This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
HOUSTON OPEN
Purse: $7M
Winner's Share: $1.224M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Humble, Texas
Course: Golf Club of Houston (Tournament Course)
Yardage: 7,441
Par: 72
2016 champion: Jim Herman
Tournament Preview
There are water hazards, there are run-offs and collections areas around the greens, the stimp meter will be pushing 13. Welcome to a dress rehearsal for the Masters. The Golf Club of Houston tries to mimic Augusta, and in many ways it does. But it's not Augusta-tough, historically ranking around the middle of hardest courses on the PGA Tour. Still, it provides good "practice" for golfers heading to the season's first major, while also offering a last chance for others to qualify. As such, the field will be pretty strong, even with the Monday morning withdrawal of Dustin Johnson. Four of the top-10 in the world and 11 of the top-25 will be on hand. Surging Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, Phil Mickelson and Rickie Fowler are the headliners. Mickelson won here in 2011, but three of the past four champs are lesser names who punched their ticket to the Masters right before the clock struck 12. The fact that Jim Herman, Matt Jones and D.A. Points were those winners tells you this is not Augusta. It also tells us that the bigger names maybe are looking to prepare for next week even at the expense of winning this week. For gamers, it's not a bad option to downplay the biggest names, something we'll touch on in our Value Picks below.
A look at the recent tournament history provides strong indicators of what to look for when filling out your lineups: greens in regulation, scrambling and especially putting. We'll delve deeper into trends and stats in the Champion's Profile.
Interestingly, for a course not considered all that difficult, it does lay claim to one of the hardest holes on the PGA Tour. And it just happens to be No. 18, a 488-yarder that was ranked 17th toughest among the 900 holes played on Tour last season. With water on the left and bunkers on the right virtually the whole way, bogey or worse was the score more than one-third of the time. The 18th caps a long six-hole stretch. It's almost as if the first 12 holes are a different course, where driver can mostly be left in the bag. But the final half-dozen holes include two par-5s of 590-plus and two par-3s of at least 200 before closing with a pair of par-4s in excess of 480. In Texas, wind is usually a concern, though right now it's not forecast to be all that strong. There will be thunderstorms Wednesday and, right now, the forecast calls for more rain Sunday.
A final note: This is the last year that Shell will be the title sponsor of the tournament, ending a 26-year run. With the constant upheaval of sponsorship on the PGA Tour these days, that should be measured in a dog years. No new sponsor has been named.
Key Stats to Winning at Golf Club of Houston (in order of importance)
• Putting average (putts per GIR)/strokes gained putting
• Greens in regulation
• Scrambling
• Par-4 scoring 450-500 yards
Past Champions
2016 - Jim Herman
2015 – J.B. Holmes
2014 – Matt Jones
2013 – D.A. Points
2012 – Hunter Mahan
2011 – Phil Mickelson
2010 – Anthony Kim
2009 – Paul Casey
2008 – Johnson Wagner
2007 – Adam Scott
Champion's Profile
If you don't putt well here, you won't win. Putting is really important at the Golf Club of Houston, and it's our key focus. That doesn't mean you have to pick six good putters for your lineup. There are other important metrics. We'll also target guys who get the ball on the green in regulation, guys who are good scramblers. There's no dishonor in Tier 2/3 picks finishing top-25 or long shots simply making the cut and contributing to a DFS game victory. Five of the past seven winners finished top-7 in putting average. The exceptions? D.A. Points in 2013 was 20th in PA, but he also was 10th in GIR and fifth in scrambling. Hunter Mahan in 2012 was 14th in PA, but first in GIR and second in scrambling. Every winner since 2011 has been top-10 in GIR. Three of the past five winners have been top-5 in scrambling. We've added par-4 450-500 yard efficiency as a key stat because the final two holes are 480-plus and that's when the pressure is on. No. 18 played the hardest last year, No. 17 played sixth-hardest. We'll use that metric only as a tiebreaker of sorts, if we can't decide between two golfers.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Jon Rahm - $10,700 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 10-1)
Rahm is on such an incredible run -- a win and three more top-5s in his past five starts -- it's simply not sustainable. But we're not able to look away just yet. The only thing that might give us pause for Rahm and other top guys is that the Houston Open is akin to a trap game in the NFL: a weak opponent before a critical matchup, a regular tournament before the Masters. Jordan Spieth surely could win, but if he doesn't, he's overpriced at $12,000. So we'll pass on him, as well as iffy-of-late Henrik Stenson despite such a strong history here. We found some nice options in the middle tiers.
Rickie Fowler - $10,000 (15-1)
Fowler is more favorably priced as the No. 4 guy on the DraftKings board. He's an exceptional putter (11th SGP), the top scrambler on Tour and also 32nd in GIR. It's not a bad week to go with a completely balanced lineup and avoid all the $10K guys, but we wanted to offer at least a couple of options.
Tier 2 Values
J.B. Holmes - $9,200 (30-1)
Holmes is an attractive option albeit at a slightly high price. He won here two years ago, but didn't defend last year. He also has a pair of top-12s in his two prior visits. He's way down the list in GIR and scrambling, but has been putting quite well -- 19th in PA -- especially for such a bomber. He might be just the right mix of good golfer but not great golfer who's thinking ahead to next week.
Phil Mickelson - $8,900 (20-1)
Mickelson usually plays well here, but we were not thrilled with his price -- we were hoping it would've been a bit lower. He has six straight top-20s in Houston beginning with his 2011 win, and he's putting superbly this season (1st in PA). Remarkably, Mickelson is 199th in GIR. But that's just be Phil being Phil.
Daniel Berger - $8,800 (30-1)
Berger was T5 last year, T25 the year before in his only two Houston appearances. He also has wayward GIR numbers, but is an excellent scrambler (10th on Tour) and a sneaky good putter (8th in SGP).
Russell Henley - $8,300 (30-1)
Henley will be a popular pick, and why not? He's been top-7 here the past three years, even as his game headed south elsewhere. Henley has been better this year, thanks to top-20s in GIR and SGP. He's even among the best in those long par-4s.
Patrick Cantlay - $8,600 (50-1)
Well, this price was quite a shock. Cantlay has played all of two tournaments after missing more than two years, one of them being runner-up at the Valspar his last time out. There's really no other way to justify this pick other than to say we are paying (hoping?) for Cantlay's big upside. Proceed with caution.
Tier 3 Values
Rafael Cabrera-Bello - $7,900 (50-1)
To find the No. 26 golfer in the world in Tier 3 territory was a pleasant discovery. The Spaniard is 31st in GIR, 30th in SGP. We have latched on to Lucas Glover and Nick Watney in recent weeks, and we still like them, but when they cost more than Cabrera-Bello. Both are in the $8,000s.
Kyle Stanley - $7,400 (100-1)
Stanley has been another one of our go-to guys for weeks, and he continues to perform well. He can't putt worth a lick, but he's 10th in GIR, T35 in scrambling and 20th on the 450-500 yard par-4s. Stanley has made six of his past seven cuts, and was T19 at Houston a year ago.
Luke List - $7,300 (100-1)
List had a strong fall season, then missed three cuts in a row as fields got stronger. But he's riding four straight cashes and was T27 at Houston a year ago. He's 38th in GIR and a not-too-bad T59 in PA.
Matt Jones - $7,300 (Field, 7-2)
Jones was the 2014 champion, but missed the cut the past two years, so this is a bit of a gamble (on the other hand, this whole DraftKings thing is kind of a gamble). But he's got a terrific short game (27th in scrambling and 15th in SGP). He was showing improved play this season until taking a long break after a top-25 at Pebble Beach. He returned to an MC last week in Puerto Rico. We're hoping that was just rust.
Jason Dufner - $7,100 (50-1)
There are four DraftKings prices that seemed really low, and Dufner is one of them -- the others include Tony Finau ($7,100), Bernd Wiesberger, and Ollie Schniederjans, who are both $6,700. A case can be made to jump on all of them. Dufner hasn't played here since 2009. He's got top-25s in his past four stroke-play events, as well as being top-25 in both scrambling and PA. Really, he's just too cheap to pass up.
Stewart Cink - $7,100 (Field, 7-2)
The oddsmakers don't think too highly of Cink, but we do. It's really a renaissance season for Cink, who has made six straight cuts (five of them top-30s) and four in a row at Houston. The veteran is 35th in GIR, 56th in SGP and even 23rd on the 450-500 par-4s.
Long-Shot Values
Chris Stroud - $6,900 (Field, 7-2)
Stroud is coming off a T8 last week in Puerto Rico, but that's only because he blew the lead on the back nine on Sunday. We're hoping he's over it. It was only his fifth start all season. In that limited action, he's eighth on Tour in GIR and a decent 62nd in PA. Stround has played the weekend the past four years in Houston, with two top-25s.
Bernd Wiesberger - $6,700 (60-1)
Wiesberger is ranked 41st in the world. He tied for 27th last year in his Houston debut. He would be 20th on Tour in GIR if he had played enough rounds. At less than $7,000, this is a no-brainer.
Michael Kim - $6,400 (Field, 7-2)
Kim hit a rough patch of consecutive missed cuts at Riviera and the Honda, but he's cashed twice since, including a T17 in his last start at Bay Hill. That was his fifth top-25 already this season. Kim is among the very best putters -- seventh in SGP. He even tied Wiesberger for 27th last year in his maiden Houston appearance.
