This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Port Royal G.C.
Southampton, Bermuda
The PGA Tour heads to Bermuda for the another edition of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship.
Well, this is it. Crunch time for those guys near spot 125 on the FedEx Cup points list. When the PGA Tour went back to the calendar year instead of the wrap-around schedule, one of the features was getting back to the drama of having guys battle it out for the final cards for the following year. While we aren't always treated to a lot of drama, the possibilities are often there. For these select few that have their fates resting on the outcome of this week and next week's events, the pressure is immense. It's not "leading a major down the stretch for the first time" intense, but it's a pretty big deal. Imagine you are at your desk, working on a project that will determine if you stay with your current company next year, which you love, or if you'll be demoted to another company, which doesn't pay nearly as well. Sure, these guys are mostly making big bucks, so it's hard to feel bad for most of them, but everyone who dedicates their life to their craft wants to play at the highest level and losing that chance can be devastating. As we watch these final two events, we'll have focus on those at the top of the leader board as well as those hoping to stick around full time on the PGA Tour next season.
All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 11:30 AM ET Wednesday.
FAVORITES
Seamus Power (16-1)
Once again we get a field that doesn't have much firepower, so we get some newer faces at the top of the odds chart. Power has had his moments over the past few years on the PGA Tour. He has been in the top-70 that make the FedExCup Playoffs each of the last two seasons, so he's no slouch, but he's definitely not used to being the favorite. He does however have a lot of things going for him this week, including some good form with top-15s in three of his past four starts and a win at this event in 2022.
Maverick McNealy (16-1)
McNealy seems like he's ready to take off to another level, but he can't quite find his way. He bounced back this season after a poor 2023 season, but it feels like there's more to come. McNealy hasn't played this event since 2020, but he fared pretty well in his two starts before then. He's also coming off a 6th place finish in his most recent start. He should play well this week, but being installed as the co-favorite seems like a bit too much.
Mackenzie Hughes (20-1)
There are generally three reasons a golfer shows up as one of the favorites in the fall: form, potential or name. For Hughes, it's definitely form that vaults him to the top of the list. Hughes had a pretty good regular season, but he's really turned it up in the fall with a T4 at the Procore Championship in September and a T8 at the Sanderson Farms Championship in early October. Two concerns however are his lack of playing since early October and his familiarity with this course as he's a first-timer at this event.
THE NEXT TIER
Doug Ghim (20-1)
For some reason, I'm having a hard time getting away from Ghim this fall. Perhaps it's that I feel like he's on the brink of a win and I don't want to miss out. Whatever the reason, I'm going to stick it out as long as he keeps playing well. Ghim posted a top-20 this past week in Mexico, which continued an impressive string of outcomes this fall. His track record here isn't great, but he's getting better each year, so I would expect his previous results just about everywhere to be lacking a bit.
Justin Lower (25-1)
Speaking of a guy with a lot going for him this week, Lower is coming off a runner-up showing this past week in Mexico, and he's got a strong track record here, so it would seem that everything is lining up for a strong showing. Lower is safely inside the top-125 for the second consecutive season, so there's no added pressure, but he's got a taste for contending now and hopefully he uses that to find a victory soon. Lower has yet to finish outside the top-20 in three starts here.
Matti Schmid (30-1)
Schmid missed the cut in Mexico this past week, but other than that, he has a lot going for him this week. Okay, so it's rarely a good idea to take a guy off a missed cut, but plenty of golfers have won events after missing the cut a week prior. It's not optimal, but it shouldn't exclude the golfer from your list. Prior to the MC last week, Schmid had posted a T3 and a T5, so as you can see, momentum flows both ways. He also posted a 3rd-place finish at this event last year, so he's likely to have some good vibes returning to this course.
LONG SHOTS
Nico Echavarria (33-1)
I subbed for the FanDuel article this past week and in that piece I mentioned how Echavarria was at a crossroads after winning his second title on the PGA Tour. The previous time that he won saw a dramatic drop off in his play, which is not all that uncommon, but it showed a level of complacency, and I wondered if that would be there after his second win. If this past week is any indication, then I'd say that he's turned a corner because he landed in the top-10 in his first start since winning the ZOZO Championship.
Vince Whaley (60-1)
When we get to the longshots at these events with thinner fields, you're really reaching, but with a weaker field comes more opportunity for guys like Whaley. Whaley has played pretty well this fall, with two top-20s in his past four starts and he's played well here before with two top-10s in his past two tries here. He also came close to winning in a similar circumstance earlier this year at the Barracuda Championship where he finished runner-up.
ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES
Highly-Chosen Pick: Seamus Power - Of the three favorites, it looks like Power has the best chance to play well. Power has improved steadily over the past five years, but unless he plays well this week, his numbers this year will show a dip from this last season. With that said, his chances of a strong finish seem pretty high.
Moderately-Chosen Pick: Matti Schmid - Schmid has a lot going for him and the MC this past week should actually work in your favor if you plan to use him this week, as missed cuts often scare away OAD players. I'm expecting Schmid to put that MC behind him early, however, as he's had plenty of success here in the past.
Lightly-Chosen Pick: Nico Echavarria - As someone who grabbed Echavarria on his team after his first win in 2023, I can say that he can be maddening at times, but I do think he's turned a corner simply by playing well in his first start after a win. I think he's ready to take his game to the next level and if that's the case, we're going to see him play well in Bermuda.
Buyer Beware: Any golfer near the top-125 - This isn't to say that everyone near the bubble is going to fall flat this week, it's just a reminder that just because someone needs to play well, doesn't mean they will. This list of players would include Daniel Berger, Joel Dahmen and Wesley Bryan among others. Again, they're all capable of playing well, but everyone here is highly motivated to play well, not just the guys near the top-125.
FANDUEL PICKS
Upper Range: Justin Lower ($11,100)
Middle Range: Nico Echavarria ($9,400)
Lower Range: Wesley Bryan ($8,800)
