This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
WM Phoenix Open Betting Preview
One of the most exciting weeks on the PGA Tour schedule is here, as players and a swath of fans head to Phoenix for the WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale.
The party atmosphere of the crowd -- especially at the stadium par-3 16th hole -- is unlike anything else in golf and makes this the highest-attended golf event of the year. Although this is not a Signature Event, the field still includes seven of the top 20 players in the Official World Golf Ranking, and it is headlined by Scottie Scheffler -- the tournament favorite at meager 9-2 odds.
Last year, Scheffler -- at 15-1 -- successfully defended his 2022 title with a two-stroke victory over Nick Taylor.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11:00 AM ET Wednesday.
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Course Characteristics
Par-71, 7,261 yards
Average Strokes Gained Rankings: WM Phoenix Open Winners Since 2019
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 10.8
- SG: Approach: 15.2
- SG: Around-the-Green: 33.8
- SG: Putting: 9.2
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 7.4
- Driving Distance: 19.0
- Driving Accuracy: 19.8
TPC Scottsdale has average length by PGA Tour standards, and it includes four par-4s over 470 yards. It should be noted, though, that the course plays a bit shorter due to the elevation. The back nine often leads to an exciting finish, as the last six holes include a pair of reachable par-5s, the 16th hole mentioned above and the driveable par-4 17th. Water is very much in play on three of the final four holes. Players don't have the option to lay up off the tee often, so I'm looking for those that possess a good combination of length and accuracy with driver. I'll also look toward those who approach it well from 150-200 yards, with a lot of iron shots coming in that range.
Scottsdale Savants
The following players, with a minimum of eight rounds played, have the lowest scoring average at TPC Scottsdale over the last five years.
- Scottie Scheffler: 67.4
- Justin Thomas: 67.7
- Sungjae Im: 68.4
- Sahith Theegala: 68.8
- Rickie Fowler: 68.8
It's no surprise that the two-time defending champion tops the list, and he also finished tied for seventh here in 2021. He gained over two strokes per round on approach in his win last year and seems to putt it well on the poa trivialis greens. His odds are rather small, but this is also one of those places where course history tends to matter more than it usually does. Another player that has found success in Phoenix in Theegala, who may have won the tournament two years ago had it not been for an unfortunate bounce on Sunday's 17th hole that left him one shot shy of a playoff. He began 2024 with a runner-up at Kapalua and looks primed for a big week. He also looks like a value, as he is tied for 14th on the betting board at 40-1 odds.
Drive for Show
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes off the tee over their last 20 rounds.
- Byeong Hun An: 0.88
- Scottie Scheffler: 0.84
- Corey Conners: 0.80
- Kevin Yu: 0.73
- Keith Mitchell: 0.72
An may not be one of the first players that comes to mind when you think of elite drivers, but he's made significant improvements in that aspect of his game over the past year. In fact, on a per-round basis, he gained over half a stroke off the tee in 13 of his last 18 tournaments. Although An -- listed at 28-1 odds -- hasn't played this event since 2021, he has made the cut in all five of his attempts and has posted a pair of top-10s. Another player on this list who has made all his cuts here -- four to be exact -- is Conners, another excellent ball striker who ranked 11th in SG: Off-the-Tee last season. His issues in the short game leave a bit to be desired, though, and have led to a mediocre start to his 2024 campaign.
WM Phoenix Open Bets: Outright Picks
Justin Thomas (11-1)
These long-shot winners can't keep doing it every week, can they? Thomas has been one of the hottest players to start the year with back-to-back top-10 finishes. His three previous starts all resulted in top-5s as well. With five straight top-15s at this event, I'm willing to bet him even at short odds.
Max Homa (18-1)
Homa has traditionally played well at TPC Scottsdale, having made all five of his cuts with a best finish of T6. He has ranked top-5 here in SG: Off-the-Tee (fifth in 2022) and approach (third in 2021), so he should be in contention if he can piece it all together.
J.T. Poston (35-1)
Poston has never been in contention to win here, but he does have a solid track record, with two top-25s and four made cuts over five appearances. He has made tremendous strides on the greens, gaining strokes with the putter in 12 of his last 13 tournaments.
WM Phoenix Open Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Alex Noren (11-2)
Noren has been in excellent form for four months, making the cut in six straight opportunities to do so and posting a pair of top-5s over that stretch. He finished tied for sixth here two years ago, making him a nice value at these odds.
Michael Kim (9-1)
Kim sits 103rd in the OWGR but has been much better than that recently, finishing tied for sixth in Palm Springs and getting off to a fast start at Torrey Pines before a Saturday 77. With a pair of top-10s over his last seven appearances, the value is certainly there.
Sam Ryder (12-1)
Ryder is an intriguing dark horse, having posted results of T23 and T20 in his last two trips to Phoenix. I think the oddsmakers are overlooking him, as he recorded four top-15 results over his last 12 events.
WM Phoenix Open Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Sungjae Im (-120) over Tom Kim
I hit both matchup bets last week, and I'll try to keep the ball rolling with a player I think has a safe floor in Im, whose worst finish across four starts here was a T34. Kim has struggled to start 2024 and finished only T50 in his debut here last year while losing strokes from tee to green. As such, I prefer Im, who is the longer hitter of the two and also owns a better short game.
Erik van Rooyen (-110) over Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Bezuidenhout typically isn't a great fit at places where you need to drive the ball well, as evidenced by his missed cut here last year. van Rooyen, on the other hand, has a good combination of length and accuracy off the tee, and he also posted six top-25s over his last seven starts. I'm willing to lay the juice for that type of consistency.
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