This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
BMW Championship Betting Preview
We're down to 50 players in the FedExCup Playoffs as the PGA Tour heads to Denver, Colorado, for the BMW Championship at Castle Pines Golf Club. Unlike most tournaments, this event rotates venues and this will be the first time since 2006 the Tour has visited Castle Pines. Scottie Scheffler headlines as the tournament favorite at 3-1 odds for this no-cut event, in which the top-30 players in the FedExCup Standings at the end of the tournament will advance to next week's Tour Championship. Last year, Viktor Hovland (16-1 odds) claimed his fifth Tour victory at Olympia Fields by two shots over Scheffler and Matt Fitzpatrick.
A par-72 at an eye popping 8,130 yards, it's important to note that due to the elevation, Castle Pines will play much shorter – I'm estimating closer to 7,200 yards and similar to an average Tour venue. Off the tee, players are faced with many dogleg holes and fairways are surrounded by thick rough, in addition to penal fairway bunkers and water on about half of the holes. That's going to put a premium on having a combination of length and accuracy with driver. With water also in play near the green on several holes, approach play should be key as well. I'm leaning towards players that have shown form at Augusta and Kapalua as I think there will be similarities between the creativity needed at both of those venues to Castle Pines, as well as the emphasis on ball striking, par-5 scoring and fast greens.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:00 PM ET Wednesday
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Flushers Only
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes off-the-tee and on approach combined over their last 20 rounds.
- Scottie Scheffler 2.03
- Xander Schauffele 1.61
- Tommy Fleetwood 1.60
- Shane Lowry 1.38
- Viktor Hovland 1.14
On these courses where we don't have any data to draw from, eyeing quality ball strikers is usually going to be a good place to start, and I don't think Castle Pines will be any different. Scheffler tops another statistical list once again, although Schauffele is narrowing the gap with an excellent year himself. One thing that has eluded Scheffler is a win in the playoffs, although he's been close at this event the last two years with finishes of T2 and T3. Another player I want to highlight on this list is Lowry, a player that bettors could easily overlook in a field with so many big names. Similar to Matsuyama, Lowry's ball striking has quietly been in really good from but the the putter has let him down. At 65-1 odds, he could be a nice darkhorse if he finds the form on the greens.
BMW Championship Bets: Outright Picks
Collin Morikawa (14-1)
The outright picks have been hot with back-to-back winners on Aaron Rai on Hideki Matsuyama. Can Morikawa make it three in a row? He's had such a strong season with six top-5s to position himself fourth in the FedExCup. His steady all-around game should make him a good course fit.
Tony Finau (25-1)
Finau has had a solid year overall and has been trending in an even better direction since June with three top-10s and five top-20s over his last six starts. He won a playoff event in 2021, so he's no stranger to winning on this stage.
Adam Scott (50-1)
Scott has had a strong finish to the summer, finishing runner-up at the Scottish Open, top-10 at The Open and T18 last week. At 41st in the FedExCup Standings, he'll need to get into contention to advance to East Lake for the second time since 2020.
BMW Championship Bets: Placement Wagers
Eric Cole
Top-10 Finish: 5-1
Cole has momentum on his side after closing with a 63 on Sunday in Memphis en route to his fourth top-20 over his last six starts. After looking lost for a good portion of the year, his iron play and short game have been in great form the last two months.
Brian Harman
Top-5 Finish: 10-1
If accuracy and iron play end up being key factors this week, then it's hard to imagine that we wouldn't find Harman's name near the top of the leaderboard over the weekend. He's recorded a top-5 in a playoff event in each of the last two years.
Sepp Straka
Top-5 Finish: 12-1
Straka's short game has let him down this year, but the ball striking is still in excellent form as he's third in driving accuracy and top-40 in SG: Off-the-tee and approach. He has three top-5s since April – two of which have come in signature events.
BMW Championship Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Sahith Theegala (-110) over Cameron Young
Theegala has done a good job this year of bouncing back from a subpar performance, and he has the advantage over Young with his putter and around the green in addition to driving accuracy. Young is also coming off a disappointing T61 result in which he lost strokes with his ball striking for the first time since early June.
Akshay Bhatia (-115) over Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Bezuidenhout has cooled off a bit recently as you have to go all the way back to the Memorial to find his last PGA Tour top-20. I'll side with the well-rounded Bhatia instead, who has four top-20s during that same stretch. Bhatia is the better driver of the two and has been solid all season, ranking 13th in total strokes gained.
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