Phoenix Open Preview: Which Way Watson?

Phoenix Open Preview: Which Way Watson?

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

As the golfers who failed to finish their rounds Sunday teed it up Monday, there were two potential narratives in play. The first was that Brandt Snedeker, who shot an amazing 69 in ridiculously poor conditions Sunday, would win the Farmers Insurance Open on Monday while not making a single stroke. The other narrative was that Snedeker, who shot a monumental 69 in historically bad conditions, would somehow lose Monday while not making a stroke, thanks in large part to improved conditions.

Fortunately for Snedeker, and golf fans everywhere, conditions did not improved much, if at all Monday, so the rightful winner was crowned. Nobody said life or sports, or most certainly golf, is fair, but there was something about the specter of Brandt Snedeker's final-round 69 failing to result in a win that seemed flat-out wrong. The weather, though, saw fit to challenge the remaining players once again Monday and the rest is history, and what history it is.

Snedeker's round of 69 likely will go down as one of the greatest in the history of the game. Sure, it wasn't during a major or even during the Players, like Davis Love III's final-round 64 in 2003 in similar conditions, but it will be remembered as an incredible feat. It's performances like this that make us wonder how good Snedeker can be. He's been on cusp of greatness for a while now, but many a golfer has reached the cusp only to fade away. Snedeker has a real chance

As the golfers who failed to finish their rounds Sunday teed it up Monday, there were two potential narratives in play. The first was that Brandt Snedeker, who shot an amazing 69 in ridiculously poor conditions Sunday, would win the Farmers Insurance Open on Monday while not making a single stroke. The other narrative was that Snedeker, who shot a monumental 69 in historically bad conditions, would somehow lose Monday while not making a stroke, thanks in large part to improved conditions.

Fortunately for Snedeker, and golf fans everywhere, conditions did not improved much, if at all Monday, so the rightful winner was crowned. Nobody said life or sports, or most certainly golf, is fair, but there was something about the specter of Brandt Snedeker's final-round 69 failing to result in a win that seemed flat-out wrong. The weather, though, saw fit to challenge the remaining players once again Monday and the rest is history, and what history it is.

Snedeker's round of 69 likely will go down as one of the greatest in the history of the game. Sure, it wasn't during a major or even during the Players, like Davis Love III's final-round 64 in 2003 in similar conditions, but it will be remembered as an incredible feat. It's performances like this that make us wonder how good Snedeker can be. He's been on cusp of greatness for a while now, but many a golfer has reached the cusp only to fade away. Snedeker has a real chance to become elite this year, but it will take more efforts like the one we saw Sunday to make that happen.

This week:
Phoenix Open - TPC of Scottsdale, Scottsdale, Ariz.

Last Year:
Brooks Koepka shot a final-round 66 on his way to a one-stroke victory over three players including Hideki Matsuyama and Bubba Watson.

PLAYERS TO CONSIDER

Hideki Matsuyama

It's not often that a guy who missed the cut the previous week is atop this list, but Matsuyama wasn't expected to play well last week, so one poor round can be overlooked in this case. Matsuyama is atop this list for his two performances at this event. He's finished inside the top 4 in both of his starts here and should make that 3-3 after this week.

Bubba Watson

This one is a tough call. You are best served using Watson early in the season, but is this the place? He has a tremendous record at some of the upcoming events, so you might be better off waiting a bit, but his record here is strong as well. Watson has finished in the top 5 here three of the last four years, including runner-up showings the last two years.

Phil Mickelson

Mickelson unexpectedly missed the cut last week at the Farmers Insurance Open, but you can chalk that up to a lost battle with the South Course, which is certainly understandable. Prior to that lone round, Mickelson was in good form, and I expect him to find that form again in Scottsdale. His track record here includes two wins and runner-up showing since 2000.

Webb Simpson

Simpson enters this week in fairly decent form with top-20s in his only two starts this season. His track record here is pretty solid as well with three consecutive top-10s.

Ryan Palmer

Oddly enough, Palmer's results this calendar year are exactly the same as Webb Simpsons, T13 at the Sony Open and T17 at the Career Builder Challenge. His track record at this event is a little different, though. While not as consistent at Simpson over his last three starts here, he does have higher-end finishes, including a top-5 and a runner-up showing last year.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

Rickie Fowler

I'm certainly tempting fate putting Fowler atop this list for a second consecutive week, but it paid off last week and all signs are pointing to another rough week for Fowler. The safety blanket, if you will, with fading Fowler is that he'll certainly be a better play later in the year.

K.J. Choi

Choi is certainly in good form entering this week, but he's returning to a site where's he's struggled for the most part over the years. Choi has missed the cut in four of his nine starts here and has never cracked the top 10.

Danny Lee

Lee is struggling to back up last year's breakthrough performance, and if past performances are any indication, his troubles are going to continue for at least one more week. In three attempts here, Lee has yet to make the cut.

Ryo Ishikawa

Ishikawa is the perfect storm this week. He's coming off a missed cut last week. And for the record, he missed by a country mile. His track record here is awful, including three missed cuts in three tries.

Zach Johnson

Johnson has a decent track record here, with four top-25s in six starts, but he doesn't have any high-end finishes and is someone to save for later in the year, specifically the John Deere Classic.

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Last week: Brandt Snedeker (1) - $1,170,000; Season - $2,379,641

This week:
Hideki Matsuyama - Not as clear-cut this week as it was last week, but Matsuyama does look like best pick. If you want to save Matsuyama for later in the year, I would go with Palmer or Simpson this week, both of whom make solid picks.

YAHOO PICKS

Points: 504
Rank: 34,496

This Week:

Group A: Bubba Watson, Phil Mickelson

Group B:
J.B. Holmes, Webb Simpson, Ryan Palmer, Brandt Snedeker

Group C:
Ben Crane, Kevin Na

SURVIVOR PICK

Last week: Brandt Snedeker (1); Streak - 5

This week:
Phil Mickelson - For some reason, I feel like I am tempting fate every time I double-up on my one-and-done pick, so after doing that consecutive weeks, I'm splitting my pick this week. Mickelson has made the cut here in 15 of 19 tries and his form is pretty good entering this week.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Greg Vara
Vara is the lead golf writer at RotoWire. He was named the FSWA Golf Writer of the Year in 2005 and 2013. He also picks college football games against the spread in his "College Capper" article.
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