This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
I started following golf in the late '90s, you know, right as Tiger Woods hit the scene. Being somewhat unfamiliar with the game, I didn't realize how difficult it was to win multiple times per season or even a single major. As the years wore on, my misconceptions about the ease of winning on the PGA Tour continued to grow as Woods dominated year after year.
As Woods' reign ended, we looked for the next Supernova. Not just a star, but someone who could fill the shoes of the Chosen One. Although there have been many golfers who looked the part for short periods, none appear to have the upside of Dustin Johnson. Johnson was the unquestioned No. 1 player in the world 12 months ago, but after an off-the-course injury in April, he was never the same. Johnson played so well entering the Masters last year there was almost a feeling among golf fans that we had been cheated by not getting to see just how high his ceiling was. Instead of witnessing something special from DJ last season, we had to "settle" for amazing seasons from both Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth. DJ was present for the final three majors, but he never seemed quite right after slipping down the stairs.
However, just four rounds into the 2018 portion of the season, DJ certainly appears right. Interestingly, while DJ was out last season, the aforementioned Thomas and Spieth gained even more confidence and that confidence will be tested
I started following golf in the late '90s, you know, right as Tiger Woods hit the scene. Being somewhat unfamiliar with the game, I didn't realize how difficult it was to win multiple times per season or even a single major. As the years wore on, my misconceptions about the ease of winning on the PGA Tour continued to grow as Woods dominated year after year.
As Woods' reign ended, we looked for the next Supernova. Not just a star, but someone who could fill the shoes of the Chosen One. Although there have been many golfers who looked the part for short periods, none appear to have the upside of Dustin Johnson. Johnson was the unquestioned No. 1 player in the world 12 months ago, but after an off-the-course injury in April, he was never the same. Johnson played so well entering the Masters last year there was almost a feeling among golf fans that we had been cheated by not getting to see just how high his ceiling was. Instead of witnessing something special from DJ last season, we had to "settle" for amazing seasons from both Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth. DJ was present for the final three majors, but he never seemed quite right after slipping down the stairs.
However, just four rounds into the 2018 portion of the season, DJ certainly appears right. Interestingly, while DJ was out last season, the aforementioned Thomas and Spieth gained even more confidence and that confidence will be tested if peak DJ hangs around all season.
There was a time not too long ago on the PGA Tour where one man dominated. With so much talent on the current PGA Tour, it was thought that no one could dominate in such a way again, yet one guy has the physical talent to do just that, and he's off to a good start this year.
This week: Sony Open - Waialae Club Country - Honolulu
Last Year: Justin Thomas shot a final-round 65 on his way to a seven-stroke victory over Justin Rose.
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER
Justin Thomas
Thomas won last year going away and has one additional top-10 in three starts here. It's not a lot, but compared to the rest of the field, it looks pretty stellar. Thomas did not play well last week, but he finished with a solid 67, so perhaps he's back on track. It's certainly a big risk using Thomas in a one-and-done format, but he could help you get out to a lead if he plays well.
Charles Howell III
Howell has played consistently well at this event over a very long period. Howell has nine top-10s in 16 starts here, but he hasn't cracked the top 5 since 2013. This is the time of the season to use Howell as he's pretty much a non-factor once the PGA Tour moves to Florida, so it's either here or some spot in California.
Brian Harman
After a breakthrough season last year, it will be interesting to see how Harman backs up that effort this year. If last week is any indication, he'll be just fine. Harman finished solo third last week at the Tournament of Champions, and his track record here is good enough to put him in the mix as well. Harman has finished in the top 20 three consecutive years at this event, and it's highly likely that he makes it a fourth consecutive year after this week.
Jimmy Walker
If you're feeling lucky, you might want to take a chance with Walker this week. Walker, as you probably know, is coming off a season marred with illness as he discovered he was dealing with Lyme disease a few months in. He never regained his previous form last season, but perhaps the additional time off will put him in a better spot. If he's anywhere near his old self, he'll be a contender this week as he won this event in 2014 and 2015.
Jerry Kelly
If you're feeling really lucky, you might want to look at Kelly, who prior to last year was very reliable here. Prior to missing the cut here last season, Kelly posted three consecutive top-10s, peaking with a T3 in 2013. Kelly is no lock to score a top-10 or even make the cut for that matter, but that's the definition of a sleeper, and Kelly is certainly a sleeper this week.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Cameron Tringale
Tringale is a borderline guy to begin with, as he hasn't played his best golf the last couple seasons, but he's had couple solid seasons on the PGA Tour, so I feel comfortable listing him here. Tringale has played well in spots throughout his career, but this certainly isn't one of them. Tringale has yet to make a cut here in five starts.
Wesley Bryan
Bryan played very well last season, but he proved to be very streaky and until he breaks that style of play, I'm going to avoid him while he's cold. We know he's cold because he finished T27 in a 34-person field last week at the TOC. Bryan has played this event for the first time last season and missed the cut, so that doesn't help the cause either.
Austin Cook
Will Cook fall victim to the "curse of the early season victory" this season? After one week, it looks like a possibility. I mentioned last week that rookies who win during the fall portion of their rookie season often fail to get much accomplished during the remainder of the season. Last week was Cook's first start since his fall win in and he didn't exactly play well. He has plenty of time to get something done this season, but I'll have to see some more success before pulling the trigger on him.
Xander Schauffele
Schauffele was a non-factor for much of the 2016-17 season, but he caught fire near the end of the season and turned a few good finishes into a win at the Tour Championship. At the time, Schauffele was one of the best golfers on the planet, but time can turn a great golfer into just a good one. In other words, a lot of guys can look pretty darn good at times, but only the truly great ones can do it for long stretches. Schauffele hasn't had time to prove himself yet, but he'll get his chance this season. As for now, I'll take a wait-and-see approach.
Jonas Blixt
Blixt was a winner last season, which gained him entrance into the Tournament of Champions last week, but he didn't take advantage of the small field as he finished in 31st place. Blixt just hasn't played well in Hawaii as evidence by his play last week and his history at this event, where he's missed the cut in three of four starts.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Last week: Pat Perez (T4) - $296,000; Season - $1,489,819
This week: Jimmy Walker - It's certainly a risk taking a guy who has only played once since last August, but this is the time of the year to take risks and quite frankly, Walker has a higher upside that Howell this week.
PGATOUR.COM PICKS
A quick note. Yahoo is no longer offering a fantasy golf game, so we are choosing to use the pgatour.com game this season. There will be a bit of a learning curve, so bear with me early on. From what I've seen, this game is much more complicated as far as the scoring, but in the end, like every game, you want to pick the best players each week.
This Week:
Starters: Justin Thomas, Charles Howell III, Jimmy Walker, Brian Harman
Bench: Jerry Kelly, Gary Woodland
SURVIVOR PICK
Last week: Charles Howell III - (N/A); Streak - 0
This week: Charles Howell III - While I don't like Howell's upside this week, I certainly like him in a survivor format. Howell has played this event 16 times and he has never missed a cut. Nearly everyone will be on Howell this week in this format, so from that aspect, the reason not to take him is to get a leg up on the masses.
