This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
THE NORTHERN TRUST
Purse: $9.5M
Winner's Share: $1.710M
FedEx Cup Points: 1,500 to the winner (normally 2,000, but reduced in relation to the pandemic-shortened season)
Location: Norton, Mass.
Course: TPC Boston
Yardage: 7,308
Par: 71
2019 champion: Patrick Reed (at Liberty National)
2018 champion: Bryson DeChambeau (at TPC Boston)
Tournament Preview
For the past 10 weeks, the PGA Tour successfully navigated its way through a pandemic. Some of us (me) were skeptical golf would make it this far, but after some early hiccups the Tour has done an admirable job, and now it's time for the playoffs. This is the second year of the three-event format, and we begin with a return to TPC Boston after a one-year hiatus. The Northern Trust was played last year at Liberty National, and it will alternate between the New York area and Boston moving forward.
TPC Boston was a regular on the golf calendar from 2003 to 2018, known foremost as the Deutsche Bank Championship before Dell Technologies took over as the title sponsor the final two years. From 2007 on, the tournament was always the second of the four playoff events, so there is plenty familiarity for the golfers and DFS players alike. The tournament always featured the very popular Monday finish on the long holiday weekend. But now the Tour chooses to end before Labor Day, pandemics notwithstanding.
The top 125 in the FedExCup Standings qualified for the Northern Trust, but Vaughn Taylor (rib) withdrew, so the field sits at 124 -- there are no alternates this week. The cut line will be the top 65 and ties. That means more than half the field will make the cut. That also means a lot -- A LOT -- of golfers in the $6,000 range will play the weekend. The top 70 finishers on the week will advance to the BMW Championship at Olympia Fields outside Chicago before an elite group of 30 reaches the Tour Championship at East Lake. Last year, when the three-event playoffs debuted, four golfers outside the top 70 played their way in at The Northern Trust, with Harold Varner III making the biggest jump from the 102nd position. In part because of the craziness of this season, some big names have a lot of work to do get into the top 70 this week, and not all of them will get there. Most notably: Brooks Koepka (97th), Jordan Spieth (100th), Rickie Fowler (88th), Justin Rose (109th), Tommy Fleetwood (89th), Brandt Snedeker (99th) and Ian Poulter (85th). Most of those guys -- this is not a prediction, just simple math -- will NOT advance past this event.
Tiger Woods is back after a middle-of-the-road performance at the PGA Championship. He is currently 49th in the standings and safely through to the BMW, but if he locks up a spot at East Lake with a high finish, he could consider taking next week week off. Remember, he's really gearing up for the U.S. Open, which will be held just two weeks after the Tour Championship. Woods is part of a star-studded ensemble that has won at TPC Boston. He won in 2006 and has two runners-up through the years. Other prior winners in the field this week are Bryson DeChambeau (2018), Justin Thomas, (2017), Rory McIlroy (2016, 2012), Fowler (2015), Webb Simpson (2011), Charley Hoffman (2010), Phil Mickelson (2007) and Adam Scott, who won the inaugural edition in 2003.
This Arnold Palmer design traditionally was the easiest track the golfers saw during the playoffs. It ranked 37th out of 50 courses in 2018-19. There are a couple of interesting characteristics about TPC Boston. For one, it closes with a par-5, and at a mere 530 yards it's the easiest hole on the course. There were 17 eagles each of the final two years, offering an opportunity for a final-hole swing atop the leaderboard. The beginning of the course is by far the easiest portion: There are one and maybe two drivable par-4s. The first hole is 365 yards, playing as fifth-easiest in 2018. No. 4 is listed as 298 on the official scorecard, and it has traditionally been the second-easiest hole on the course. There's another easy par-5 at No. 2 (542 yards). While DFS players tend to overreact if their guys get off to a slow start Thursday morning, this is one week where it will be warranted, with three of the easiest holes on the course coming within the first four. The two hardest holes appear early on the back nine, long par-4s at No. 12 -- which produced only 23 total birdies in 2018 -- and No. 14, where 30 birdies were carded.
Weather-wise, it should be very comfortable for the golfers, with highs in the low 80s all week. Conditions should be dry until a chance of precipitation comes on the weekend. Winds are expected to be light.
Fun factoids about Boston golf history: The PGA Tour and Boston go back more than a half century together. There was a regular Tour event from 1969 though 1998, and it had 10 -- TEN -- different names through the years, among them the Bank of Boston Classic and the New England Classic. Everybody's favorite, Roger Maltbie, won it in 1975. And David Feherty never came closer to winning in the States than he did in 1994, finishing one stroke behind champion Kenny Perry.
Key Stats to Winning at TPC Boston
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Putting average/Strokes Gained: Putting
• Greens in regulation/Strokes Gained: Approach
• Driving distance/Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
• Birdie-or-Better Percentage
Past Champions
Playoff Opener
2019 - Patrick Reed (Liberty National)
2018 - Bryson DeChambeau (Ridgewood CC)
2017 - Dustin Johnson (Glen Oaks Club)
2016 - Patrick Reed (Bethpage Black)
2015 - Jason Day (Plainfield CC)
2014 - Hunter Mahan (Ridgewood CC)
2013 - Adam Scott (Liberty National)
2012 - Nick Watney (Bethpage Black)
2011 - Dustin Johnson (Plainfield CC)
2010 - Matt Kuchar (Ridgewood CC)
Desutsche Bank/Dell Technologies at TPC Boston
2018 - Bryson DeChambeau
2017 - Justin Thomas
2016 - Rory McIlroy
2015 - Rickie Fowler
2014 - Chris Kirk
2013 - Henrik Stenson
2012 - Rory McIlroy
2011 - Webb Simpson
2010 - Charley Hoffman
Champion's Profile
The TPC Boston winner landed between 15- and 17-under every year from 2014-18, though there were three other instances of 22-under, including Stenson and Hoffman. So this is bordering on a birdie-fest, of not already there. The fairways are pretty wide, the rough isn't all that penal and Arnold Palmer designed this course in 2001 with his attack-mode style of play in mind. DeChambeau, Thomas and McIlroy are all aggressive players. That's not the only way to win this week, but we'll definitely consider those types of golfers who "go for it," especially off the tee. Check out these putting stats for the past eight winners, their ranking in SG: Putting on the bentgrass greens: DeChambeau 6th, Thomas 8th, McIlroy 7th, Fowler 2nd, Kirk 5th, Stenson 10th, McIlroy 2nd, Simpson 1st. All top-10s. The worst of that bunch, Stenson, if we can call him that, was first in greens in regulation. The greens traditionally were among the fastest the golfers saw all season.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Justin Thomas - $11,300 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 12-1)
Thomas is the top guy on the DK board, and well he should be. He's been the best player on Tour all year, even though Jon Rahm currently holds the top spot in the world rankings. Thomas won at TPC Boston in 2017. He has three wins this season and nine top-10s, and he leads the Tour in SG: Approach and SG: Tee-to-Green. 'Nuff said.
Bryson DeChambeau - $11,100 (12-1)
No one on Tour is more aggressive than this guy, and he's even more aggressive now than when he won the final Dell Technologies title in 2018. DeChambeau has matched Thomas with nine top-10s on the season. He leads the Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee. Of all the top-tier players, he is far and away the best putter, ranked fifth in SG: Putting.
Dustin Johnson - $10,400 (20-1)
Johnson is coming off yet another runner-up in a major. He has done almost everything except win at TPC Boston too, with four top-10s through the years, including a tie for seventh in 2018. That's no surprise, since he can let fly off the tee with little trouble awaiting.
Jon Rahm - $10,000 (14-1)
Rahm made a late charge to tie for 13th at the PGA, two events after winning the Memorial to reach No. 1 in the world. His best finish at this course was fourth, when Thomas won in 2017. Unlike Thomas and DeChambeau, he doesn't lead the tour in any SG: category. Instead, he is statistically sound across the board, and seventh in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Tier 2 Values
Jason Day - $9,300 (25-1)
Watch out for Day this week. He's playing his best golf in years and he has flat-out excelled at this track. He has a runner-up, a third, another top-10 and five more top-25s through the years. Day rides four straight top-7 finishes into this week. He is ranked 15th in SG: Tee-to-Green and is a top-50 putter, a great combination.
Patrick Reed - $9,000 (30-1)
Reed drove the ball great last week, and that's a dangerous sign for the other golfers given his elite short game. He was second at the Wyndham Championship in SG: Off-the-Tee. He finished in the top-6 at Boston three years running from 2015 to 2017.
Daniel Berger - $8,900 (35-1)
After debuting with a tie for 12th at the Dell event in 2015, Berger didn't do much the next three years. But he is playing so well now that that hardly matters. Since winning the Charles Schwab to kick-start golf's resumption, he's added a runner-up and a third, plus a tie for 13th last time out at the PGA. He is ranked top-25 in three SG categories -- Off-the-Tee, Putting and Tee-to-Green.
Scottie Scheffler - $8,100 (60-1)
The soon-to-be Rookie of the Year -- yes, it's hard to believe that Scheffler is a rookie -- continues to hold his own against top players in big events. He was in the final group on Sunday at the PGA and wound up tied for fourth. Scheffler has never played TPC Boston, but he had never played Harding Park either. He is very long and aggressive with his driver, ranked ninth on Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee.
Tier 3 Values
This was a tough group. There are so many good players in the $7,000 range -- especially from $7,500 on up -- that you could field an entire six-man lineup from this group and contend.
Matthew Wolff - $7,800 (60-1)
Aside from Thomas and DeChambeau, there might not be a more aggressive player around than Wolff, who has been delivering week after week since the restart. He's coming off a top-5 at the PGA, is ranked 11th in SG: Off-the-Tee and you can't beat this sub-$8,000 price.
Sungjae Im - $7,700 (60-1)
Im was back to his old self with a top-10 at the Wyndham after enduring the biggest funk of his young career. He was third in the Wyndham field in SG: Off-the-Tee and eighth in Tee-to-Green. Like Rahm, he doesn't excel in any one statistic; instead, he is solid without a weakness across the board.
Phil Mickelson - $7,300 (125-1)
Pretty sure that we have not picked Mickelson once this year, but when the conditions call for attack mode, he's your man. Mickelson won at Boston is 2007, added three more top-10s through the years and even tied for 12th in the last go-round in 2018. So the course history surely is here. Plus, it's fun to root for Phil.
Russell Henley - $7,300 (125-1)
Another week, another banner showing for Henley. In tying for ninth at the Wyndham, he was third in GIR and even 21st in SG: Putting. Remember, he's outside the top-150 in putting, so if he can figure that out, watch out. Henley is already third on Tour in both SG: Approach and GIR. He's played Boston six times with only one good finish, but that one was a runner-up in 2014.
Long-Shot Values
Dylan Frittelli - $7,000 (150-1)
Frittelli quietly sits 50th in the point standings. So he's a lock for the BMW field, alleviating the pressure many guys will feel this week. He really has been coming on strong. He tied for 20th at the Wyndham, his third top-25 in his past four starts, the other being a more-than-respectable T33 at the PGA. This will be his Boston debut.
Jason Kokrak - $6,800 (200-1)
Kokrak has had good results here in even-numbered years: 16th in 2014, eighth in 2016 and 24th in 2018. Despite a subpar season on Tour, he's still elite with his driver, ranked eighth in distance and 10th in SG: Off-the-Tee. He's coming off one of his best finishes of the season, a tie for 15th at the Wyndham.
Denny McCarthy - $6,700 (250-1)
McCarthy has missed only four cuts (with one WD) all season, by far his best year on Tour. He added a fourth top-10 last week at the Wyndham to move to 65th in points, giving him a decent shot to make it to Olympia Fields. When you're the top putter on Tour, the chances are good.
Adam Long - $6,600 (250-1)
Long missed out on a 10th top-25 by a little bit, finishing T31 at the Wyndham. He moved up three spots to 21st in the point standings and he just keeps finding ways to get it done week after week. And no matter what he does, DraftKings simply refuses to bump him out of the $6,000s. So we'll continue to play Long at a bargain-basement price.
