This article is part of our NHL Draft series.
With the 2015 NHL Entry Draft set to begin Friday, we've asked RotoWire senior hockey writer Janet Eagleson and NHL prospect analyst Jon Litterine to tackle some of the topics sure to dominate the conversation leading up to draft day.
(1) Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel are the consensus top two picks. McDavid is set to go No. 1 in the NHL Draft, but is he or Eichel the top choice in dynasty leagues?
Eagleson: McDavid is my top choice, but not by a wide margin. Eichel is damn good and he's the PERFECT fit in the City of Fires. McDavid won't be able to pull off that wrap-around move in the NHL…well, not against big, smart, and tough defenders like Shea Weber, who'll clean his clock. At his peak, McDavid will a 60-goal, 125-point player. Eichel? 50 and 115. There's not a lot of difference there, is there?
Litterine: I love Eichel, but I think it still has to be McDavid. He's the best prospect I've seen since I started doing this. Over their first few seasons especially, I expect McDavid to be more valuable in fantasy leagues. The Oilers still have gigantic holes on their defense and in net, but they have the talent up front to score a lot of goals. I like McDavid's supporting cast (Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov, Leon Draisaitl) far more than I like Eichel's (Evander Kane, Sam Reinhart
With the 2015 NHL Entry Draft set to begin Friday, we've asked RotoWire senior hockey writer Janet Eagleson and NHL prospect analyst Jon Litterine to tackle some of the topics sure to dominate the conversation leading up to draft day.
(1) Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel are the consensus top two picks. McDavid is set to go No. 1 in the NHL Draft, but is he or Eichel the top choice in dynasty leagues?
Eagleson: McDavid is my top choice, but not by a wide margin. Eichel is damn good and he's the PERFECT fit in the City of Fires. McDavid won't be able to pull off that wrap-around move in the NHL…well, not against big, smart, and tough defenders like Shea Weber, who'll clean his clock. At his peak, McDavid will a 60-goal, 125-point player. Eichel? 50 and 115. There's not a lot of difference there, is there?
Litterine: I love Eichel, but I think it still has to be McDavid. He's the best prospect I've seen since I started doing this. Over their first few seasons especially, I expect McDavid to be more valuable in fantasy leagues. The Oilers still have gigantic holes on their defense and in net, but they have the talent up front to score a lot of goals. I like McDavid's supporting cast (Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov, Leon Draisaitl) far more than I like Eichel's (Evander Kane, Sam Reinhart, Zemgus Girgensons). I expect both to have immediate fantasy value next season, and despite the fact there are rumors of Eichel returning to Boston University for his sophomore season, I see zero percent chance of that happening. The kid simply has nothing left to learn playing college hockey.
(2) This year's forward crop has been viewed as the strongest in a decade, if not longer. Beyond the two stars at the top, which other players can potentially develop into franchise cornerstones?
Eagleson: Mitch Marner is a lot like Patrick Kane; I like him a lot. Those hands are sweet. But a franchise cornerstone? Kane is to Robin as Jonathan Toews is to Batman. Marner will need someone else. William Nylander, perhaps? I'm not as high on Dylan Strome -- who's a Joe Thornton type of guy -- as many are. The question is, would Joe Thornton be as successful if he broke into the league today? My guess is no. But let's set the record straight -- this crop of forwards is pretty good, but it's not 2003 good. That's my benchmark for outstanding draft years -- think Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, Zach Parise, Ryan Kesler, Eric Staal, Patrice Bergeron, Joe Pavelski, David Backes, Jeff Carter, Thomas Vanek and Brent Burns. It's all about perspective.
Litterine: Marner is the only other forward that I can see having that long-term franchise altering impact, and I'm not sure he'll ever get to that level. His odds would certainly be considerably lower than McDavid or Eichel. I'm a big Marner fan. I think he's one of the most dynamic players in the draft and I'm not as worried about his size as other people are. He's a smart player and he doesn't get hit often. He's very similar to Patrick Kane and Johnny Gaudreau in that regard. I like Dylan Strome too, but I don't think he has as much upside as Marner does. I'm more worried about Strome's skating than I am any facet of Marner's game.
(3) Noah Hanifin looks like the top defenseman on the board. Can he have an Aaron Ekblad-like impact in 2015-16, or is his development curve going to be longer?
Eagleson: No, no and NO -- is that emphatic enough for you? Hanifin has Duncan Keith or Erik Karlsson-like skating ability, but he doesn't have the offensive upside of either guy. And he just doesn't have the size and physical maturity of Ekblad. I do hope he's more than Jay Bouwmeester, who's another great skater. But there are places for guys like him, too, if that's "all" he is. I think Hanifin is best served by spending more time in the NCAA. I'll even up that ante and suggest he should spend at least a couple seasons in the AHL to grow his game. It worked for Keith; it will work for Hanifin, too.
Litterine: I do think Hanifin is the top defenseman, in the draft but I'd be shocked if he had an impact next season like Ekblad did in 2014-15. In fact, I don't expect him to play in the NHL next season, and if it was my decision, I would definitely leave him in college for one more year. The learning curve almost always tends to be longer for defensemen, and whatever team takes him isn't going to be winning anything this year.
(4) Who are some of the top goalies in the class, and how does this year's crop compare to previous ones?
Eagleson: There's no world-class goalie in this year's draft. But I do like Ilya Samsonov, who is the best goalie to come out of Russia in a long time. Hey -- he might be the best goalie from anywhere to go in the draft. He's big, with solid technique and outstanding athleticism. It's actually kind of nice to see acrobatic goaltending return to the game. I have a hard time with the Francois Allaire-inspired puck blockers. MacKenzie Blackwood out of Barrie (OHL) should become a starter in six or seven years, and might be in the NHL's top 10 or 15 guys some day.
Litterine: Last year wasn't a great year for goalies and neither is this one. I didn't have any goalies ranked amongst my top-30 prospects for last year, and this year I only have one (Samsonov). Blackwood is widely viewed as the top North American goalie, but he's a project. He's a big kid who has some talent but is learning to play the game. There's also Callum Booth from Quebec (QMJHL), who took playing time away from Zach Fucale as the year went along. I like Samsonov more than I liked any goaltender last year (I think he looks awfully similar to Andrei Vasilevskiy at the same age, and not just because theyre both Russian), but I like last year's goaltending class more than this one. It just seems like last year had more long-term upside plays (Brandon Halverson, Vitek Vanecek, Jonas Johansson, Ville Husso, Igor Shesterkin) than this one does.
(5) Where in the first round does the talent drop off? Which slot in the draft would you not want?
Eagleson: Ha! After one. And then after two. And then around 10 again, maybe 12. There's a bunch between 15 and 20 that are all relatively interchangeable. Seriously, it sucks to the Phoenix at three, especially if they take Strome and he turns into another Martin Hanzal.
Litterine: I think there are three clear tiers in this draft: picks one and two (McDavid & Eichel), picks three to six (Marner, Hanifin, Strome, Zachary Werenski) and then picks eight to 12 (Ivan Provorov, Timo Meier, Mikko Rantanen, Pavel Zacha, Kyle Connor). In my opinion, once you get past those 12 guys, you're in a bit of trouble. There's still guys on the board that are plenty talented, but they all seem to have potential risks.
(6) Who do you view as some of the more underrated prospects in the class? Overrated?
Eagleson: Overrated? I think both Strome and Hanifin are somewhat overrated. Don't get me wrong -- I like both. But both could plateau in places where they don't give fantasy owners the best offensive bang for their name value. And as much as I love Lawson Crouse, I think he's a third-line guy. It hurts to say that. Underrated? The Hockey News has Rantanen at 12th overall, and that's far too low. I would probably pick Provorov over Hanifin in a keeper league, simply because he will deliver in all categories -- the guy throws his weight around. And the team that gets Travis Konecny -- somewhere in the 10-to-13 range -- could be getting the next Zach Parise.
Litterine: The overrated one if easy for me -- it's Crouse. The size is there and I think he's a good prospect, but I don't think he should be ranked nearly as highly as he is. I have him ranked 16th, and there's another half dozen players that I would consider instead of him. Everyone is convinced that Crouse is going to be a top-10 pick, and I'd never pay that price in a million years. My three most underrated would be forwards Jeremy Bracco and Zachary Senyshyn and defenseman Mitchell Vande Sompel. Bracco is dropping because of a perceived poor attitude, Senyshyn isn't ranked high because he didn't get enough playing time, and Vande Sompel is extremely small (5-foot-10, 180 pounds). I think Bracco can be a second-line center, Senyshyn has the potential to really break out next year when he gets more ice time, and Vande Sompel has the potential to be a power play quarterback. All three could fall into the second round.
(7) How does the international class stack up? Who are the top talents?
Eagleson: A lot of international-born guys are actually playing in the CHL this year. Provorov is my top guy born outside North America, but he's a product of the WHL -- he's more Canadian than some Canadians. So stripping away guys in the CHL and NCAA, I would tap Rantanen again as the best -- his four goals at World Juniors were half of Finland's entire output! Oliver Kylington would be my next pick -- he's out of Sweden. But like Jake Gardiner, Kylington has a great set of tools, but a crummy tool box to put them in. Boom or bust.
Litterine: I don't think it's a particularly impressive European class. I have a first-round grade on three European players: Rantanen, Kylington, and Samsonov (I'm not counting Europeans who are playing in the CHL). I think three other guys, forward Joel Ek-Eriksson and defensemen Gabriel Carlsson and Jacob Larsson could sneak into the back half of Round 1. Every year there are European players who have a ton of ability, but are selected after the first round. Pavel Buchnevich fit the bill in 2013, as did Vladislav Kamenev and Ville Husso last year. That being said, it's anyone guess which of these European players will end up being successful NHL players. There are too many variables.
(8) Who are some players expected to go outside of the first round who could offer value down the road?
Eagleson: I think Filip Chlapik could surprise. He's probably a mid-second round guy, simply because of his awkward wheels. But he has first-round skills and smarts, and is still very raw. Guys like that can explode. And he's already patient in possession. He profiles as a scoring center if he can work out those kinks in his skating. And I'll go off the board and tap tiny Dante Salituro from the Ottawa 67s as a guy to watch. He's absolutely electrifying with the puck and is one of the OHL's best snipers. And like the Brendan Gallaghers and Johnny Gaudreaus before him, Salituro doesn't shy away from the dirty areas of the ice. All he needs is some added muscle and he could be the next slippery, little net nut. But Senyshyn from the Soo Greyhounds could be the quietest high-upside guys in the draft. Why? That Soo team was loaded with older prospects, yet he seriously held his own offensively, even in the playoffs. He finished second in the OHL rookie scoring chase and is blistering fast -- think Matt Duchene-flying-down-the-wing kind of fast. Some team will get him in the bottom half of the second round; the rest of the teams will wonder why they passed him over after he explodes next season and the one after that. He's a classic late bloomer and a potential star.
Litterine: I mentioned Bracco and Vande Sompel before, two guys who seem likely at this point to go outside the first round. There are two power forwards I like who figure to be second or third rounders, and that's Alexander Dergachev from Russia and A.J. Greer from Boston University. The biggest complaint about Dergachev (besides the fact that no one knows if he ever plans to come to North America) is that he doesn't have that touch around the net you're looking for despite the size (6-foot-4, 205 pounds). I think he has the frame to be successful. It's not hard to score if you do most of your damage from within five feet of the front of the net. Greer had a tough transition going from high school hockey to the Hockey East. He was a healthy scratch on many occasions and got limited ice time on the nights when he did dress. He only scored three goals and seven points in 37 games this year, but he got better as the season went along, and I could see his numbers rising dramatically in his sophomore season. Two offensive-minded defenders who could eventually offer some fantasy value are Travis Dermott from Erie (OHL) and Ryan Pilon (the nephew of former NHLer Rich Pilon) from Brandon (WHL). Both played on elite teams this year and while the biggest complaint on Dermott is that he's small (5-foot-11, 180 pounds), the biggest complaint about Pilon is that at 6-foot-2, 210 pounds, he doesn't use his size enough. I also like winger Dmytro Timashov from Quebec (QMJHL). He is undersized (5-10, 185 pounds) and isn't a great skater, but is an offensive dynamo that was a finalist for CHL Rookie of the Year in his first season in North America.
(9) The likely top pick in 2016, Auston Matthews, is reportedly preparing to play next season in Europe, rather than taking the more conventional route of the CHL or the NCAA. Do you foresee more North American players following Matthews' lead over time?
Eagleson: No, I don't. It's a money grab and a publicity stunt. And at the end of the day, Matthews will discover there's a lot more attention and coverage here than there, regardless of the power of the interweb ;) #BadAdvice.
Litterine: I don't see many players going that route. It only really works if you have a kid who is very advanced for his age (Matthews qualifies as such). I think it's even less likely that you'll see any Canadian players try it. 95 percent of Canadian kids end up in the CHL. Occasionally, you'll get a Canadian prospect who decides to go to college in the United States, but even that's becoming more and more rare.
(10) During the 2014 draft, we saw James Neal get traded from the Penguins to the Predators in exchange for Patric Hornqvist. What players could be on the move this year?
Eagleson: Oh boy -- who couldn't? Patrick Sharp is obvious. Ditto Ryan O'Reilly and Dion Phaneuf. Cam Talbot might actually be a fit in St. Louis -- they need a goalie and they have a solid team system. And it's not that much of a stretch to think the Oil might try to trade for the rights to Antti Niemi before the deadline -- Todd McLellan knows him and he could provide some stability to that squad while they continue to build. It'd only take a draft pick to pull that one off -- the Sharks won't be touching him with a 10-foot pole. But one of the biggest moves of all could come out of New York. Rick Nash has a no-trade clause and three years on a deal with a $7.8 million hit. And on July 1, that no-trade becomes a partial no-trade. That would be a biggie, but it would free up some much-needed space to re-up Derek Stepan, Carl Hagelin and J.T. Miller.
Litterine: The two most obvious guys that are going to be dealt would seem to be Phil Kessel and Phaneuf. The Leafs want to change the entire culture of their team, and dumping those two guys would be a good start. Two other names I'd keep an eye on are Talbot and Sharp. The Rangers need draft picks and prospects to replenish their farm system, and Talbot is arguably their most valuable trade chip. Chicago just needs to clear cap space try to re-sign Brandon Saad. The Hawks seem to keep winning no matter who they have in their lineup. I don't think the loss of Sharp would make a huge difference.