2024 The Sentry Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Updated on January 2, 2024 9:10PM EST

The Sentry Betting Preview

Happy New Year, golf bettors!

Following a six-week layoff golf makes its much-anticipated return, as the PGA Tour kicks off its 2024 schedule with The Sentry in Maui. The event has been dubbed the Tournament of Champions since its inception in 1953 but drops the moniker this year, as non-winners have been invited to Hawaii since 2021. Scottie Scheffler -- the favorite at 11-2 odds -- headlines a 59-man field and is one of seven top-10 players in the Official World Golf Ranking making the trip. All will play all four rounds, as there will be no cut.

Last year, tournament favorite Jon Rahm -- at 8-1 -- surged in the final round to defeat Collin Morikawa by two strokes.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 9:00 PM ET Tuesday.

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Course Characteristics

Par-73, 7,596 yards

Average Strokes Gained Rankings: The Sentry Winners Since 2019

SG: Off-the-Tee: 4.2
SG: Approach: 11.6
SG: Around-the-Green: 9.4
SG: Putting: 3.6
SG: Tee-to-Green: 4.8
Driving Distance: 8.8
Driving Accuracy: 20.8

The Plantation Course at Kapalua is unique in the sense that it's the only course the Tour visits that's a par-73. That's because there are only three par-3s. Off the tee, players are presented with some of the widest fairways on Tour. They average approximately 45 yards across, and there is minimal rough or penalty for errant drives. Most analysts view this as a second-shot course, although some of the approach skill is negated by long rollouts that leaves players with more wedge approaches inside 125 yards than the average Tour setup. The historic stats above argue that SG: Off-the-Tee and driving distance are positive indicators for success, but a solid all-around game tends to be needed. I'll look to target quality putters -- especially those who succeed on bermudagrass -- and birdie-makers considering the winner of the event has reached at least 25-under three consecutive years. I'm also giving a boost to golfers who have played this event before, as the uniqueness of the course makes it a challenge for first-timers.

Captains of Kapalua

The following golfers, with a minimum of two appearances, have the lowest scoring average at Kapalua over the last five years.

Although Im has not won in Maui, he's shown consistent results at the first event of the year, finishing T13 or better in all three of his appearances with 10 of his 12 rounds coming in the 60s. His lone appearance this fall was at the ZOZO Championship, where he finished T12, so I expect him to be in good form. Surprisingly, Im comes in a bit under the radar outside the top 10 betting choices at 35-1. A bit higher on the betting board we find Schuaffele, the 2019 event champion who comes in as the sixth betting choice at 14-1. A top-5 finisher in three of his six trips here, he's looking to rebound from a season in which he didn't win but did manage a top-10 in eight of his last 15 appearances.

Drive for Dough

These five players gained the most strokes off the tee over their last 20 rounds.

Scheffler is the lone player to make both lists, and his combination of success here and driving dominance makes him the clear player to beat. Although it was an unofficial event, he comes in on the heels of an impressive performance last month at the Hero World Challenge -- an event he won by three strokes. If Scheffler can shake the putting woes he experienced in 2023, he could be in line for the best season of his already-impressive career. Another playing looking to begin his year on a high note is Homa, who is listed at 12-1 and is coming off his best Kapalua result -- a T3 a year ago. It's difficult to find something not to like about Homa, who won his lone DP World Tour start in the fall against a solid field for his sixth consecutive top-10 finish.

The Sentry: Outright Picks

Patrick Cantlay (12-1)

Much like Schauffele, Cantlay is coming off a season in which he has to be disappointed that he didn't win. He had eight top-5 finishes but could not make it across the finish line. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him end that drought at a place where he has recorded two fourth-place finishes since 2020.

Collin Morikawa (12-1)

Morikawa will look to rebound from his disappointing final round here last year -- one which led to him losing both the six-stroke lead he held after three rounds and eventually the tournament. He has finished no worse than tied for seventh in four of his trips to the Plantation Course and picked up a win during the fall.

Russell Henley (35-1)

Henley has experienced success in Hawaii, winning the Sony Open and finishing tied for third here in 2015. He didn't play well here a year ago but was also third to last in putting. He closed last season strong with five consecutive top-15 results.

The Sentry: Other Wagers

Luke List
Top-10 Finish: 13-2

List put on a ball-striking display here last year, ranking third in SG: Off-the-Tee and eighth in SG: Approach. However, he finished T11 due to a poor week on the greens. He enters in much better form this year after making all six of his cuts in the fall and notching a a win at the Sanderson Farms Championship.

Brendon Todd
Top-10 Finish: 15-2

This will be Todd's fourth trip to Kapalua, and he has one top-10 in which he led the field in SG: Approach. His strengths of wedge play -- he was sixth in proximity from 50-125 yards last season -- and putting -- 22nd last season -- should be a good recipe for success.

Eric Cole
Top-5 Finish: 10-1

You'd be hard-pressed to find a golfer in better form right now considering a lot of the top players played sparingly in the fall, if at all. Cole, on the other hand, finished top-5 in four out of five fall appearances. That provides some nice value at this price, even if the competition will be tougher.

The Sentry: Head-to-Head Matchups

Hideki Matsuyama (+100) over Brian Harman

Matsuyama is a player I expect to have a bounceback season after dealing with injuries over the past couple years. He's posted three top-5 finishes here and is far superior in the ball-striking department compared to Harman. I wouldn't be surprised to see Harman regress in 2024, so I'll take the value at even money.

Tony Finau (-130) over Cameron Young

Usually I don't lay odds like this, but this seems like a safe fade against Young, who struggled to end the year and is going through a caddie change. Meanwhile, Finau has a pair of top-10s here and more experience at the course. He also looked much better than Young at the Hero World Challenge.

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