This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
QUICKEN LOANS NATIONAL
Purse: $7.1M
Winner's Share: $1.278M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Potomac, Md.
Course: TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm
Yardage: 7,139
Par: 70
2016 champion: Billy Hurley III
Tournament Preview
We have a very interesting situation this week. TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm, formerly known simply as TPC Avenel, returns to the PGA Tour after an 11-year absence. The golfers absolutely hated the course, longtime host of the Kemper Open, and it underwent a complete renovation in 2008. The only relevant history we can glean is from a couple of recent Web.com Tour events played there. On the plus side for gamers, there are only 120 golfers in this invitational, some three dozen shy of a standard field of 156. That will make it somewhat easier to construct a lineup, maybe even an unusually aggressive one, gambling on more long shots as roughly 60 percent of the field or more will make the cut. It's not a bad strategy for another reason: The field is among the weakest we'll see all year. It is headed by Rickie Fowler in his first event since coming up short at the U.S. Open. World No. 9 Fowler is the lone top-10 golfer here, joined by only two others in the top-25: No. 12 Justin Thomas and No. 17 Patrick Reed.
What we do know about the new TPC Potomac is that it's hard. Scores were quite high at the two Web.com events, even for a par-70 track with only two par-5s. David Lingmerth won at 8-under in 2012 and Michael Putnam at 7-under a year later, when only nine golfers broke par. It was the second toughest Web.com track in 2012 and the hardest in 2013. Hudson Swafford, who played it both times (MC 2012, T27 2013), called it U.S. Open-like. (How Swafford would know what a U.S. Open course is like is beside the point, and frankly mean-spirited of us to bring up at all since he's played in two of them!) So even though we'll assume that PGA Tour golfers will score better than, in effect, minor leaguers, we don't anticipate a birdie-fest. We will be focusing on accuracy in the key stats and champion's profile below.
There are eight par-4s in the 440-490 range, so looking at par-4 efficiency from 450-500 yards is a close comparison. There are also one and perhaps two drivable par-4s to add to the excitement. The 14th is 299 yards and the 5th is listed at 365; depending on the actual yardage of the day, the longer hitters could conceivably go for both of them.
Weather-wise, we're looking at a normal hot and sticky week for this time of year in the Washington area, though with little chance of rain except on Saturday.
Lastly, this tournament benefits the Tiger Woods Foundation, but Woods, who presented emotional champion Billy Hurley III with the trophy last year, has already announced he will not be around this week, as he is seeking treatment for prescription medication.
Key Stats to Winning at TPC Potomac (in order of importance)
• Greens in regulation/strokes gained tee to green
• Scrambling/strokes gained around the green
• Putting average/strokes gained putting
Past Champions
2016 - Billy Hurley III
2015 - Troy Merritt
2014 - Justin Rose
2013 - Bill Haas
2012 - Tiger Woods
2011 - Nick Watney
2010 - Justin Rose
2009 - Tiger Woods
2008 - Anthony Kim
2007 - K.J. Choi
Champion's Profile:
Gamers go into this tournament with less information than normal because of the new track. With the winning scores in the single-digits for the two recent Web.com events, we will focus on accuracy and the standard GIR-scrambling-putting troika. Despite the lure of stocking up on point-gathering birdie-makers so valuable in DraftKings play, it wouldn't be a bad idea to keep golfers skilled at bogey avoidance in your thoughts -- at least a little more than most weeks. It's not a sexy play, but one crooked number could lead to a lineup-crushing trunk-slam.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Rickie Fowler - $12,000 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 8-1)
Fowler is the overwhelming favorite this week, and while we list him here, we're not sure he will make our six-man lineup (if you enter lots of lineups, that's a different story). Fowler has had a lot of time to think about missing a prime chance at the U.S. Open, and we should see where his head is at first thing on Thursday. That said, Fowler checks off all the boxes: 11th in SG: Tee-to-Green, seventh in SG: Putting and first in scrambling. He's even 19th on Tour in accuracy off the tee and 10th in bogey avoidance.
Patrick Reed - $11,100 (12-1)
Reed has been rising for weeks. Sure, there's no guarantee that the arrow will continue to point upward every week, but we like his chances. Looking at the season-long stats is pointless in Reed's case (though he is ranked in the 30s in both putting average and SG: Putting). But it's safe to say they are far better than they were just a few weeks back.
Marc Leishman - $9,800 (25-1)
Leishman surely will be a popular play, perhaps the most popular among the high-priced guys. He's fourth on the DK board (behind Fowler, Reed and Justin Thomas, and the first one sub-$10,000. Leishman of course won earlier this season at a tough-scoring track (11-under at Bay Hill). He's in the top-45 in all of our key stats, including 21st in both SG: Tee-to-Green and bogey avoidance.
Bill Haas - $9,500 (25-1)
Bill Haas won here in 2013, so at least he likes the neighborhood! Seriously, he's put a tough stretch behind him and is riding three straight top-25s, including a T5 at the U.S. Open. He's as stout as any of the above trio tee to green. Haas drops off a bit in putting, but he can counter that with precision scrambling (ranked seventh). He's third on Tour in bogey avoidance.
Tier 2 Values
Kevin Chappell - $9,300 (25-1)
Chappell won at San Antonio with a 12-under score, which might not be far from the winner's number this week. So he knows how to bide his time and take chances only when they're there. Chappell's tee-to-green game certainly outweighs his greenside play and putting, but he's even shown steady improvement in his weaknesses the past few months, beginning with his T7 at Augusta.
Brendan Steele - $8,900 (25-1)
Steele was going gangbusters early in the season before stumbling a bit as winter turned to spring. But he's now notched top-15s in three of his past four starts. Steele sits 17th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 31st in approach and 30th around the green. He's also 13th in bogey avoidance.
David Lingmerth - $8,500 (30-1)
Lingmerth is one of the two dozen or so golfers in the field to have played one or both of the Web.com Tour events at TPC Potomac. And he won the tournament in 2012 (helping him get to the PGA Tour in 2013). More importantly, he's raised his game significantly of late, with last week's T26 at the Travelers barely denying him a fourth successive top-25. Outside of putting numbers, Lingmerth's season-long stats don't scare anybody (except maybe his sponsors). Safe to say, they are far better of late.
Danny Lee - $8,100 (30-1)
Lee has three top-10s on the season, all in his past five starts, including a T3 last week at River Highlands. He's finished top-25 in almost half his cashes (7-of-15). Lee ranks 97th in SG: Tee-to-Green, but if you factor just his past five events, he would stand about 50th on Tour. Plus he's 18th in putting average. Lee played the Web event in 2013, but missed the cut.
Tier 3 Values
Morgan Hoffmann - $7,800 (80-1)
This is an enormous price to pay for Hoffmann, and it does give us pause, but he surely has been better of late: top-30 in four of his past five starts. Like with Lee, there's a vast improvement in his stats over the five-week stretch vs. season-long. Hoffman tied for sixth at the 2012 Web.com event here.
Graham DeLaet - $7,500 (40-1)
DeLaet is 20th in GIR, 21st in SG: Putting, and 55th in SG:Tee-to-Green. He tied for 10th at the Memorial, took three weeks off and returned to a T26 last week at the Travelers. DeLaet sits 39th on Tour in bogey avoidance.
Kevin Streelman - $7,400 (50-1)
Streelman certainly has shifted gears his past three starts (sadly coinciding with us dropping him from our team in the RotoWire league). He's gone T18 at the Dean & Deluca, T13 at the Memorial and T8 last week at the Travelers. The key to the turnaround has been putting (isn't it always?). Streelman is still negative in SG: Putting on the season, but way positive of late.
Trey Mullinax - $7,300 (100-1)
Welcome to our first huge gamble. The rookie is a wild man off the tee, sitting 183rd in driving accuracy on the season. The wide fairways of Erin Hills helped Mullinax secure an impressive T9 at the U.S. Open, and he was T18 the week before at Memphis. Mullinax did miss the cut last week at the Travelers, but even there he was in positive territory in every strokes gained category save putting.
Long-Shot Values
Julian Etulain - $6,900 (Field, 11-4)
The Argentine rookie had played only two PGA Tour events before the 15 he's been in so far in 2016-17. Etulain has missed only one cut since January. He teamed with Angel Cabrera for a T5 at the Zurich Classic, but scored a top-25 all by himself at a tough track in Memphis. Putting has carried Etulain's game of late, and he's now top-50 in SG: Putting.
Grayson Murray - $6,800 (Field, 11-4)
Murray made it nine straight cuts with a T26 last week at the Travelers -- what's a guy gotta do to get his price over $7K, Mr. DraftKings? A little like fellow rookie Mullinax, Murray has trouble hitting his driver straight. But he hits it so far -- seventh on Tour in driving distance -- that he ranks 26th in SG: Off-the-Tee. Murray's three-month surge has also lifted his SG: Tee-to-Green numbers onto the positive side.
Jim Herman - $6,800 (Field, 11-4)
Herman played both Web.com events, missing the cut in 2012 before notching a T15 in 2013. In the past three months, Herman has played six stroke-play events on the PGA Tour. He's missed the cut in three of them, but he also has two top-20s. He is sixth on Tour in greens in regulation and 47th in both SG: Tee-to-Green and approach.
Matt Jones - $6,700 (80-1)
Jones is a curious guy. For a golfer costing $6,700, he has odds of only 80-1. He doesn't play a lot, with only 13 starts all season, but he's accrued five top-25s. Jones has missed only one cut since March and is coming off a T18 in his last start at Memphis. Always considered a good putter, his numbers there are down this year (70th in SG: Putting), but he's 11th in scrambling, 62nd in SG: Tee-to-Green and 55th in SG: Total. He's also T41 in bogey avoidance.
