This article is part of our Yahoo PGA DFS Picks series.
Valspar Championship
Palm Harbor, Florida
Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course) - Par 71 - 7,340 yards
Field - 144 entrants
Purse - $7.8M
The Preview
A five-day marathon broke out at THE PLAYERS Championship, but we've officially reached the fourth and final leg of the Florida Swing as the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook plays host to a surprisingly decent field that features five representatives from the top 10 in the Official World Golf Ranking. Retaining a common theme of challenging layouts throughout the Florida Swing, the Valspar Championship is a difficult test with only two champions surpassing the 10-under-par mark over the last eight editions of the event.
The "Snake Pit" is an infamous three-hole closing stretch at Innisbrook that generally plays around 0.55 strokes over par, while all five of Copperhead's lengthy par-3s measure between 195 and 235 yards. Per usual, it's essential to take advantage of the par-5s, but driving accuracy also plays a key role as the rough has been lengthened and long-iron shots are abundant, with an average of 47.1 percent of approaches coming from over 175 yards. Thankfully, there isn't much precipitation in the forecast after tee-time split strategies were all the rage last week, but slightly cooler temperatures might arrive for the start of Sunday's final round.
Recent Champions
2021 - Sam Burns
2020 - None
2019 - Paul Casey
2018 - Paul Casey
2017 - Adam Hadwin
2016 - Charl Schwartzel
2015 - Jordan Spieth
2014 - John Senden
2013 - Kevin Streelman
2012 - Luke Donald
Key Stats to Victory
SG: Approach
Par-3: 200-225 efficiency
Driving accuracy
Par-5 scoring
Yahoo Value Picks
Based on $200 salary cap
Cream of the Crop
Collin Morikawa - $49
Morikawa's missed cut at THE PLAYERS is not even remotely concerning, and it can be spun as a positive if it helps limit his rostership this week as he also carries the highest price tag on the salary board. The world No. 2 will be making his Innisbrook Resort debut, but the Copperhead Course should set up perfectly for Morikawa as it rewards accuracy off the tee and quality long-iron play. Morikawa obviously excels in both areas, but he's also second in P3: 200-225 efficiency and eighth in SG: Putting over his last 12 measured rounds.
Viktor Hovland - $47
Hovland missed the cut at the WM Phoenix Open last month upon returning to the states after his win at the Dubai Desert Classic, but he's since rattled off finishes of T4-T2-T9 from the Genesis Invitational through THE PLAYERS Championship while ascending to a career-best third in the OWGR. Over these last 12 rounds, he's No. 1 among this week's field in a handful of metrics, including SG: Approach, par-5 scoring, P4: 450-500 efficiency, SG: Tee-to-Green and proximity from 175-200 yards. The ball striking has been so elite that he managed to place top 10 at TPC Sawgrass last week despite losing a collective 5.8 strokes on and around the greens. Additionally, Hovland tied for third in his Valspar debut last year when he paced the event in birdies with 22 total tweeters.
Glue Guys
Alex Noren - $35
Following Paul Casey's (undisclosed) withdrawal from the Valspar, Noren now sits second behind only Hovland in SG: Approach over their past 12 rounds. Within this same sample size, Noren also resides fifth in par-5 scoring, sixth in SG: T2G, 11th in P4: 450-500 efficiency and 15th in bogey avoidance. He's made five consecutive cuts since the Farmers Insurance Open, adding top-6 results at the WM Phoenix Open and the Honda Classic. During his maiden voyage to Innisbrook in 2021, Noren led the field in par-3 scoring on the way to a T21.
Keegan Bradley - $34
What could go wrong with a chalky Keegan Bradley? It's really tough to fade the 35-year-old vet as he comes off a top-5 performance at TPC Sawgrass where he gained a tournament-best 11.4 strokes from tee to green, though he also lost strokes putting for the sixth time in his last seven starts. Bradley finished runner-up here in Palm Harbor last year, earning first-round leader honors in the process. Over his past 12 rounds, he ranks fifth in Prox: 200-plus and sixth in Opportunities Gained.
Adam Hadwin - $31
Hadwin returns to the site of his 2017 victory in admirable form as he's placed T26 or better in four of six starts dating to The American Express, including a T9 at THE PLAYERS where he gained 4.2 strokes with his irons and 5.7 with the flat stick. The Canadian is second in Prox: 200-plus, sixth in Prox: 175-200, seventh in Opportunities Gained and eighth in bogey avoidance over his last 12 rounds as well.
Bargain Bin
Martin Laird - $25
Laird has failed to advance to the weekend in four straight trips to the Copperhead Course, but he grades well enough to earn the No. 2 spot in my custom model over his last 24 rounds as he ranks third in driving accuracy, third in Prox: 200-plus and sixth in SG: Tee-to-Green during this stretch. His putter was ice cold throughout his past three starts, which presents an opportunity to buy low and hope for some positive regression on the greens. He certainly showed this was possible at the WM Phoenix Open and the Shriners Children's Open earlier this season, when he picked up a combined 8.6 strokes on the greens across those two events alone.
Russell Knox - $23
This is Knox's second-highest Yahoo salary of the entire season and it's still too low, given he's made the cut in five consecutive starts and just tied for sixth at THE PLAYERS Championship. In Ponte Vedra Beach last week, Knox not only gained 7.9 strokes from tee to green, but he also finished on the positive side of SG: Putting for the first time since the Sony Open. Over his past 24 rounds, Knox is second in SG: Approach, fourth in SG: T2G, 13th in FIR percentage and 19th in bogey avoidance.
Adam Svensson - $23
Svensson is now several weeks removed from a rough final round at the Honda Classic that nearly caused him to fall outside the top 10 at PGA National, which preceded a missed cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Regardless of his recent finishing positions, he's still gained a collective 14 strokes from tee to green across his last three starts. Putting is definitely a concern, but Svensson also ranks second in Prox: 150-175 yards and 19th in par-5 scoring over his past 24 measured rounds.
