This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
Course: Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club (7,079 yards, par 70)
Purse: $8,500,000
Winner: $1,530,000 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
The 2023 FedExCup Fall features seven tournaments, and the ZOZO Championship in Chiba, Japan will have the strongest field of all of them. While it will only be a 78-man field with no cut, it will feature nine of the top 40 in the OWGR. Xander Schauffele leads the way at No. 6 followed by defending champion Keegan Bradley at No. 16. American Ryder Cup members Collin Morikawa and Rickie Fowler also make the trip over for their first PGA Tour start of the fall along with Fortinet Championship winner Sahith Theegala. The crowd will all be behind Japanese star Hideki Matsuyama who won the ZOZO Championship in 2021 by five strokes and is looking for his first win anywhere since January of 2022.
This limited field was made up mostly of the Top 60 FedExCup Eligibility Points List with a handful of sponsor exemptions. There is still a battle for those players who finished outside the Top 50 in the FedExCup last season to either maintain a PGA Tour card or secure a spot in the two West Coast signature events in early 2024. Getting a spot in this limited-field no-cut event in Japan will certainly help the cause before returning to a traditional open-style field in two weeks at the World Wide Technology Championship in Mexico.
The Narashino course used at the ZOZO Championship will feature nine holes from both the King Course and Queen Course at the country club. Put together it is a par 70 that features five par 3s and three par 5s. Each hole at the Narashino course features two different greens, one used primarily during the winter and one during the summer. As has been the case in past editions of the ZOZO Championship, one hole will be allowed to use their second green in alternating rounds. That will once again be the long par-3 5th hole this week.
It is expected to be dry all week in Chiba, Japan, but players will be tested by some stiff breezes in the first two rounds, particularly on Friday where gusts will be up to 35 mph. After two days in the upper 70s to open the event, daytime highs will dip into the 60s with much lighter breezes. The last two editions of the ZOZO Championship have been won at 15-under-par and that will likely be pretty close to what we see this week if players can make it through a tough second round.
Recent Champions
2022 - Keegan Bradley (-15)
2021 - Hideki Matsuyama (-15)
2020 - Patrick Cantlay (-23) *played at Sherwood Country Club
2019 - Tiger Woods (-19)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach
- GIR Percentage
- Scrambling
- SG: Off-the-Tee
Champion's Profile
The golf course might tip at just under 7,100 yards, but driving distance has been strongly correlated to success over the short history of this event. That being said, the primary rough is still a bit of a challenge at 3.5 inches and water will also come into play on a few tee shots, so players can't just be reckless off the tee with driver. Because there are two greens at the target area, the playable putting surface is on the smaller end for the Bentgrass greens at this week's ZOZO Championship. Iron play will be an easy separator this week, especially during the rounds where the wind kicks up. Because of the small targets, short game numbers will also be an important area to look at. Putting on these greens prepped to run at 12.5 on the Stimpmeter has not traditionally be correlated to success in this event. Just look at the last two champions of Bradley and Matsuyama. For that reason I think we can take a shot with some bad statistical putters and still feel pretty confident about their chances to contend. This is definitely a course where fairways and greens will get the job done.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Cam Davis ($11,100)
Davis continues to shine and has now racked up top-10 finishes in five of six starts. Throw out one off week at Olympia Fields and Davis is averaging 1.6 strokes gained from tee to green per round during that stretch, which would rank third behind only Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy this year. Davis has also gained over 10 strokes with the putter the last two tournaments and is primed to pick up another PGA Tour win.
Keegan Bradley ($10,800)
Bradley has two things working for him this week. For one he absolutely loves Narashino going T13 and T7 in the first two editions before taking the victory a year ago with an impressive final round. The other thing Bradley has is the chip on his shoulder following the Ryder Cup snub. While he last played competitively at the TOUR Championship, you can bet Bradley has been grinding on his game to show to the world that he deserved to be on that American squad in Rome and pick up his second win in seven starts.
Eric Cole ($10,700)
It doesn't matter the week, it doesn't matter the course, it doesn't even matter if this is his 18th event in a row, Cole is becoming someone who you want to try to fit in your lineups. His last missed cut was 14 starts ago and during the stretch since he has racked up seven top-25's. His play in his three fall starts has been impressive with a pair of top-four finishes and a whopping 30.34 strokes gained on approach and around the greens. If he keeps it in the short grass that first PGA Tour win very well might be this week.
Vincent Norrman ($10,400)
I think Norrman will get passed over by a lot of people this week, but I'm really high on the talent of this Swede. He's got a pair of wins in the last four months at the Barbasol Championship and the Horizon Irish Open. Norrman is also without question one of the best ball strikers in this field ranking 21st this season in SG: Off-the-Tee, 12th in total driving and 15th in GIR percentage. Despite some issues with the putter, he is still 25th in birdie average as well.
Longer Shots with Value
Adam Svensson ($9,800)
Svensson checks in at a great price and has been playing some really consistent golf for several months. The Canadian has made eight straight cuts with five top-25 finishes in that stretch. Svensson has turned into a really complete player this season gaining across all strokes gained categories. We're coming up on the one-year anniversary of his first PGA Tour win at The RSM Classic and it wouldn't surprise me to see him pick up another one before then.
Tom Hoge ($9,200)
Hoge has not taken any time off since locking up a top-50 spot in the FedExCup Standings. He played twice in Europe and posted a T14 finish at the BMW PGA Championship before returning to the PGA Tour with a T13 at the Sanderson Farms Championship. Narashino CC fits Hoge's eye going T9-T17 the last two years here. The 34-year-old remains one of the top iron players on Tour ranking ninth in SG: Approach and 10th in proximity to the hole.
Cameron Champ ($8,100)
Champ is one of the highest-upside players in the field. He has really started to figure things out, going T9-T18 the last two weeks and displaying some drastic improvements with the putter. I talked about the high correlation between driving distance and success at Narashino and it should be no surprise that Champ picked up a top-10 finish last year in his first attempt on this course. The three-time PGA Tour winner is now up to 127th in the FedExCup Fall and highly motivated to crack that Top 125.
Ryo Hisatsune ($7,900)
Likely the best pure value in the field this week, don't sleep on Hisatsune. He won the Cazoo Open de France a few weeks ago and is in position to earn a PGA Tour card via his DP World Tour ranking. In 2023 he has racked up seven top-10's and 14 top-30 finishes. Hisatsune ranks inside the Top 20 on the DP World Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee, driving accuracy, GIR percentage, SG: Putting, scoring average and birdies.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
Because of the positioning of this tournament the board is really deep despite there only being 78 players. Some of the players at the top like Schauffele, Morikawa, Fowler and Matsuyama haven't played any competitive tournaments outside the Ryder Cup since the FedExCup Playoffs. I tend to lean towards skipping that upper tier of the board and jump on some of the players who have continued to grind the last several weeks. With there being no cut I think that always lends itself to targeting players who make a lot of birdies and eagles without the worry of a few big numbers. Takumi Kanaya ($8,200), K.H. Lee ($8,000), and Mackenzie Hughes ($7,700) are a few other bargain bin players I'm inclined to take a shot on this week. With the ZOZO Championship taking place in Japan, DFS players need to remember to get their lineups in by 7:45 p.m. ET on Wednesday evening.
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