DraftKings PGA: The Genesis Invitational Picks and Strategy

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

THE GENESIS INVITATIONAL

Purse: $20M
Winner's Share: $3.6M
FedEx Cup Points: 550 to the Winner
Location: Pacific Palisades, Calif.
Course: Riviera Country Club
Yardage: 7,322
Par: 71
2022 champion: Joaquin Niemann

Tournament Preview

These DraftKings previews often begin with a look at the field: Is it strong? Is it mediocre? Is it the John Deere? (Sorry, cheap shot.) Until a few days ago, it appeared this week's loaded field would be virtually the same as last week's loaded field. Now, though, it will be very different.

That's because the 1,283rd-ranked golfer in the world decided to play.

Tiger Woods decided to play.

Woods tweeted on Friday that "I'm ready to play an ACTUAL PGA Tour event next week @thegenesisinv," and in doing so became the perfect tournament host by giving his guests exactly what they want: him.

When we last saw Woods, he was playing in the PNC Championship with his son Charlie in December. When we last officially saw Woods, he was missing the cut at the Open Championship seven months ago back in July. That was one of only three starts Woods made in all of 2022, the others also coming in majors (Masters, T47 and PGA Championship, WD). Those are the only tournaments Woods has played since his catastrophic one-car accident in Los Angeles almost exactly two years ago, on Feb. 23, 2021.

Woods would have been at Riviera Country Club this week regardless, as host of the tournament that benefits his TGR Foundation. Now, he will take a prominent place alongside all the PGA Tour greats in the second straight super-loaded designated event, after last week's WM Phoenix Open. We'll get to the field, headed by Phoenix winner and new world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler,  in a moment.

Woods made his PGA Tour debut in this, the old Los Angeles Open, his hometown tournament, as a 16-year-old amateur back in 1992. He missed cut. Riviera is the course that Woods has played the most in his career without winning. He's rarely had good weeks in LA. For years, before the tournament became affiliated with his charitable foundation, he didn't even come. Why bother? Woods last played here three years ago and finished in 68th place.

So before you even ask whether Woods is a good DFS play this week at $7,300, you now know he rarely made a dent in his tournament even when he was in his prime. Riviera is not a super hard course to walk, fairly flat other than the downhill first hole and the uphill 18th, but playing 72 holes on his far-from-100-percent right leg will still be a chore. Making the cut would be a monumental achievement this week. Not to pile on, but it will not be very warm in LA this week, and higher temperatures are some of Woods' best friends these days.

The Genesis is one of the grand old tournaments on Tour, dating way back to when the automobile was just coming into vogue. The first edition of the Los Angeles Open came in 1926 and was played at Los Angeles Country Club, site of this year's U.S. Open (North Course). This will be the 97th go-round, and it's been played every year but 1943. Even though showbiz-laden Riviera has been by far the most prominent track in the tournament's history -- this will be its 60th time hosting -- there actually have been 11 different courses in play through the years, including three munis that anyone can still play today: Rancho Park, Brookside and Griffith Park's Wilson course.

The 129-man field will include Scheffler, world No. 2 Rory McIlroy, No. 3 Jon Rahm, 23 of the top-25 in the world and 40 of the top-50, with most of the absentees being LIV guys. There are not a lot of former champions in the field because of all the LIV defections. Max Homa (2021) and Adam Scott (2005, 2020) are the only prominent ones remaining. Both have strong all-around games with no real weakness, and that is the type of golfer we'll be targeting this week, at least at the top of the DraftKings board.

Riviera can be a brutally tough track – the winning score often is close to single digits. Last year, Joaquin Niemann won with the surprising score of 19-under-par, which hadn't been reached since Lanny Wadkins set the tournament record at 20-under in 1985. Two years ago, Homa took the trophy at 12-under, one better than Scott's winning score in 2020. This is one of the few stops on Tour with no water. Instead, tight, tree-lined fairways, penal rough, some very long holes, many undulations and large poa annua greens (averaging 7,500 square feet) force the golfers to use all the clubs in their bag. Riviera annually is among the toughest fairways and greens to hit, usually under 60 percent for both. Every year at this time we hear about the Riviera fairways and rough sodded with kikuyugrass, a gnarly, club-twisting beast that's a rarity on Tour. Kikuyu is tough to navigate without familiarity, and that's why course knowledge takes on added importance this week. That grass is more prominent in Australia and South Africa (hint, hint).

Riviera -- one of two tracks nicknamed "Hogan's Alley" for Ben Hogan, Colonial being the other -- features six par-4s in excess of 450 yards, while two of the three par-5s surpass 580 and there's a par-3 over 230. Eight of the 11 par-4s played over par last year, notably the 479-yard 12th and 487-yard 15th. But a pair of shorter holes are what Riviera is known for. There's the 199-yard sixth with a bunker in the middle of the green and the risk/reward 315-yard 10th, a hole that some call the best drivable par-4 in golf. After years of a mix of guys laying up and others going for the green, now almost everyone goes for it. The round comes to a close at the brutish, uphill par-4, 475-yard 18th with the pint-size, kidney-shaped green.

One more interesting caveat about Riviera: It has some small greens and some enormous greens. The common denominator is that putting inside 10 feet is harder than just about anywhere else on Tour, thanks in large part to the poa surfaces that get bumpy and hard to read as the day goes on. The golfers make barely 50 percent of their putts from 5-10 feet, an astoundingly low number.

Okay, let's talk lineups: It's been a very wet winter in LA, which could put some of the shorter hitters at a bigger disadvantage than usual. Because there are so many big names, some of them have attractive prices into the $8000s or even $7000s. With more than half the field making the cut, there's a strong argument to get two or even three high-priced guys into your lineup because so many $6000s will also get through to the weekend.

As for the weather, there probably won't be any rain -- the best chance is Saturday -- but it will be on the chilly side. Temperatures will be hard pressed to get into the 60s all week, and there will some cold mornings in the 40s for the early starters. The wind is not forecast to be much of a factor but always can change on a dime.

Historical L.A. Open factoids: The names who have won it read like a wing in the Golf Hall of Fame: Hogan, Snead, Nelson, Palmer, Casper, Irwin, Miller, Watson (Tom and Bubba), Couples, Faldo, Els, Mickelson and DJ. Interestingly, two names are missing: The aforementioned Woods and someone named Nicklaus.

Future Riviera factoids: The course will play host to the 2026 U.S. Women's Open and the 2028 Olympic Games in Los Angeles.

Key Stats to Winning at Riviera

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee -- both distance and accuracy
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green/SG: Approach/Greens in Regulation/ Approach from 150 yards
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
• Putting inside 10 feet
• Par-4 Efficiency 450-500 yards

Past Champions

2022 - Joaquin Niemann
2021 - Max Homa
2020 - Adam Scott
2019 - J.B. Holmes
2018 - Bubba Watson
2017 - Dustin Johnson
2016 - Bubba Watson
2015 - James Hahn
2014 - Bubba Watson
2013 - John Merrick

Champion's Profile

All you have to do is look at the past nine winners to see how it helps to be long here. Three Watsons, a DJ, a Niemann, a Holmes and a Scott paint a pretty definitive picture (and Homa isn't exactly short). However, Niemann, Scott, Holmes and Watson in his 2018 win took just a little off the gas, though still averaged about 300 yards off the tee, to get better accuracy numbers, which improved their greens in regulation. Scott ranked third in the field in GIR, Holmes was first and Watson was seventh. Niemann ranked only 14th, but he led the field in both Strokes Gained: Approach and Tee-to-Green.

None of them is the best putter, but they were better this week. Niemann ranked 26th and Scott was 27th -- and he gained more than two strokes on Sunday. Holmes actually led the field in putting. As for Homa, he was only 59th in distance off the tee, but third in accuracy, leading to being T5 in greens in regulation as he beat Tony Finau in a playoff. Finau ranked fourth in GIR. Homa also ranked seventh in SG: Putting to Finau's 18th. In the last decade, Riviera has proved to be either first, second or third hardest on Tour putting inside 10 feet. The poa greens are tricky, especially later in the day as they get bumpier.

Every champion this century has played the tournament at least twice previously, indicating the importance of course knowledge, and all but three of the past 37 winners have been at least 29 years old. Ernie Els had played Riviera only once before winning in 1999. Charles Howell III was 27 when he won in 2007 and Scott was 24 in 2005, an unofficial victory awarded after 36 holes when the rain simply wouldn't stop. Niemann was 23. The over/under on the winning score on golfodds.com is 268.5 - 15.5 under par.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Tier 1 Values

Jon Rahm - $11,100 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +800) 
You look at Rahm, Scheffler and McIlroy -- the top three guys on the DK board -- and it's really hard to not like all three. Rahm came close last week, finishing third behind Scheffler. His approach numbers are what hurt him, and that's his only non-elite strokes-gained category this season, which is un-Rahm-like. Yet he's ranked second in greens in regulation. Rahm has played Riviera the past four years and has finished between fifth and 21st. He's won multiple times at Torrey Pines, which may be the closest match on Tour to Riviera.

Justin Thomas - $10,100 (+1600)
Thomas comes here every year and has quite a ledger. In the past five years, he recorded three top-10s and two missed cuts. As usual, Thomas has been elite from tee to green this season, ranking eighth. He's second in SG: Around-the-Green. While his overall putting is quite bad, ranked 159th, his short putting is quite good -- he ranks 18th from 5-to-10 feet. So we're thinking this will be another top-10 year for Thomas and not a missed-cut year.

Max Homa - $9,700 (+2200)
Higher up, we mentioned how Riviera requires every club in the bag. That makes us think of Homa, who is not top-10 in any individual strokes-gained discipline, but when you add them all up he is sixth in Strokes Gained: Total. The native Californian is coming off yet another home-state win at Torrey Pines, and of course he won here two years ago.

Tony Finau - $9,500 (+1600)
Finau has been somewhat quietly outstanding so far in 2023. He's finished 16th or better in all four of his starts, including T14 last week at Phoenix, but he hasn't really contended on Sunday. He's done that at Riviera, finishing second twice in the past five years, including his playoff loss to Homa in 2021. All of Finau's strokes-gained numbers really pop, including Putting, as he's ranked 25th. His short putting is worse, and that's a concern. But Finau could really win this week.

Tier 2 Values

Collin Morikawa - $9,300 (+2200)
Morikawa is coming off a stunning missed cut at Phoenix. Even though his wedge play isn't great, Morikawa has terrific tee-to-green numbers that will serve him well this week -- he is ranked sixth on Tour in greens in regulation. It's hard to envision a Morikawa win without improved short putting, but he was runner-up here a year ago and already has two podium finishes in 2023.

Sam Burns - $9,100 (+3000)
Burns has been firing on all cylinders in the early stages of 2023. He was 11th at the Amex and sixth last week at Phoenix. He's been a mixed bag at Riviera -- missed cut last year, third the year before -- but he does appear to be a more consistent player now. Burns is ranked top-20 on Tour in total driving, SG: Putting and putting inside 10 feet.

Matt Fitzpatrick - $8,300 (+4000)
There are 16 golfers priced higher than Fitzpatrick and that seems like too many. He's a sneaky long driver, very accurate and one of the best scramblers on Tour. Fitzpatrick skipped Riviera last year but finished fifth there two years ago. He is ranked sixth on Tour in putting from 5 to 10 feet.

Adam Scott - $8,000 (+6000)
Scott has been consistently good at this tournament for many years, winning twice, including just three years ago. He's also had a runner-up and last year he tied for fourth. Scott hasn't played since the two Hawaii tournaments, and we should now see a heavy does of him going forward as he makes a renewed commitment to the PGA Tour.

Tier 3 Values

Keegan Bradley - $7,700 (+6000)
Bradley remains one of the better ball strikers around, and that helped him secure a share of 20th place last week at Phoenix. As we've stated often, the real jump in Bradley's game, which has helped him climb to 21st in the world rankings, is putting. He's top-50 right now in putting from inside 10 feet.

K.H. Lee - $7,400 (+13000)
Lee has made four straight cuts at the Genesis with two of them being top-25s and last year's near miss at T26. He is ranked 16th in total driving, and that might be the biggest improvement in his game. Lee is also ranked ninth in both greens in regulation and approaches from 150-175 yards. Really, he's becoming a quality player all around.

Taylor Moore - $7,200 (+13000)
It's one thing to notch top-15s at the Farmers and Pebble Beach, but to get a third straight in a super-loaded Phoenix field is really impressive. Moore is up to a career-best 106th in the world and poised to enter the top-100 with one more similar result. He had a good week here last year, tying for 21st. Moore has been doing it largely with putting, which isn't going to be enough at Riviera -- he's ranked 22nd from 5 to 10 feet -- but he's still well above average on SG: Approach and Tee-to-Green.

Patrick Rodgers - $7,000 (+15000)
Rodgers missed the cut here last year, ending a string of five straight top-30 cashes at the Genesis. He's currently ranked in the top-50 in SG: Off-the-Tee, Around-the-Green and Tee-to-Green, a well-rounded stat line that will come in handy this week. Rodgers is also ranked 27th in putting from inside 10 feet. He's coming off a super week at Phoenix in which he tied for 14th.

Long-Shot Values

Jhonattan Vegas - $6,900 (+15000)
Vegas is playing very well entering the week. He's coming off top-25s at both the Farmers and Phoenix. He still can't putt worth a lick -- so a high finish in unlikely -- but he is really striking the ball well. Get this: Vegas leads the Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee, is seventh in Around-the-Green and is second in Tee-to-Green. Those are outstanding numbers. He's even 50th in greens in regulation. Outside of a top-20 in 2017, Vegas has not been great at Riviera. But his current numbers are too hard to ignore.

Sam Ryder - $6,700 (+15000)
Ryder had his best week on Tour at the Farmers three weeks back in which he ended tied for fourth. He continued his prosperity with last week's T20 at Phoenix. We'd be surprised if this turned out to be a tipping point in Ryder's journeyman career, but we'll continue to ride (ryde?) the hot hand, especially at a course where he's played well before. Ryder has made two of three cuts at Riviera, and last year's T26 was his best showing yet. He is ranked top-15 in both SG: Around-the-Green and Putting.

Dylan Frittelli - $6,500 (+35000)
Frittelli will have some good weeks and some very bad ones. For instance, he has two top-30s at the Genesis but also two missed cuts. His strokes-gained numbers are average or better everywhere but Around-the-Green. Same with his short putting. Frittelli tied for 14th at Phoenix last week. Too do that or something similar two weeks in a row would be a big surprise. Let's just hope for a made cut and maybe a little luck on the weekend.

Matthew NeSmith - $6,400 (+40000)
NeSmith has played the Genesis twice and made the cut both times -- so there's that. His big issue is his length, or lack thereof, off the tee. But he recovers nicely by ranking about 40th on Tour in both SG: Approach and greens in regulation, plus inside the top-60 in SG: Tee-to-Green. Even his putting is top-60, though his short putting is worse. Despite all those good numbers, NeSmith has missed four of his past five cuts, including Phoenix. Really, his stats say he's better than his results have been. If he keeps playing like that, his results will catch up.

Online wagers can be placed in Ohio, and soon can be made in Massachusetts! Get off to a fast start with the the best Ohio Sports Betting Promos and Massachusetts Sports Betting Promos.