This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
JOHN DEERE CLASSIC
Purse: $7.4M
Winner's Share: 1.332M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Silvis, Ill.
Course: TPC Deere Run
Yardage: 7,289
Par: 71
2022 champion: J.T. Poston
Tournament Preview
It appears the best thing that ever happened to the John Deere Classic, set deep in the heart of Middle America, is the Scottish Open, some 4,000 miles away.
Let's connect the dots: The John Deere used to be played the week before the Open Championship and would get the weakest field of the year on the PGA Tour. It was so weak that the tournament became one of the top punchlines for anything bad in golf. But two years ago, the PGA Tour, in its growing alliance with the DP World Tour, became a co-sponsor of the Scottish Open, which also happened to be played one week before the Open. Something had to give. Or, more precisely, move.
It was the Deere that moved, to two weeks before the Open. And suddenly, it became a little more attractive golfers. Oh, not Mona Lisa attractive but certainly much better than it used to be.
The Deere doesn't get a great field now -- let's call it "less terrible." And this year, compared to previous Deeres, it's awesome.
Nine of the top-50 golfers in the world -- the most the tournament has seen in 11 years -- will head to the nation's Heartland for what annually is the biggest professional sporting event in the Quad Cities. No. 19 Cameron Young is the highest-ranked golfer in the field, joined by Russell Henley, Denny McCarthy, Adam Hadwin, Chris Kirk, Matt Kuchar and defending champion J.T. Poston, to name a handful. But the biggest attraction this week might just be a player born not all that far from where the Scottish Open is played.
Sweden's Ludvig Aberg continues to take the golf world by storm. The former No. 1-ranked amateur and Texas Tech all-American last week made it five cuts in five PGA Tour starts in 2023, the past three as a professional. He faded on the weekend at the Rocket Mortgage to tie for 40th, but his booming drives will no doubt be much discussed this week. He is No. 3 on the DraftKings board at $10,100, ahead of even Young and Hadwin, who was in last week's Rocket Mortgage playoff won by Rickie Fowler.
Every year, the Deere doles out sponsor invites to college stars just embarking on their pro careers. It's a nice touch. This year, we will be introduced to Tommy Kuhl of Illinois, Ross Steelman of Georgia Tech and William Mouw from Pepperdine. Plus there are two others still in college who we've become acquainted with recently, Gordon Sargent of Vanderbilt and Michael Thorbjornsen of Stanford.
And then there's local favorite Nick Hardy, the former Illini star and Illinois native now ranked 152nd in the world in his second full season on Tour.
You'd be hard-pressed to find a community more devoted to its golf tournament than the people of the Quad Cities are to the Deere. There aren't many sporting events in this area of Illinois/Iowa, certainly not before college football season starts up. So it was a crushing blow to the locals when the 2020 tournament was canceled because of the pandemic. But it returned last year and, no matter the field, the fans love their John Deere Classic.
TPC Deere Run has been the host course ever since the D.A. Weibring design was completed in 2000. The tournament dates to 1971, when future PGA Tour Commissioner Deane Beman won the first two editions of what was then known as the Quad Cities Open. Weibring himself went on to win it three times, but never at Deere Run.
The course has played host to a 59. Paul Goydos turned the trick in the first round in 2010. Unfortunately for Goydos, Steve Stricker was right behind that day with a 60 en route to winning with a tourney-record 26-under-par. That perfectly illustrates the annual track meet that is the John Deere Classic. The winning score is generally north of 20-under (Poston won at 21-under last year). The most exciting hole is the drivable 361-yard 14th, playing downhill to a tiny green. The hardest hole most years is the par-4, 476-yard 18th. That is one of only three par-4s that even exceeds 450 yards. They consider the 158-yard 16th to be the signature hole. Overall, the course is short, with only three par-5s, none reaching 600 yards. The fairways are generous. The bentgrass greens are on medium size, averaging 5,500 square feet with the Stimpmeter running at around 12. There is water on three holes and 76 bunkers on the course.
Two years ago, "the course underwent a comprehensive bunker renovation and competitive enhancement project," according to the 2022 Golf Course Superintendents' sheet. "Bunkers were completely rebuilt with new grass surrounds, drainage, liners and sand, which also included reducing overall square footage by 30% and repositioning as needed to increase course strategy."
One thing about lineup construction that we have to mention a few times a year: Don't get caught up in sticker shock. Just about all of these guys are listed with prices that we'd never pay most weeks. But the field is so diluted that guys could be $1,000 or even $2,000 more than usual, and we just have to get over it.
As for the weather, a week that began with scorching temperatures in the 90s will shift into a comfortable four-day stretch in the 70s. There's a chance of some scattered thunderstorms on the weekend and the forecast is calling for light to moderate winds.
Fun John Deere factoid No. 1: Organizers tried to attract attention when Michelle Wie was given a sponsor's exemption two years in a row. She was inside the cut line in 2005 until a late double bogey/bogey did her in. The following year, far outside the cut line, Wie withdrew, citing the excessive heat.
Fun John Deere factoid No. 2: Roger Maltbie won the tournament in 1975, when it was known as, of all things, the Ed McMahon-Jaycees Quad Cities Open. Fellow golf announcer Curt Byrum won it in 1989. Some other winners were Payne Stewart, Scott Hoch, Vijay Singh and, more recently, Jordan Spieth (twice) and Bryson DeChambeau.
Key Stats to Winning at TPC Deere Run
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Proximity 150-175 yards
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Par-4 Efficiency 400-450 yards
• Birdie or Better Percentage/Bogey Avoidance
Past Champions
2022 - J.T. Poston
2021 - Lucas Glover
2020 - None
2019 - Dylan Frittelli
2018 - Michael Kim
2017 - Bryson DeChambeau
2016 - Ryan Moore
2015 - Jordan Spieth
2014 - Brian Harman
2013 - Jordan Spieth
2012 - Zach Johnson
Champion's Profile
Looking back over the last 10 editions, the winner here has been in the top 10 in putting seveb times, with only Poston (31st) Glover (19th) and Harman (31st) missing out. Poston excelled in other areas, notably fourth in greens in regulation, and first in both Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and Tee-to-Green. Some very good putters have won this tournament, and even Poston and Harman are two of them. Interestingly, only five of the past 10 winners finished top-10 in greens in regulation (again, Poston and Harman were two of those). Driving distance matters little (Poston ranked 48th) but the top of the leaderboard did include guys who hit a lot of fairways -- Poston tied for 12th there, as did the two runners-up Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Emiliano Grillo. Bezuidenhout also ranked third in the field in SG: Putting and Grillo was 18th. The over/under on the winning score on golfodds.com is 262.5, which is 21.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Denny McCarthy - $10,600 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +1600)
McCarthy is at the top of the class in this field with the top DK price and second shortest odds. He's been sniffing the winner's circle for a few months -- and in designated fields far stouter than this one. He was T8 a the Wells Fargo, runner-up at the Memorial and T7 last time out at the Travelers. McCarthy is ranked fourth on Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting. He wound up in sixth place in this tournament last year. A bit surprisingly to us, he landed at only No. 4 in our model, hurt a bit by his approach play, which is vastly improved but not as good as other top players.
Russell Henley - $10,400 (+1400)
Henley quietly has been surging for months. In his past nine starts beginning with THE PLAYERS, he has eight top-20s. The reason he's flown under the radar is because only one of those was a top-10. If you're gonna pick just one, a tie for fourth at the Masters would be a good way to go. As usual, putting is what's holding him back, ranked 151st on Tour. Henley has played this tournament only two times in the past eight years. He was runner-up in 2019 and T11 in 2021.
Eric Cole - $9,700 (+3000)
Cole leads this field in birdie or better over his past 24 rounds, which is a pretty good indictor for this week. He had played nine straight weeks before taking last week off -- except for the fact that he went and played a mini-tour event as a thank you for all it did for his career. Cole actually has played the Deere before, missing the cut in 2021. But that was a lifetime ago for him; back when he was still a mini-tour regular.
Adam Schenk - $9,500 (+2800)
It will be fascinating to see how Schenk and the three guys above him do this week, because each of them has to be thinking they can win this thing. Schenk already has two top-10s in the Deere -- T6 in 2019 and T4 in 2021 -- and now is light years better as a player. In his past five starts, he has a runner-up (at the Charles Schwab) and two T7s (at the Memorial and last week at the Rocket Mortgage). Schenk placed third in our model.
Tier 2 Values
Emiliano Grillo - $9,200 (+3000)
Despite all those outstanding players in Tier 1, Grillo landed at No. 1 in our model. That didn't even take into account his co-runner-up here last year in his Deere debut. Six weeks ago, Grillo won the Charles Schwab and was T15 last time out at the Travelers. The key for him has been vastly improved putting -- he is ranked sixth in this field in SG: Putting over his past 24 rounds.
Stephan Jaeger - $8,800 (+3000)
Jaeger is coming off a top-10 at the Rocket Mortgage in which he shined statistically across the board -- even putting (26th in the field), where he has struggled this season. He is ranked 30th on Tour for the season in SG: Tee-to-Green. The 34-year-old German has made eight straight cuts, four of which were top-25s, to climb to a career-best 102nd OWGR. He tied for 30th here lat year.
Sepp Straka - $8,600 (+5000)
Straka has stopped the bleeding from early on in 2023. He has made five of his past six cuts, two of which were top-20s, including a T7 at the PGA Championship. Straka is ranked 18th on tour this season in SG: Approach and he's a better-than-average 74th in SG: Putting. He placed 11th in our model and, if not for putting would have been top-5.
Patrick Rodgers - $8,300 (+4000)
Rodgers has made his past five Deere cuts, and he was runner-up back in 2017. He had made seven of eight cuts on Tour this season before missing at the Travelers. He'll likley go as far as his putter will carry him this week.
Tier 3 Values
Mark Hubbard - $7,700 (+6000)
Hubbard has missed his past two cuts -- including one when we picked him -- so that should depress his ownership. He remains a great approach player -- 16th on Tour for the season and second in this field over his past 24 rounds. Hubbard had top-10s in two of his past three starts before those missed cuts and tied for 13th here last year.
Chez Reavie - $7,700 (+5000)
Reavie has come on of late, making nine of his past 10 cuts, including a T4 two weeks back at the Travelers. He did relatively well last week (T29) at the Rocket Mortgage on a course that favors much longer hitters than him. Reavie missed the cut here last year but was 18th in 2021. He ranks in the top-12 in this field in both SG: Approach and Putting over his past 24 rounds.
Patton Kizzire - $7,200 (+11000)
Last week we jumped on a player struggling mightily but with great course history at Detroit Golf Club. Troy Merritt was that player and finished in the top-20. Kizzire hasn't missed 14 straight cuts the way Merritt had, but he's missed four of his past seven and hasn't had a top-25 since March. At TPC Deere Run, he finished 16th last year and 11th the year before, with another top-25 a few years back. For all his troubles, Kizzire still lands at 40th in our model, thanks largely to great recent approach play.
Justin Lower - $7,000 (+11000)
Lower finished eighth last week in Detroit. He ranked third in the field in putting. But let's look a little deeper. He's made six of his past nine cuts. The three misses were all designated events (he's also made designated cuts). Lower tied for 25th in Canada last month. On the season, he's ranked 14th on Tour in SG: Putting and is top-50 in birdie or better. And he tied for 51st here last year.
Long-Shot Values
Zecheng Dou - $6,900 (+15000)
Commonly known as "Marty," Dou has made five of his past six cuts, highlighted by last week's T17 in Detroit and a T5 at the Byron Nelson in May. Two of those made cuts came in designated events. Dou ranks 13th in this field in putting and seventh in birdie or better over his past 24 rounds, landing him at 25th in out model. He played this tournament once before, but it was back in 2018 and he missed the cut.
Austin Smotherman - $6,800 (+25000)
At first glance, it's hard to pull the trigger on Smotherman. He's missed more cuts than he's made this season -- including two in a row and four of his past six. He's ranked in the 100s in every strokes-gained stat but one (Putting, 95th). But then we have to remember the level of his competition this week. Smotherman has had some very good weeks -- T35 at THE PLAYERS, fifth in Mexico and, recently T21 at the designated Charles Schwab. He slots inside the cut line in our model.
Harrison Endycott - $6,500 (+35000)
The PGA Tour rookie from Australia has had a handful good weeks this season, though they have been few and far between. One of them was recently, with a tie for 12th in Canada. Endycott has made about half his cuts this season. He's a short hitter who should benefit from a shorter course (like in Canada). He is a better-than-average putter, his birdie average is, um, average, and his birdie or better is above average.
Cody Gribble - $6,300 (+50000)
For a guy ranked in the 400s in the OWGR, Gribble is not bad. We've picked him before and he made the cut. While he missed last week in Detroit, he's made seven of his past nine, including T34 in Canada. Our model places Gribble inside the cut line, albeit barely. He's ranked 87th in birdie average, which is actually quite good for this field.
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