2024 The Genesis Invitational Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Published on February 13, 2024

The Genesis Invitational Betting Preview

The PGA Tour heads back to California for the final event in the "West Coast Swing" -- The Genesis Invitational at the famed Riviera Country Club.

The third Signature Event of the year features a 70-player field. There will be a 36-hole cut down to the top 50 players plus ties, but also anyone within 10 shots of the lead, so it remains to be seen how many golfers will actually play the weekend. Tiger Woods makes a much-anticipated return after playing just a pair of events last year, while Scottie Scheffler is once again the tournament favorite at 13-2 odds.

Last year, favorite Jon Rahm -- at 7-1 -- outdueled Max Homa by two strokes for his 10th PGA Tour victory.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 9:00 PM ET Tuesday.

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Course Characteristics

Par-71, 7,322 yards

Average Strokes Gained Rankings: The Genesis Invitational Winners Since 2019

SG: Off-the-Tee: 19.8
SG: Approach: 6.4
SG: Around-the-Green: 20.0
SG: Putting: 14.6
SG: Tee-to-Green: 4.2
Driving Distance: 12.2
Driving Accuracy: 50.2

Riviera, located just outside Los Angeles, is one of the most well-known venues the Tour visits, and this will be the 60th time it has hosted this event. The opening hole is a downhill par-5 that plays much closer to a par-4, and the signature hole on the course is the par-4 10th hole, which plays just over 300 yards and has bunkers surrounding both sides of the greens. Players have a chance at eagle, but the sand also leads to many double bogeys or worse. Off the tee, players are faced with many dogleg holes and tough-to-hit fairways, and we've seen much more of a premium on driving distance -- four par-4s check in over 470 yards -- over accuracy as the rough isn't penal and there is essentially no water danger on the course. Iron play tends to be a key factor, with the winner leading the field in SG: Approach in consecutive years, and we'll see a lot of approach shots in the 150-200 yard range.

Rolling at Riviera

The following players, with a minimum of eight rounds played, have the lowest scoring average at Riviera County Club over the last five years.

Hovland tops the list even though his best finish is a share for fourth in 2022. He has made all three of his cuts here with a worst finish of T20. He's done it through exceptional ball striking, ranking top-20 in both SG: Off-the-Tee and Approach in all three appearances. Hovland is tied for the third betting favorite at 14-1 odds, and deservedly so. Not too far behind him on the board is Homa at 18-1. If there's one tournament he circles on the calendar, this is it. The 2021 champion has posted four consecutive top-10 finishes at Riviera, but he has not posted a top-10 through four starts in 2024 and is coming off his worst statistical driving week in over two years. Still, it's hard to imagine him not being in contention with his track record.

Approach at Will

These golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.

I know it seems redundant to see Scheffler atop another strokes gained list, but I'm not sure if it gets talked about enough when it comes to how good his iron play has been. He led the field in this category last week in Phoenix and has been no worse than ninth in SG: Approach through four tournaments. It's remarkable to see anyone a half stroke better than the next best over a 20-round sample. Another player who tends to stand out with his iron play is Schauffele, who checks in at 14-1 odds. He has already posted three top-10s through four events this year, and the main question mark is his wrist, as he withdrew prior to the WM Phoenix Open following a poor week at Pebble Beach. He should be a factor if healthy, but the extent of the injury leaves bettors somewhat guessing heading into the tournament.

The Genesis Invitational: Outright Picks

Ludvig Aberg (20-1)

Aberg has been hot lately, posting back-to-back top-10 finishes in California, highlighted by a runner-up at Pebble Beach in his last start. This will be his first start at Riviera, and when you combine driving it long and straight with strong iron play, it's difficult to find a course that isn't going to fit his game.

Tommy Fleetwood (35-1)

If you like quality all-around players -- and I do -- Fleetwood ranked 33rd or better in every strokes gained category least season. The odds here are pretty lofty considering he posted a win and a runner-up over his last three DP World Tour starts against quality fields.

Sahith Theegala (35-1)

Theegala makes for a nice course fit considering his main weakness is being wild off the tee. Most players struggle to hit fairways consistently here. The rest of his game is well above average, and the California native finished tied for sixth at Riviera last year.

The Genesis Invitational: Other Wagers

Sungjae Im
Top-10 Finish: 9-2

The main thing I like about Im this week are these odds in a small field. His results were poor the last few weeks, but he's too good of a ball striker not to turn it around soon. He's also gained strokes off the tee in all five of his starts this year.

Adam Scott
Top-5 Finish: 11-2

If you like the course history angle, Scott's track record at Riviera is about as good as it gets. He's a two-time champion -- most recently in 2020 -- who finished tied for fourth here two years ago and has seven top-10s across 15 appearances. Scott closed with rounds of 65-66 in Phoenix, so he enters with momentum.

Matt Kuchar
Top-10 Finish: 11-1

It's easy to overlook Kuchar in this stacked field, but this is a venue he's traditionally played well at, having made 14-of-16 cuts and posting a pair of top-10s over his last four appearances. His form hasn't been great lately, but that's been more than factored into this price. Kuchar was second in SG: Tee-to-Green here last year.

The Genesis Invitational: Head-to-Head Matchups

Nicolai Hojgaard (-120) over Keegan Bradley

The 22-year-old has gotten off to a fast start in his rookie season, finishing runner-up at Torrey Pines and leading the field in SG: Off-the-Tee at Pebble Beach. Although he's never played this event, he's going up against Bradley, who doesn't appear fond of this track. He missed the cut in four of his last eight trips to Riviera, with a best finish of T34 during that stretch.

Luke List (-110) over Patrick Rodgers

Although Rodgers has the better short game of the two, I'll lean towards List in this matchup, as he's longer and straighter off the tee while also being the superior iron player. Rodgers has missed two cuts in a row here and finished second to last at Pebble Beach. List was also second in SG: Approach here last year.

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