DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: The Genesis Invitational Cash and GPP Strategy

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

THE GENESIS INVITATIONAL

Purse: $20M
Winner's Share: $4M
FedEx Cup Points: 700 to the Winner
Location: La Jolla, Calif.
Course: Torrey Pines GC (South course)
Yardage: 7,765
Par: 72
2024 champion: Hideki Matsuyama (Riviera Country Club)

Tournament Preview

Anticipation was building for Tiger Woods' first appearance in five years at Torrey Pines, the course where has won a record eight times. If there's anywhere Woods could turn back the clock, it's there, right?

But on Monday morning, less than a week after the passing of his mother, Kultida, Woods withdrew from his Genesis Invitational. 

It was just the latest gut punch to one of the most storied tournaments in the history of the PGA Tour. Last month, amid the disastrous Los Angeles wildfires, the Genesis was forced to move from venerable Riviera Country Club to Torrey Pines, where there was just a tournament -- the 2025 Farmers Insurance Open -- three weeks ago.

Small consolation, but at least we have some very recent data to fall back on. As the official Golf Course Superintendents Associate of America tournament fact sheet said, "Yardages and cuts are the same as they were for the Farmers Insurance Open."

Which means Torrey Pines South could and should play as beastly as it usually does. Last month, Harris English won at a mere 8-under par -- and that's including one round at the easier North course. There's little reason to think the winning score could get much lower, even with the field being significantly stronger.

While there are only 72 golfers in this Signature Event, they include just about every top golfer on the PGA Tour, save Xander Schauffele, who has now missed multiple weeks with a side/rib injury that is growing in concern. Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy will face off again, joined by Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, sponsor's invite Jordan Spieth and Hideki Matsuyama, who technically is the defending champion for his 2024 win at Riviera.

This is the third of eight Signature Events on the season. At Woods' insistence, the 72-man field will have a cut, as will Arnold Palmer and Jack Nicklaus' upcoming Signature Events. But the cut is weird, and possibly won't be much of a cut at all. The top 50 and ties reach the weekend, but so does anyone within 10 shots of the lead. It's possible that that's everyone.

Torrey Pines South is a mere 235 yards shy of 8,000. The back-nine comes within 38 yards of 4,000.

Seven of the 10 par-4s are at least 450 yards. The shortest par-5 is 564 and two exceed 615. Three of the par-3s are 200-plus and two are 225-plus. Really, you could make a case that there's only one short hole on the entire course -- the 389-yard second.

Three weeks ago, only three holes played under par -- the three par-5s. Two long par-4s, the 490-yard fourth and 505-yard 12th, were the biggest brutes, playing more than one-third of a shot over par. More than half of the double-bogeys/triples/worse on the week came on those two holes alone, 26 out of 51. The 480-yard 15th usually joins them in the toughest-hole department. 

The sheer length of the course is not the only challenge; while the golfers will be standing far back in the fairway for their approach shots -- and they are narrow fairways, at that -- they will be aiming at some of the smallest greens on Tour. The tricky poa annua surfaces average only 5,000 square feet.

Only two courses on the PGA Tour are at least 7,500 yards long with greens no larger than 5,000 square feet -- Torrey Pines South and Muirfield Village for the Memorial. If the golfers miss the greens, they are then faced with chipping from the gnarly kikuyu grass. Water is in play on just one hole, but it can be a game-changer on the 570-yard 18th.

Needless to say, there's a premium on distance this week. Yes, with driver but maybe even more with long irons. It's always hard to envision a shorter hitter winning here, but with cooler and some rainy conditions forecast, it makes the case even more daunting. Patrick Reed did it four years ago at the Farmers and English did it last month. But they were exceptional in other areas besides tee shots. English ranked only 43rd in distance but ranked fourth in Strokes Gained: Approach, third in SG: Putting and first in scrambling. That makes up for a lot of shorter drives.

Expanding on the weather, until recently it had not rained in earnest in Southern California since April. That means this public course had been active more than usual, "which has resulted in increase in wear and tear on the property," according to the official GCSAA tournament fact sheet for the Farmers. This week, temperatures will be hard-pressed to get out of the 50s. There looks like a lot of rain from Wednesday through Friday before things clear on the weekend, when the winds also are forecast to die down.

As always when weather is an issue, don't lock until the last possible moment after checking the latest forecast. Then see whether the early/late or late/early wave has an advantage. There isn't that much of a difference with such a small field, but it's still good to wait.

The picks below were made without the benefit of knowing tee times. 

Key Stats to Winning at Torrey Pines South

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee/Total Driving
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Approach from 200+ yards
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Par-4 Efficiency 450-500 yards
• Bogey Avoidance

Past Champions (all at Riviera)

2024 - Hideki Matsuyama
2023 - Jon Rahm
2022 - Joaquin Niemann
2021 - Max Homa
2020 - Adam Scott
2019 - J.B. Holmes
2018 - Bubba Watson
2017 - Dustin Johnson
2016 - Bubba Watson
2015 - James Hahn

Champion's Profile

Just three weeks ago, English, Sam Stevens and Andrew Novak finished 1-2-3 on the leaderboard. They ranked, respectively, fourth, third and seventh in SG: Approach. None of them were among the driving distance leaders. But as we mentioned above with English, they excelled in most other areas. Stevens was highly accurate off the tee and 10th in SG: Around-the-Green. Novak ranked top-20 in the field in both SG: Around and SG: Putting.

Last year at the Farmers, winner Matthieu Pavon ranked 38th in the field in driving distance and the year before, winner Max Homa ranked 55th. Three years ago, even the long-hitting Luke List was only 12th in the field in distance in his big victory. The high finishers balanced accuracy off the tee, which made their approaches at least a little bit easier. Pavon ranked 16th in fairways hit and Homa was ninth.

We want to be clear: The longest hitters did not do the best here, but you have to have some distance this week, combined with accuracy to keep the ball in the narrow fairways. Let's call it "medium" distance. Total driving is a key stat this week. English did average more than 300 yards on his drives, though that may not being saying all that much these days.

No matter what happens off the tee, there will be long iron shots. Driving accuracy and GIR numbers are annually among the lowest on Tour, which brings deftness around the greens into play. A check of course history over the past five or so years shows that a lot of guys do well here year after year, maybe more so than any other course.

The over/under on the winning score on golfodds.com is 280.5, which is a mere 7.5 under par.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

$10,000 and up

Scottie Scheffler - $12,300 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +400)
Scheffler finished 25th last week in Phoenix, which is like someone else finishing 150th. Seriously, it did give us pause. But on a course where the winning score could easily be in single digits and bogey avoidance might be the key-est of all the key stats, it's hard to turn away from the world No. 1. Scheffler has not played the Farmers since 2020, when he tied for 20th, but a year later he tied for seventh at the U.S. Open there. And he's kinda gotten better since then.

Rory McIlroy - $10,900 (+700)
Will we be lured in by McIlroy's victorious 2025 debut at Pebble Beach? Apparently so. That victory came in Open Championship-like weather, the same conditions we'll see for much of this week, too. McIlroy had top-5s at the Farmers in 2019 and 2020, then tied for seventh at the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines.

$9,000-$9,900

Hideki Matsuyama - $9,500 (+2000)
Matsuyama has had numerous good finishes at Torrey through the years -- T3, T9, T12 and T13 -- with two of those coming recently during the height of his neck/back woes. He is ranked fifth on Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green, which includes top-fives in both Approach and Around-the-Green. Even his putting has been vastly improved, with a Tour ranking of T51.

Taylor Pendrith - $9,000 (+4000)
Pendrith has Farmers top-10s the past two years, and is off to a hot start in 2025, all of which explains his very high price tag. He tied for seventh here a few weeks back, then the next week tied for ninth and chilly Pebble Beach. Pendrith is not the greatest putter, but when you're ranked third on the PGA Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee and fourth in Tee-to-Green, you don't have to be.

$8,000-$8,900

Russell Henley - $8,600 (+5500)
Who knew the Georgia native was such a mudder? Henley finished T5 in Open-like weather conditions at Pebble Beach a couple of weeks back, and also finished fifth in Open-like weather conditions at the actual Open Championship last summer. He is ranked 14th on Tour in SG: Approach and 15th in Putting, which is a pretty good combination for a professional golfer to have. Henley has not played the Farmers in years but tied for 13th at the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey.

$7,000-$7,900

Harris English - $7,600 (+8000)
English put on a remarkable performance here three weeks ago in winning the Farmers. He has two other top-10s at Torrey through the years and finished solo third there at the 2021 U.S. Open -- you'd get all of that for the bargain-basement price of $7,600. English was a top-10-ranked golfer until a back injury derailed his career a few years ago. Now, he's battled back to No. 35 in the world.

Sam Stevens - $7,600 (+7500)
This may be a case of recency bias, but recently, Stevens has been excellent. He finished second at the Farmers and T17 at Pebble. He's among the best ball strikers and bogey avoiders on Tour in the early going. While it will be hard for any golfer to miss the cut this week, it's nice to know Stevens has made 19 of his past 20.

$6,000-$6,900

Gary Woodland - $6,600 (+10000)
Woodland has gotten off to a strong start in 2025, finishing top-25 in all three of his starts. He's once again one of the straightest long drivers on Tour, a skill that will come very handy this week. He is ranked sixth on Tour in Total Driving and 13th in SG: Tee-to-Green, At one point, Woodland played Torrey Pines very well, with top-20s in four consecutive years from 2016-2019.

Justin Rose - $6,400 (+12000)
Rose is a former winner here, in 2019, and has three other top-10s through the years. He's usually played well at Pebble Beach with its terrible weather conditions, much like we'll see this week. He tied for third there two weeks back. At this point in his career, at age 44, Rose is a complete wild card, capable of top-10 or one of the few missed cuts we should see this week. It may be determined by his tee time.

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