Arnold Palmer Invitational Recap: Molinari Enjoying Career Year

Brandel Chamblee said something on Golf Channel during the Arnold Palmer Invitational that was just spot-on. He said that if there were only more rough on the PGA Tour, golfers couldn't just bomb it off the tee with little concern about where the ball landed. His point was that there should be retribution for missing a fairway. He's right. There isn't enough of that in U.S. golf these days.

Which brings us to the final leaderboard at rough-laden Bay Hill:

1. Francesco Molinari, 12-under
2. Matthew Fitzpatrick, 10-under
T3. Tommy Fleetwood  9-under
T3. Rafael Cabrera-Bello
T3. Sungjae Im
T6. Rory McIlroy, 8-under
T6. Matt Wallace
T6. Sung Kang
T6. Keith Mitchell

One of those things is not like the other.

In one of the biggest tournaments on the PGA Tour calendar, there was only one American in the top-nine finishers. The leaderboard was dominated by Europeans, led by Francesco Molinari, who closed with a scintillating 8-under 64 to come from way back to win.

If there is a worldwide poster boy for putting the ball in the fairway, it is Molinari. The Italian used that formula to breakthrough success in 2018, winning the Open Championship and vaulting into the top-10 in the world rankings. This win, his third on the PGA Tour, returned him to No. 7 in the OWGR.

As is tradition, perhaps the best victory ceremony in all of golf, Palmer's grandson, Sam Saunders, helped Molinari don the winner's red cardigan, a sweater made famous by his grandfather. (Saunders poignantly made the cut for the first time in four years, but unfortunately he faded badly on the weekend.) 

Following Molinari on the leaderboard came Fitzpatrick, Fleetwood and Wallace from England; Cabrera Bello from Spain; McIlroy from Ireland; and Im and Kang from South Korea.

Mitchell was the lone American, and that is telling. American golf has become one big grip-it-and-rip-it. That's because even if the ball doesn't find the fairway, there is so little rough in so many PGA Tour events that it does nothing to make the longest hitters think twice about an alternate plan. They can wedge the ball out rather easily and onto the green. Not at Bay Hill. Players such as Phil Mickelson and Brooks Koepka have made no secret of their game plan; it's far from a coincidence that they both missed the Bay Hill cut. (Mickelson tweeted on Sunday from TPC Sawgrass, where he said there was not much rough, and he was a happy camper heading into THE PLAYERS Championship.)

So maybe the move to neutralize all the long hitters is not something so drastic as modifying the golf ball; maybe all that's needed is to keep the mowers in the shed for a few days. Let it grow, let it grow, let it grow!

Now, a little more Molinari. The Italian had the finest season of his career at age 35, thanks to a laser-like tee-to-green game, and he showed for at least one week that he can be just as fruitful at 36. Molinari won by leading the API field in strokes gained: off the tee. But while so many guys soar to the top of that stat by going way long with a dash of accuracy, he did it the other way. Molinari was only 36th in the field in driving distance but third in accuracy. It didn't even matter, obviously, that he was ranked only 34th in strokes gained: approach and 44th in SG around the green (he was fourth in SG putting).

That may not be of much help to next month at Augusta, which traditionally sports little rough, but it could be invaluable for Molinari at the PGA Championship at Bethpage Black in May and especially at the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach in June.

MONDAY BACKSPIN

Rory McIlroy
Maybe we've got to all collectively lay off this "McIlroy is close" thing. Sure, he had finished in the top five in four straight tournaments coming in. But there are more powerful streaks in play here. Paired with 54-hole leader Fitzpatrick, this was the seventh time in the last 12 months that McIlroy had been in the final group on Sunday and failed to convert. Sometimes, like two weeks ago in Mexico, he was far off Dustin Johnson's lead. But this time, he was only a shot behind. All McIlroy could muster was an even-par 72. He has now gone two and a half years with only one worldwide win. That was last year at Bay Hill, and before that you have to go back to the 2016 Tour Championship. On one hand, we can say that McIlroy is on form heading into the Masters, which he needs to complete the career grand slam. On the other hand, we don't see how McIlroy can win at Augusta while fighting such an inability to close. After all, he was in the final group a year ago when Patrick Reed came away with the green jacket.

Matthew Fitzpatrick
Sometimes it's easy to forget that Fitzpatrick is only 24. It seems he's been around for years, and he does have five European Tour wins. But he had never shown much on this side of the pond. Obviously, winning on Sunday would've changed all that. Fitzpatrick didn't play poorly and, if not for that lights-out round from Molinari, his 1-under 71 would've gotten the job done much of the time. Previously, Fitzpatrick's best stateside finish was a tie for seventh at the 2016 Masters. Keep that in mind for next month – and that he still is only 24. Fitzpatrick is up to 33rd in the world.

Matt Wallace
A year ago at this time, the Englishman was outside the top-150 in the OWGR. Now, he's 35th and will be in all the big tournaments this year. Wallace won three times on the Euro Tour in 2018, then added a runner-up at the season-ending DP World Tour Championship. Wallace is not as young as his countryman Fitzpatrick. He's 28 and appears headed into his prime.

Rafael Cabrera-Bello
The Spaniard entered the week in the top-35 in the world and with top-25s in four of his five 2019 starts, including the WGC-Mexico, yet was given the measly price of $7,500 on DraftKings. Not much respect. Cabrera Bello came out and shot a 7-under 65 for the first-round lead. He wound up tied for third, which matched his best showing going all the way back to Thanksgiving time in 2017. Cabrera Bello is now 30th in the OWGR. He tied for 17th at THE PLAYERS Championship a year ago and for fourth in 2016. He's already priced at only $7,400 on DK at TPC Sawgrass.

Keith Mitchell
We can't stress enough how impressed we are that Mitchell not only made the cut, but finished in the top-10 just days after his life-altering first PGA Tour win. A lot of young guys in his situation would've partied till Wednesday night. Mitchell obviously didn't. Not only did he show gamers and everyone else that his win at the Honda Classic was likely no one-hit wonder, but he played his way into the Open Championship with Sungjae Im and Sung Kang. The top three Bay Hill finishers not already exempt into what is now the final major of the year got berths. Mitchell, now ranked 58th, will be at Royal Portrush in July.

Henrik Stenson
Things did not look good for the aging Swede coming into the week. And after an opening 77 at a course he had had repeated high finishes, well, things looked a lot worse. But Stenson played 11 shots better on Friday to make the cut, then continued rising the leaderboard to finish T17 (and that was with two closing bogeys). Stenson is 42 and had been awful at the start of 2019, missing cuts where he had normally excelled. When that happens, at that age, it's only naturally to wonder. We'll need more evidence from Stenson that he's back. But it's a start, and that's better than the alternative. 

Brian Harman
Harman is 10 years younger than Stenson at 32. A little more than a year ago he was a personal-best 20th in the world rankings. Now, following yet another missed cut, he's 79th. Harman hasn't so much as finished in the top-30 since last June's T6 at the Travelers. At first, he just didn't have high finishes. Now, he's missing cuts, in five of his last seven starts. It's a marvel the diminutive Harman was able to hang with all of today's long hitters as long as he did. Maybe it's finally caught up with him.

Si Woo Kim
We wrote about Kim when he was finishing top-five in consecutive starts by putting out of this world. Well, Kim returned to Earth at Bay Hill, not only missing the cut but ranking about 120th (out of 123) in putting over the first two rounds. Naturally, we'll be looking next week at TPC Sawgrass to see which Kim shows up: the one who can't putt or the one who won the elite tournament as a 21-year-old in 2017.

Cameron Champ
It would've been foolish to think Champ, the darling of the fall season, could continue at that pace once fields got harder after the New Year. But such a precipitous decline was not expected, either. Champ missed the cut at Bay Hill, his fourth trunk-slam in six starts in 2019 (after the no-cut TOC). Champ's best showing is T28 at Pebble Beach. His win was at the opposite-field Sanderson Farms so, as of now, we will not be able to see the prodigious driver get a crack at Augusta next month.

Matt Every
Unfortunately for a lot of gamers, things dovetailed at the just the wrong time. Every had fallen on very hard times for a few years. But going 4-for-4 in top-20 finishes to start this season combined with Bay Hill arriving on the schedule made the two-time API champion a popular DFS choice. Not only did Every miss the cut, he tied for 119th out of 123. His string of top-20s, while far better than his record over the past few years, was a mirage. Two of them came in opposite-field events and a third was in a regular fall-season event. The T14 at Pebble was legit, albeit in a watered-down field in a week of great weather impact.