frozen Four in a bit of a slump, having won just once in their last four outings. They lack a prolific scorer at the same level as Devine, with Aydar Suniev's 12 tallies leading the way for Massachusetts.
Looking at this mismatch, you'll want to target the Pioneers, but at -250 on the Moneyline it makes more sense to look at the Puckline and give up the 1.5 goals to get near even money value on Denver.
Boston University vs RIT Total Over 6.5 (-125)
BU may have "needed" an at-large bid to make the tournament this year, but that's only because crosstown rivals Boston College beat them 6-2 in the Hockey East conference tournament. Still, this is a team that went 26-9-2 during the season while racking up 150 goals.
The Tigers of RIT certainly are no walkovers, considering they won both their conference's regular season title and tournament. But the fact is the Atlantic Hockey Conference isn't exactly filled with powerhouse teams -- as evidenced by the fact that RIT is the only team from the Atlantic to qualify.
For me, there isn't enough value on the Puckline at -2.5 to back the Terriers at just -105 in the event RIT is able to keep this one close. Instead, I'll take the over in what could be a very high-scoring game.
Cornell Moneyline Win Versus Maine (+105)
Cornell is one of the few teams to beat Boston University this season, though that win came back in November. Netminder Ian Shane has recorded a goals against average (GAA) under 2.0 in each of his three seasons, including his 1.70 GAA in 32 games this season. He will face a difficult task shutting with 2023 first-round pick Bradley Nadeau, who notched 19 goals and 27 assists as a rookie for Maine this season.
For their part, the Maine Black Bears started the season well but lost six of their last 11 contests, though they do boast three wins over top-25 ranked teams over that stretch. If they don't score early, it could be a short trip to Springfield. The under is certainly in play with the goaltending options, but I prefer to grab Cornell with the "slight" upset.
Minnesota -1.5 Against Omaha (+105)
By the Gophers' standards, the regular season could be considered a disappointment considering they finished third in the Big 10 behind Wisconsin and Michigan State. Still, this is a program that lost in the Frozen Four Final last season. They lost eight players from that team -- including five currently under contract in the NHL -- but despite the departures, 13 players on this roster have been drafted into the NHL, a list that includes three first-round picks.
You won't find that same pedigree on the Mavericks' roster, with just three NHL draft picks suiting up. Perhaps more concerning is the fact that Omaha managed just 13 wins in 24 conference games, finishing fifth in the standings behind St. Cloud State and Colorado College, neither of which made the tournament. Similar to the Denver vs. Massachusetts clash, the value here comes from the Puckline, as the Gophers are -245 favorites on the Moneyline.
First Round Matchups March 29
Boston College -2.5 Goals Against Michigan Tech
Boston College finished the season as the No. 1 ranked team, knocked off Boston University in the Hockey East tournament and features the top two scorers from the 2023-24 season in Will Smith (67 points) and Cutter Gauthier (59 points). Freshman netminder Jacob Fowler, a 2023 third-round pick, went 29-5-1 with a .925 save percentage in 35 games this season.
For their part, Michigan Tech won the CCHA Tournament to make the Frozen Four but they are simply outclassed in this matchup. You'll have to give up 2.5 goals to get enough value on Boston College considering they are -720. If you are really looking for a big payout, you could take Michigan Tech at +450 but that seems like a waste of money.
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Michigan State vs Western Michigan Total Under 6.5 (+100)
The Big 10 regular season and tournament champion Spartans are heavy favorites heading into this clash at -270, which is the second biggest favorite of the opening round. So there is little value in taking them Moneyline and giving up 1.5 goals on the Puckline still brings back just -110, which isn't terrible.
But looking at these squads, Michigan State only allowed 108 goals in 36 games this season while the Broncos gave up the fewest goals in the NCHC this year at 64 in conference play. The result will likely go to Michigan State but don't expect to see a lot of scoring in this one.
Wisconsin Win Versus Quinnipiac (-125)
According to the odds this matchup is a toss-up, with the Badgers only favored -125 on the Moneyline. Wisconsin is led by senior netminder Kyle McClellan, who finished second in the NCAA in goals against average (1.92) and was named Big 10 Goaltender of the Year.
On the other end, Quinnipiac rosters ECAC Player of the Year Collin Graf and Best Defensive Forward Jacob Quillan. The Bobcats have been ranked in the top 10 all season long but haven't faced a ranked opponent since Jan. 20 versus Cornell, a contest they lost in overtime. Meanwhile, the Badgers have gone 10-6-1 against ranked opponents this season. The quality of the schedule has me favoring Wisconsin despite having to give up some juice.
Michigan vs. North Dakota Total Over 7 (-115)
This will no doubt be the hardest game to pick given the similarities between these two teams. They both lost in the finals of their respective conference tournaments while putting up over 140 goals this season. If I had to pick, I'd give the slight edge to North Dakota since they were able to win the NCHC regular season title, but at -120 for the Fighting Hawks and -110 for the Wolverines, it seems too risky to side with either club.
Instead, the total sitting at seven goals gives you the benefit of a potential push if needed. Among the NCAA's top 10 point producers this season, you'll find three of them -- ND's Jackson Blake and U of M's Rutger McGroarty and Gavin Brindley -- in this contest.
Frozen Four Futures
It's hard not to side with one of the two favorites, Boston College (+250) or Boston University (+500), given how successful the two clubs have been this season. Despite being No. 1 overall, BC might have the harder potential path to the final, needing to get past the likes of Wisconsin, Michigan State and/or North Dakota while BU's toughest opponent may be Denver. To that end, between the favorites, I'd look at Boston University to get the added value at +500.
As far as long shots go, a young Wisconsin team that includes nine freshmen -- six of whom were selected in the last two NHL Drafts -- comes in at +1500. First-year coach Mike Hastings took Minnesota State to the finals back in 2021 and brought three players with him to Madison. For full disclosure I am a Badgers season-ticket holder, but I still think they make sense as a high-value long shot.
Frozen Four First Round Picks
- Denver University -1.5 Over Massachusetts (-105)
- Boston University vs RIT Total Over 6.5 (-125)
- Cornell Moneyline Win Versus Maine (+105)
- Minnesota -1.5 Against Omaha (+105)
- Boston College -2.5 Goals Against Michigan Tech
- Michigan State vs Western Michigan Total Under 6.5 (+100)
- Wisconsin Win Versus Quinnipiac (-125)
- Michigan vs. North Dakota Total Over 7 (-115)
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