Weekly Preview: PGA Championship

PGA Championship

TPC Harding Park
San Francisco, CA

The PGA Tour heads to San Francisco this week for the long-delayed first major of 2020. The PGA Championship has jumped all over the schedule in recent years, from the final major, to the second major, and now thanks to the stoppage in play, the first major of the season. The PGA Championship has long been the forgotten major, but this year it earns special prominence, as golf fans have arguably never had more of an appetite for major championship golf. 

The storylines this week are many, and while COVID-19 hovers over it all, there are some interesting things taking place on the course. For starters, it's rare that the PGA Championship is held on the West Coast, but that's the case this year. Sure, it's a little annoying that the tee times start later in the day, but that means we also get action well into the evening. Tiger Woods will tee it up for just the second time since play resumed. Oh, and then there's the possible three-peat from Brooks Koepka, who up until two weeks ago looked nothing like the two-time defending champion, but suddenly appears to have a real shot to successfully defend his titles. Other than Koepka, the top two players in the OWGR, Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm, come in having recently won a tournament. Three of the best golfers in the world enter this week at or near top form. What more could you want?

LAST YEAR

Brooks Koepka shot a final-round 74 on his way to a two-stroke victory over Dustin Johnson.

FAVORITES

Brooks Koepka (10-1)

From what I can see Koepka did not open as the favorite, but with good reason the money came in on him quick, and he is now the co-favorite. Koepka looked like a mess just two weeks ago at the 3M Open, but just a week later, he looked like a major contender once again. Several golfers have an argument for "best golfer in the world" right now, but given the results the last few years there's little debate Koepka is the best golfer when it comes to major championships.                    

Justin Thomas (10-1)  

Even without a win this past week at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, Thomas would have been near the top of the odds chart. But with that win, he's a clear favorite heading into the year's first major. The only thing working against Thomas this week is the fact it's particularly difficult to win two Tour events in a row, especially when the back leg is a major. Other than that, there's no reason at all to think Thomas will struggle this week.                        

Rory McIlroy (12-1)

McIlroy is once again among the favorites, and once again it's solely because of the public perception. Based on his form since play resumed or his results in majors over the past five years, no one in their right mind would pick McIlroy to win, but here he is again near the top of the odds chart. I get it, he's loaded with talent, he's won several majors already and he was on fire just a few months ago. However, he hasn't shown his best form the last couple months and I doubt he finds it at a major.

THE NEXT TIER

Patrick Cantlay (25-1)

It's easy to get caught up in recent results and take the "hot golfer," but there are plenty guys out there with the talent to win. Cantlay is one of them, even if he is coming off a poor performance at the WGC event. I should rephrase; he played poorly during the first two rounds, but played as well as anyone over the weekend, which gives me hope he figured things out.                          

Webb Simpson (25-1)

Flashy he is not, but consistent he is. Simpson is in the midst of an excellent season and he's no stranger to major championship golf. He has one major under his belt, which means there's no concern about "major pressure," and he's playing the best golf of his life. The PGA Championship hasn't been his best major, but it's a new track every year, and considering his form, he should have no issues contending.                        

Jason Day (25-1)

Day had a rough go of it the past couple years, but about a month ago he started to turn his game around and hasn't slowed down since. Now he gets a crack at the major where he's had the most success in his career, including his only major win in 2015.

LONG SHOTS

Daniel Berger (40-1)  

I sense some hesitation with Berger, perhaps because of his elongated slump after a couple of strong seasons, but what started as a nice bounceback season has turned into a spectacular year. Berger has three top-3s in four starts since the restart. His form is solid right now, and the only concern is his history in majors, which isn't great.

Gary Woodland (50-1)  

You don't want to go too far off the beaten path when selecting potential major winners. There was a time when guys came out of nowhere to win majors, but it's not that common anymore, so it's best to contain your picks to those that have either won a major or have an abundance of talent. Woodland has plenty of talent, and he also has a major. While his form isn't at its peak right now, he has notched a couple Top-10s since the restart.                          

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Brooks Koepka - Had Koepka performed poorly this past week in Memphis this would have been an interesting selection. As it is, nearly everyone playing the OAD format will have some interest in Koepka. Those that aren't on him will likely go with Thomas. It's all about the chalk this week and the only question is, can you afford to just keep up or do you need to make a move?

Moderately-owned Pick: Jason Day - It's hard not to pick one of the big guns this week, but if you need to make a move, you could roll with Day and hope that Koepka and JT somehow falter. Hey, it's not a great plan, but this is golf, and weird things happen all the time.                    

Lightly-owned Pick: Daniel Berger - It's crazy to think that a golfer that has posted top-3s in three of his past four starts would be a sleeper this week, but this a major and OAD players tend to think differently in these events. Berger is on fire right now, but OAD players will have a hard time pulling the trigger on him. If you need to make a move, Berger deserves plenty consideration.

Buyer Beware: Rory McIlroy - As mentioned previously, I'm skeptical about McIlroy's chances this week. Since the new wave of young players hit the PGA Tour around 2015, McIlroy has failed to capture a major. Perhaps it's just bad luck or bad timing or perhaps he has a mental block. Whatever the case, his form is nowhere near where it needs to be right now.                              

Last Week: Justin Thomas (1) $1,820,000 Season - $5,170,071  

This Week: Brooks Koepka - The win by JT this past week put me back in a good spot, which affords me the opportunity to use Koepka here. I've been waiting all season to deploy Koepka in a major and my top two choices were the PGA Championship and the U.S. Open. Considering his form looks pretty good now, this seems like the optimal spot.

FANDUEL PICKS  

Upper Range: Brooks Koepka ($11,400)
Middle Range: Jason Day ($9,900)
Lower Range: Chez Reavie ($8,500)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: N/A

This Week: Brooks Koepka - There are several good options this week, but I can envision a scenario where each of them miss the cut. I can't say the same for Koepka, as he gets so locked-in during majors and his game looks good. The only possible way he misses the cut at Harding Park is if last week was just a fluke, but that's seems highly unlikely.