This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
CANADIAN OPEN
Purse: $6.2M
Winner's Share: $1.116M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Oakville, Ontario, Canada
Course: Glen Abbey Golf Club
Yardage: 7,253
Par: 72
2017 champion: Jhonattan Vegas
Tournament Preview
Pat Fletcher gets his 15 minutes of fame every year right around this time -- he's the last Canadian to win the Canadian Open. Not only did Fletcher's victory come an eternal 64 years ago, but his win ended another 40-year Canadian drought. This tournament is the third oldest in the world, behind the British and U.S. Opens, and since it started in 1904 only six Canadians have won it -- maybe that's because they can play golf only like two months out of the year, right? Get this: of those six, only one of them was actually born in Canada, and you'll of course good ol' Carl Keffer, who won back in 1909 and '14. Canada came agonizingly close in 2004, when Mike Weir lost in a playoff to Vijay Singh, and again three years ago, when David Hearn led with three holes to go, only to see Jason Day birdie the final three to ruin everything. Singh is from Fiji and Day is from Australia, which are two places about as far from Canada as possible while still staying on Earth. Weir has in fact won a tournament in Canada; it just wasn't the national championship. It was the 1999 Air Canada Championship, a tournament also known as the Greater Vancouver Open and played just seven times, lastly in 2002. Having nothing to do with anything, the 1998 GVO resulted in the one and only PGA Tour victory for none other than Brandel Chamblee, who somehow dusted Payne Stewart by three strokes.
So here we go with the 109th edition of the Canadian Open, in its traditional and unfortunate slot in between the Open Championship and WGC-Bridgestone. Whether a Canadian win or not, tournament organizers already are big winners: it was announced that next year the event moves to early June in the higher-profile position of the week before the U.S. Open. Thanks in part to RBC, the field usually is somewhat decent. This year, about 30 players jetted over from Carnoustie, including six of the top 25 in the world and 12 of the top 50. RBC pitchman and two-time tournament runner-up Dustin Johnson heads the field, which also includes Brooks Koepka, Sergio Garcia, and Tommy Fleetwood making his debut in this event. Jhonattan Vegas is shooting for a rare three-peat at Glen Abbey, a feat not seen on Tour since Steve Stricker won the John Deere each year from 2009 to 2011. Sixteen Canadians are also on hand. Weir is back for the 27th time, though the country's best hope is probably 55th-ranked Adam Hadwin.
The tournament more often than not has been played in either Ontario or Quebec, perhaps to at least try to entice more players heading back from Britain. But with the schedule change starting next year, more western parts of Canada should get the chance to play host. For now, Glen Abbey gets the call for the fifth time in six years. It was the first solo design of Jack Nicklaus back in 1976 and it has been the tournament venue 30 times. Abbey's signature is the so-called Valley Holes, Nos. 11 to 15, which cross Sixteen Mile Creek numerous times. Hey, at least they don't use some silly and faux-scary animal name. The 457-yard 14th is traditionally the hardest hole on what often is a very easy course. Last season, Glen Abbey was the ninth easiest on Tour, in large part because it's so short. There were more eagles there last year, 71, than anywhere else on Tour. The course features an odd 35-37 split, with the curious setup of three par-5s in the final six holes, including the very easy 18th. The main defenses of the course are small greens and greenside bunkers, putting an emphasis on greens in regulation. Interestingly, there also have been an inordinate number of double bogeys, especially for an easy course. We'll try to figure out why and break it all down in the Champion's Profile below.
Weather-wise, a chance rain is forecast every day, more on Thursday, but it doesn't appear there will be long delays. Temperatures won't be overly hot, but it will be humid. Right now, the wind is expected to be moderate.
Finally, a really fun and cool feature is back for a second year. The par-3 7th hole will be set up like a hockey rink, with boards instead of ropes, bleachers, marshals dressed as referees and even a Zamboni. Game on!
Key Stats to Winning at Glen Abbey (in order of importance)
Note - The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes gained: tee to green
• Greens in regulation/strokes gained: approach
• Putting average/strokes gained: putting
• Birdie to bogey ratio
Past Champions
2017 - Jhonattan Vegas (Glen Abbey)
2016 - Jhonattan Vegas (Glen Abbey)
2015 - Jason Day (Glen Abbey)
2014 - Tim Clark (Royal Montreal)
2013 - Brandt Snedeker (Glen Abbey)
2012 - Scott Piercy (Hamilton)
2011 - Sean O'Hair (Shaughnessy)
2010 - Carl Pettersson (St. George's)
2009 - Nathan Green (Glen Abbey)
2008 - Chez Reavie (Glen Abbey)
Champion's Profile
However the golfers want to get from Point A to B, tee to green is the key to success at Glen Abbey. Whether they bomb their drives or opt for more accuracy, they will be staring down small greens guarded by bunkers. In past years, the rough has not been overly penal, so there's been little reason not to let fly. The longer hitters have an advantage, as they usually do, but as we always say, there's more than one way to win. What's so interesting and perplexing about Glen Abbey is that it led the Tour in eagles last year but also caused a high number of double bogeys or worse. On the surface, that doesn't compute. For sure, there are some very easy par-5s, some of the easiest in all of golf, and that explains the eagles. Maybe golfers salivating over these par-5s, three of which incredibly are Nos. 13, 16 and 18, take too much of a gamble. That's why we've added birdie to bogey ratio in the key stats. We're trying to identify the guys with a big differential, guys who know when to go for it and when to hold back. And, of course, there's also putting. Jhonattan Vegas isn't a great putter, but Jason Day and Brandt Snedeker are/were. Vegas won at 21-under last year and 12-under the year before. Day's winning score was 17-under and Snedeker's was 16-under. Basically, all over the map. Good luck with that.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Dustin Johnson - $11,700 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 6-1)
Johnson costs $900 more than Brooks Koepka, the No. 2 guy on the DraftKings board who is only $300 more than No. 3 Tommy Fleetwood. That's a lot. But interestingly, Johnson is $500 cheaper than he was last year here. At most any price, Johnson is a buy. His tie for eighth last year was actually his worst result in three visits, after a pair of runners-up in 2013 and '16. Missing the cut at Carnoustie isn't optimum, or is it? Johnson should be fresh. He's first on Tour in strokes gained: tee to green and birdie to bogey ratio.
Tommy Fleetwood - $10,500 (16-1)
It's tough bypassing Koepka, and we may rue the decision, but you can't pick every guy at the very top. We mean, sure, you can, but that doesn't help gamers formulate lineups by just picking the best guys. So we turn to Fleetwood, whose tee-to-green and greens-in-regulation numbers aren't as good as they usually are, but much higher than Koepka's. He's 13th in strokes gained: tee to green and 60th in GIR. Fleetwood is also ninth in strokes gained: off the tee, but the surprise is, he's 18th in strokes gained: around the green. The Englishman is coming off a T12 at the Open, which was a disappointment for him.
Tony Finau - $9,800 (14-1)
Finau tied for ninth at Carnoustie, and it normally gives us pause to tab a guy who was in the mix deep into Sunday at a major the week before. It can be hard to recharge so quickly. But Glen Abbey is right up Finau's alley, and he tied for fifth there last year (following a T27 last year at the Open). He's ranked 16th in strokes gained: tee to green, T17 in birdie vs. bogey ratio and 19th in strokes gained: approach.
Tier 2 Values
Joaquin Niemann - $9,400 (25-1)
The 19-year-old Chilean still isn't listed in the season-long stat tables, but over the past few weeks he's been top-10 in strokes gained: off the tee, tee to green and approach. He has three top-10s and five top-25s in his past six starts, all at courses he'd never played before -- just like Glen Abbey. Niemann has zoomed up to No. 167 in the world.
Ian Poulter - $9,100 (40-1)
We were considering Gary Woodland here, in part because he tied for fourth last year, but $9,200 is simply too rich for someone who hasn't had a top-10 in almost seven months. If Woodland were still $7,900, as he was last year, different story. Instead we turn to Poulter, who was third at Glen Abbey last year. He is Exhibit A that there's more than one way to play the course. He averaged less than 285 yards off the tee, but was T10 in the field in greens in regulation, T6 in scrambling and second in strokes gained: putting. Like Johnson, Poulter is coming off a rather stunning missed cut at Carnoustie, but the bright side is he should be fresher for this week.
Steve Stricker - $8,800 (60-1)
Stricker likely will play the course much like Poulter will. He's ranked 28th in greens in regulation and 37th in strokes gained: tee to green. This is a big price to pay for Stricker, especially for someone who's not putting as well as we know he can, but it goes to a lack of depth in the field -- at least after a fairly strong top of the DK board. Stricker has four top-25s in 10 starts this season, one of them at The Players. He is trying hard to make the playoffs; right now, he's 141st.
Charley Hoffman - $8,700 (25-1)
Hoffman was runner-up to Jhonattan Vegas last year, T7 in 2015 and T16 in 2013. He surely has had a down season for him, but lately there's been a reversal, with three straight top-10s, including T17 at Carnoustie.
Keegan Bradley - $8,100 (50-1)
Bradley is 12th in strokes gained: tee to green, second in approach and 15th in greens in regulation. He's outside the top-90 in birdie to bogey ratio, and of course that speaks to putting woes. Bradley tied for 14th last year at Glen Abbey, and you wonder how much higher on the leaderboard he can go without improving on the greens. Bradley is now 199th in strokes gained: putting; if he could even get to only to around 100th, he'd be winning tournaments. That's how good the rest of his game is.
Tier 3 Values
Byeong Hun An - $7,800 (50-1)
Coming off a tie for 51st at Carnoustie, An is making his tournament debut. He's only 58th in FedEx Cup[ point standings, but 21st on Tour in strokes gained: tee to green, 17th in SG off the tee and 38th in approach. An's putting is middle of the road, ranked 110th, a number that Bradley would kill for.
Chris Kirk - $7,600 (60-1)
Kirk tied for 14th at Glen Abbey two years ago. He is ranked 30th -- 30th! -- in strokes gained: tee to green, plus 12th in both SG approach and birdie vs. bogey. Kirk has three top-25s in his past five starts, including one of four top-10s on the season.
Joel Dahmen - $7,400 (80-1)
Yes, Dahmen will be a popular pick and, yes, his joyride can't go on forever. But he has four top-25s in a row, two of them top-10s. And it's not like he was a complete slouch before, because he has six other top-25s. Really, this price is way low. During his recent hot streak, Dahmen has been a top-10 guy in strokes gained: off the tee and greens in regulation. For the season, he's tied for 30th in birdie to bogey ratio, so he's been playing smart golf all along.
J.J. Spaun - $7,200 (100-1)
The concern about Spaun is, he's really loaded up on two tournaments: a second at the RSM Classic in the fall and a third at the Byron Nelson in May. But Spaun is also coming off a tie for 13th at the Greenbrier. He's ranked 38th in strokes gained: tee to green and 14th in both SG approach and greens in regulation. He's also T33 in birdie to bogey ratio.
Long-Shot Values
Stewart Cink - $7,100 (60-1)
We have to admit, we love Cink, we root for him. So we have to guard against jumping on board too freely and too often. He tied for fifth here three years ago, not so good the past two. But he has been on a big-time roll of late, with four consecutive top-25s, including T24 last week at Carnoustie (Cink of course won the Open in 2009). He is 40th in strokes gained: tee to green and ninth in approach. Yes, he's been really dialed in with his irons. Putting? Don't ask.
Sam Ryder - $7,100 (80-1)
Ryder was a guy we had our eye on coming off a great Web.com season. We knew there would be growing pains, but we wrote here we'd stick with him. We didn't. He missed his first four cuts back in the fall. Now, he's made four of his past five, with top-10s in his past two starts, a co-runner-up at the Deere and a T7 at the Barbasol. Ryder is very accurate with his irons, ranking third in greens in regulation.
Bronson Burgoon - $7,100 (80-1)
Burgoon missed the cut last week at Carnoustie but just getting there speaks to his game. He had top-10s in two of his prior three starts, including tying Ryder for second at the Deere. Burgoon is 57th in strokes gained: tee to green, but then top-50 in SG off the tee, approach and greens in regulation. He missed the cut two years ago in his lone visit to Glen Abbey.
Vaughn Taylor - $6,900 (Field, 13-2)
Well, this means we have picked zero Canadians. (No, it is Nick Taylor who is from north of the border.) Taylor has cashed in five of his past six starts, two of them top-25s. He's made the cut two of the past three years at Glen Abbey. He's is 74th in strokes gained: tee to green and 52nd in approach. Importantly, Taylor ranked T43 in birdie to bogey ratio. Who is he tied with in that stat? Francesco Molinari.
