This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
The Northern Trust
Course: Liberty National Golf Club (7,410 yards, par 71)
Purse: $9,500,000
Winner: $1,710,000 and 2,000 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
The Northern Trust has been the opener of the FedExCup playoffs since its inceptions back in 2007. When the PGA Tour decided to decrease the playoffs from four events to three events in 2019, the Dell Technologies Championship was somewhat merged with the Northern Trust. It was expected to rotate every other year with a New York/New Jersey area course and TPC Boston, but with PGA Tour deciding to award their biggest partner in FedEx the opening playoff event at TPC Southwind, that pretty much means that this is the end of the Northern Trust after this 2021 edition.
The Top-125 players in the FedExCup standings will tee it up at Liberty National this year, marking the fourth time the Jersey City course has hosted the Northern Trust. Heath Slocum won the first playing at Liberty National back in 2009 followed by Adam Scott holding off Tiger Woods in 2013 and Patrick Reed most recently in 2019. Last year, Dustin Johnson put together one of the most impressive stretches of golf we have ever seen all beginning with his 11 stroke victory at TPC Boston. He then was defeated in a playoff by Jon Rahm at the BMW Championship and then won the TOUR Championship and FedExCup the following week. Johnson's 30-under-par total was even more impressive given the fact that no other player in this event's history had done better than 19-under-par for a 72-hole total.
The Northern Trust is the only playoff event of the three to feature a 36-hole cut. At the conclusion of the tournament, the top-70 players in the FedExCup standings will move onto the BMW Championship next week. Collin Morikawa is the No. 1 seed heading into the playoffs after his incredible season that featured wins at the WGC event in Florida early in the season and the Open Championship last month. He is the likely favorite for Player of the Year heading into the playoffs, but a strong postseason run by a number of other players could put their names in the running. One of those is U.S. Open winner and World No. 1 Jon Rahm, who will be making his first start since having to withdraw from the Olympics due to a positive COVID-19 test. Abraham Ancer will tee it up this week following his maiden PGA Tour victory at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. He also finished second back in 2019 when this event was held at Liberty National.
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FedExCup points will be quadrupled each of these next two events, as players try to jockey for position heading into East Lake where the starting positions will be determined by standing with the No. 1 seed getting a two-shot lead at 10-under-par, while seeds 26-30 have to begin their quest for a FedExCup title 10-shots behind at even-par. The weather forecast is about what you would expect this time of year with temperatures in the 80's and a threat of thunderstorms in all four rounds. That should soften the golf course and combine that with the fact there will be very limited wind, and we could see some very low scores this week at Liberty National.
Recent Champions
2020 – Dustin Johnson (TPC Boston)
2019 – Patrick Reed (Liberty National)
2018 – Bryson DeChambeau (Ridgewood)
2017 – Dustin Johnson (Glen Oaks)
2016 – Patrick Reed (Bethpage Black)?
2015 – Jason Day (Plainfield)
2014 – Hunter Mahan (Ridgewood)
2013 – Adam Scott (Liberty National)
2012 – Nick Watney (Bethpage Black)
2011 – Dustin Johnson (Plainfield)
2010 – Matt Kuchar (Ridgewood)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach
- GIR Percentage
- Scrambling
- Total Driving
Champion's Profile
Liberty National gives players generous landing areas, but if you do stray from the short grass it can be pretty penal. Many of the fairway bunkers are deep and can make advancing the ball to the green a challenge. There are also a number of tee shots where water does come into play. SG: Off-the-Tee and total driving stats should be two things to key into, as the course will play fairly long this week. It is primarily a second shot golf course, however. The greens are just below average in size on the PGA Tour, but the targets are made even smaller by a fair amount of undulation that divides many of the greens. That will mean not only hitting greens, but find the correct tiers will be important to setting yourself up with makeable birdie putts and avoiding potential three-putts. The bentgrass surfaces run very smoothly and will reach around 13 on the Stimpmeter. Scrambling numbers need to be accounted for as well considering the difficulties of some of the runoffs around these greens. The greenside bunkers are also no joke as well. Liberty National is a complete test, but hitting as many fairways and greens as possible is the easiest way to find yourself in contention here.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Jon Rahm ($12,000)
Speaking of hitting a lot of fairways and greens, that screams Jon Rahm. He is as rested as anyone going into the playoffs having not played since his T3 at the Open Championship. Rahm leads the Tour in total driving, SG: Total, and scoring average. He is also eighth in SG: Approach, third in GIR percentage, and third in birdie average. It's a surprise anytime Rahm isn't contending on Sunday afternoon.
Collin Morikawa ($11,800)
The two best ball-strikers in the world lead my list of contenders this week. Morikawa has four top-four finishes in his last five starts and ranks first on Tour in SG: Approach, SG: Tee-to-Green, and birdie average. The Cal standout is also 11th in driving accuracy, second in GIR percentage, and fourth in proximity to the hole. If he putts like he did at Royal St. George's we could see a Dustin Johnson like performance in this first playoff event.
Daniel Berger ($10,800)
Berger is in the middle of a late-season surge. He hasn't missed a cut since the Masters, and has a T7 at the U.S. Open, T8 at the Open Championship, and a T5 at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational all in his last four starts. Berger ranks sixth in SG: Approach, eighth in GIR percentage, 30th in SG: Putting, and 28th in scrambling. He is also fifth in scoring average and eighth in SG: Total this season.
Webb Simpson ($10,300)
After a mid-summer lull, Simpson comes into the playoffs with good momentum finishing T19-T15-T7 over his last three starts. He is also one of the few options near the top of the salary board to have played last week and also have played each of the three editions of the Northern Trust at Liberty National going 8th-T15-T18. Simpson ranks top-30 on Tour in driving accuracy, GIR percentage, SG: Around-the-Green, scrambling, and SG: Putting.
Longer Shots with Value
Harris English ($9,800)
He was deeply undervalued back in Memphis where he probably should have won and now this week he is still not cracking five figures. Take advantage of it for one more week as this man has made his last eight cuts with three top-four finishes and five top-15s in that stretch. English is seventh in total driving, 17th in scrambling, and 13th in SG: Putting this season.
Adam Scott ($9,600)
Scott loves himself some Liberty National, winning here back in 2013 and finishing fifth in 2019. He is also coming off a T2 at the Wyndham Championship, where he came just four feet away from winning it on the first playoff hole. The Aussie doesn't have the top-10's we have accustomed from seeing from him in the past, but he has only missed one cut this season in 18 starts. Scott's ball-striking is rounding back into form and his putter has been a pleasant surprise all season.
Russell Henley ($9,000)
Henley has to carry some extra motivation into this week after letting his first win since 2017 slip from his hands last week at the Wyndham Championship. Henley has been one of the most precise ball-strikers on Tour over the last two years. This season he ranks fifth in SG: Approach, 20th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 16th in GIR percentage, and fourth in proximity to the hole. Henley is also top-10 in both scrambling and sand save percentage. The former Georgia Bulldog has four top-20's in his last five starts.
Kevin Streelman ($8,600)
Streelman has had a very consistent last few months. He has finished T26-or-better in seven of his last eight starts, including a T7 last week at the Wyndham Championship. Streelman is lead by his ball-striking where he ranks top-40 on Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee, total driving, SG: Approach, GIR percentage, and SG: Tee-to-Green. Streelman has played in all three editions of the Northern Trust at Liberty National as well.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
It's not often talked about in that category, but the opening playoff event is easily one of the best fields of the entire season. There's quite a few players this week that are under $7,500 that just last week checked in pretty close to the $10,000 range. That gives DFS players plenty of options this week on how they want to play things. Definitely favor players who hit a lot of fairways and greens this week, with scrambling numbers coming into focus right after that. Some top players I would caution before putting them in your lineups are Rory McIlroy ($11,400), Bryson DeChambeau ($11, 200), and Justin Thomas ($11,1000). All of them have had inconsistent results over the last few months and have a tendency to hit a lot of foul balls off the tee. Some bargain bin options I'm also looking at this week are Chris Kirk ($7,700), Doug Ghim ($7,200), and Scott Piercy ($7,100).
