This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP
Purse: $7.3M
Winner's Share: $1,314,000
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Charlotte, N.C.
Course: Quail Hollow Club
Yardage: 7,575
Par: 72
2015 champion: Rory McIlroy
Tournament Preview
After some decidedly weak fields, we now ramp up in advance of next week's Players Championship. Two-time and defending champion Rory McIlroy headlines the six golfers from the top-10 in the world on hand, and 13 of the top-25. Former champion Rickie Fowler and Adam Scott are also in action, but Dustin Johnson was a late withdrawal on Tuesday morning. Interestingly enough, we still won't see Jordan Spieth, who has been idle since the Masters, but will be back next week. The tournament also marks the return of Jim Furyk from wrist surgery; he hasn't played since the Barclays and now sits at No. 25 in the world. He won here in 2006. Quail Hollow is rapidly growing in stature, as it is set to play host to its first major next year, the PGA Championship, plus the 2021 Presidents Cup. The course, at least in theory, is divided in two: the first 15 holes, where birdies are plentiful, and the final three holes, ominously known as The Green Mile. The par-4 16th measures 508 yards, the par-3 17th is long at 221 and the par-4 18th comes home just shy of 500 (493). Last year, simply playing those three holes in par resulted in a whopping 3.4 stroke advantage over the field.
Key Stats to Winning at Quail Hollow
• Driving distance
• Strokes gained: tee to green
• Scrambling
• Par 5 scoring
Past Champions
2015 - Rory McIlroy
2014 - J.B. Holmes
2013 - Derek Ernst
2012 - Rickie Fowler
2011 - Lucas Glover
2010 - Rory McIlroy
2009 - Sean O'Hair
2008 - Anthony Kim
2007 - Tiger Woods
2006 - Jim Furyk
Champion's Profile:
Long, long and long. Did we mention long? At nearly 7,600 yards, Quail Hollow favors the big hitters. Since 2011, golfers have hit just 49 percent of fairways, but still birdies have been in abundance. Last year, McIlroy shot a tournament-record 21-under to win by a whopping seven strokes, including a course-record 61 on Saturday. He was 13-under on the par-5s alone, and we don't need any more evidence that par-5 is a difference-maker. McIlroy led the field in driving distance, was tied for second in greens in regulation and was first in par-4 scoring. The 2014 winner, J.B. Holmes, is another massive hitter. In 2013, we witnessed one of the biggest surprise wins in recent PGA Tour memory in Derek Ernst, who hasn't had a sniff of victory, or even any success, since then.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Rory McIlroy - $12,800 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 4-1)
Rickie Fowler - $10,900 (12-1)
Adam Scott -- $10,600 (15-1)
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Hideki Matsuyama - $9,300 (20-1)
J.B. Holmes - $9,100 (25-1)
Daniel Berger - $8,400 (30-1)
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Webb Simpson - $7,900 (60-1)
Brendan Steele - $7,200 (80-1)
Harold Varner III - $6,900 (Field, 4-1)
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Kyle Reifers - $6,500 (Field, 4-1)
Lucas Glover - $6,300 (100-1)
Jim Herman - $6,200 (Field, 4-1)
Sung Kang - $6,200 (Field, 4-1)
Vijay Singh - $5,300 (Field, 4-1)
MY PICKS THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Cash Game Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Rory McIlroy - $12,800
Hideki Matsuyama - $9,300
Webb Simpson - $7,900
Ryan Moore - $7,500
Brendan Steele - $7,200
Vijay Singh - $5,300
On the surface, our low-risk and high-risk lineups appear inverted this week. Often, when picking the top-priced golfer, you need to take risks toward the bottom. But we feel this is a pretty safe group of six. Down below in the high-risk lineup, even though there is no one with a small dollar value, we see incredible risk/reward. McIlroy, far and away the top dollar, is a safe pick and will be highly owned. He's the defending champ, a two-time champ, with three other top-10s. And he's the longest/straightest driver on tour. Matsuyama always flies under the radar in terms of ownership, and he's almost always in the mix. Simpson's putting woes are well known, but Quail Hollow is his home course and he was runner-up last year, fourth in 2013. Moore is Mr. Steady, with five straight cuts made, including two top-10s. Steele is a long hitter and strong on the par-5s. He's made four of the past five cuts here, with a top-10 last year. Finally, with only $5,300 left, Singh seems like an incredible value at that price. Yes, his best days are far behind him, but he knows this course and has played it well through the years -- he was the 2005 champion -- and has a top-30 as recently as two years ago. All we want is for Singh to reach the weekend.
Higher-Risk Tournament Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Phil Mickelson - $9,500
J.B. Holmes - $9,100
Jim Furyk - $8,000
Justin Thomas - $8,000
Gary Woodland - $7,800
Tony Finau - $7,600
Talk about high risk. Simply writing "Phil Mickelson" in a sentence should come with its own warning label. Yes, Mickelson plays Quail Hollow every year, makes the cut every year and has amassed seven top-10s, but he's Mickelson. It seems every time we expect him to do well ... trunk slam. Remember, he has missed his last two cuts overall. Continuing on, this is one of the riskier lineups we can recall picking. Holmes won two years ago but missed the cut last year. Furyk is just back from a long layoff, probably won't be highly owned, but historically has played the course well. A strong finish would be a surprise. Thomas, Woodland and Finau are all bombers who can be great one week and atrocious the next. Woodland, in fact, has been pretty awful all season. But he finished fourth at Quail Hollow last year. This is Thomas' first start since his Bahamas Brocation -- will his head be ready for golf?
