Yahoo DFS Football: Week 6 Picks

Yahoo DFS Football: Week 6 Picks

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.

Before jumping headfirst into the whirlwind of fun that is Yahoo Daily Fantasy Football, be sure to differentiate between the variety of games offered. Since Head-to-Heads, 50/50s and Double Ups pay nearly half of entrants, your best bet for cashing is to target players with higher floors. Think heavily targeted No. 1 WRs, RBs who get the bulk of a team's carries and upper echelon QBs in matchups with a tight Vegas point spread and a high total.

Tournaments / Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs) require a bit more of your inner contrarian. Target offensive players with higher ceilings in advantageous matchups. Huge point totals can come from the most unpredictable of places, and the most obvious plays are not always the right ones. Though previous week's performances should be noted, each new week of action should be considered its own season. Don't chase last week's stats.

TOURNAMENTS (GPP – GUARANTEED PRIZE POOL)

Tyrod Taylor (BUF, $29)

The prices for top quarterbacks have shot through the roof, with all of the top tier guys in good matchups (Brees, Newton, Wilson, Roethlisberger) hanging around the $40 mark for Week 6. Colin Kaepernick presents an interesting option at minimum salary, but he is in a tough spot flying cross-country to face a stout Bills defense that has three times as many interceptions (six) as passing touchdowns allowed (two). If you're feeling froggy and like the team you build around Kaepernick, it's worth a shot if you're entering multiple lineups in GPPs. The middle tier offers Marcus Mariota in a decent home spot against the lowly Browns, Dak Prescott in Green Bay against a depleted Packers' secondary and, of course, TyGod himself. Taylor is without his biggest weapon (Sammy Watkins), but should be involved in a high-pace matchup against a Niners' team that is allowing two passing touchdowns per game. Taylor looked sluggish against the Rams last week, connecting on just 12-of-23 pass attempts and an incredibly low 124 passing yards, though he did throw two touchdown passes. He is a pure GPP play because of his boom-or-bust nature and because the team relies heavily on the run game. Taylor is a low floor quarterback with a high ceiling in this matchup, especially if he can connect with vertical threat speedster Marquise Goodwin on a couple of his signature bombs. The Bills are currently favored by 7.5 points. With the assumption that Sunday in New Era Field will be an episode of The LeSean McCoy Show, Taylor will definitely fly under the radar when it comes to ownership share. If you believe that the 49ers can hang with the Bills on Sunday, Taylor is worthy of your tournament consideration at a reasonable price.

Lamar Miller (HOU, $28)

Miller is currently persona non grata in the fantasy community, especially for those who drafted him in the back half of the first round in season-long leagues. He has yet to score a touchdown and ranks outside of the top 20 among running backs, averaging just 10.5 fantasy points per game. His price has dropped to below the $30 mark, and his Week 6 matchup at home against the Colts presents us with the perfect opportunity to pounce. Miller is one of the quickest backs in the league and is much too talented to not break out soon. He has been a workhorse through the first five weeks, receiving nearly 75 percent of the carries, and is one of only four backs (along with Ezekiel Elliott, LeGarrette Blount and Todd Gurley) to have received at least 100 carries. The Colts are middle of the pack in terms of rushing yards allowed per game (109.5) but average one rushing TD allowed per game, and are tied for a fourth-worst 4.9 YPC allowed. Rookie running back Jordan Howard shredded them for 163 all-purpose yards, including a 7.4 YPC on 118 rushing yards. The previous week, middling back T.J. Yeldon posted a 5.1 YPC on just 14 carries in their London showdown. Miller has yet to break a run longer than 15 yards, but had seven runs of 20 or more last season including an 85-yard haul. Though the Colts are also vulnerable via the pass, coach Bill O'Brien will likely dial up a heavy dose of Miller on Sunday. Expect him to cross the 80-yard threshold for the fifth time in six games and to hit paydirt for the first time this season.

Tyler Lockett (SEA, $15)

Lockett is a potential home run flier for GPPs this week in a lovely matchup against a Falcons secondary that is tied with the Lions for most passing touchdowns allowed (14) through five weeks. Lockett will fly way under the radar as he appears to be an afterthought in the Seahawks offense, managing just an 11 percent target share over his first four games. He's had just one fantasy-worthy effort (four receptions, 99 yards in Week 2 against the Rams) while putting up duds in the other three games – a combined 30 yards on four catches. Doug Baldwin is Russell Wilson's go-to guy down the field, but he's the second-priciest wideout this week behind Antonio Brown. Jimmy Graham will earn reasonable ownership levels as well after posting consecutive 100-plus yard outings prior to the Seahawks' bye week. Both are great options. But if you want a piece of this game in a sneaky way, Lockett could be your pick. Since he returns punts, paring him with the Seahawks DST could provide you with the 'double dip' fantasy points-wise, if he takes one to the house. Nobody ever won a big GPP without finding a spot or two in their lineups at which to take calculated risks. Lockett is a risky play, but could pay off huge in Week 6 in what should be a high-scoring affair.

Other Against-the-Grainers

QB: Marcus Mariota (TEN, $28), Colin Kaepernick (DAL, $20)
RB: Ryan Mathews (PHI, $25), Tevin Coleman (ATL, $18), Giovani Bernard (CIN, $18)
WR: Alshon Jeffery (CHI, $30), Rishard Matthews (TEN, $14), Torrey Smith (SF, $13), Chris Conley (KC, $12)
TE: Coby Fleener (NO, $19), Charles Clay (BUF, $12)
DEF: Detroit Lions ($12)

CASH GAMES (H2H, 50/50s and DOUBLE UPS)

Quarterback

Drew Brees (NO, $41)

Brees is priced to his eyeballs this week, but this feels like a week to not get too cute at the quarterback slot in cash games. We're all aware of his home-road splits, but just as a refresher: since the beginning of the 2014 season, Brees is averaging 50 more passing yards and one more touchdown at home than on the road. To be exact, that's 341.5 passing yards and 2.6 touchdowns a game in the friendly confines of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Sunday's Saints-Panthers tilt is expected to be an old fashioned shootout, likely to be slated as the only game with a projected total higher than 50 points in Week 6. The Panthers secondary is just as feeble as expected following the loss of premier cornerback Josh Norman in the offseason, and their 8.4 YPA allowed is the league's fourth-worst mark behind the Bucs (8.6), Raiders (8.8) and Jets (9.2). Cam Newton will garner much-deserved ownership this week given the Saints' woes against passing attacks, but Newton is still recovering from his Week 4 concussion and has been sacked 13 times through four games. It will take the right maneuvering and identifying proper value plays to get Brees into your lineup, but it's a play that should pay off in a game with such an incredibly high ceiling.

Running Backs

LeSean McCoy (BUF, $35)

McCoy is near the top of all relevant rushing categories this season. Fifth in rushing yards (447), tied for second with David Johnson in carries of 20-plus yards (four), and one of 13 backs averaging over 5.0 YPC on the young season. He is the bell cow back on a run-heavy offense and has seen 12 red zone looks in five games, making his way into the box on 33 percent of those (four touchdowns). McCoy is also heavily involved in the passing game. His 15.4 percent target share is one of the highest marks for running backs, and his 19 receptions are the fifth-most among all running backs. McCoy is the fourth-most expensive running back for Week 6, but for good reason. The Bills are 7.5 point favorites, at home, and playing a 49ers team that's been shredded on the ground this season. The Niners' 146.8 rushing yards allowed per game is the second-worst mark behind the Miami Dolphins. Speaking of the Dolphins, it's hard not to just plug and play Le'Veon Bell against them this week, especially after seeing him collect nine receptions in Week 5. But Bell is the priciest back of the week. McCoy is four bucks cheaper and is the clear No. 1 option on a run-oriented offense in a great matchup. We can even fit both in if we make some sacrifices at QB and WR.

Christine Michael (SEA, $24)

Michael's resurgence has been one of the most enlightening stories of the NFL season thus far. With Thomas Rawls nursing an injured leg and expected to be out at least another month, the opportunity for Michael to cement himself as the Lynchian lead dog in the Seahawks' offense is there for the taking. Michael has had at least 15 rushing attempts in three of the team's first four games, with his monster outing (105 yards, two touchdowns) coming against the Niners in a Week 3 blowout. He has not been too heavily involved in the passing game, but has caught at least two balls in every game including a touchdown reception against the Jets two weeks ago. Michael will battle with a Falcons' defense that had three linebackers out against the Broncos last week, but it's a unit that was able to contain C.J. Anderson (41 yards on 11 carries). The Seahawks' projected point total of 26 is one of the highest of Week 6 and game script should flow in favor of the running game given that the Seahawks are currently six point favorites. Best of all, Michael is underpriced at a mere 24 dollars and is the clear option in the tier of mid-priced runners. Michael has seen 15 red zone looks through the first four games and will likely see a few more against the Falcons this Sunday.

Wide Receivers

Allen Robinson (JAX, $32)

Robinson is always in play for cash games, and appears to be a steal of a deal as the eighth-priciest wideout on the Week 6 slate. Robinson has hit double-digit fantasy points in three of his four games this season, but it took him three weeks to finally find paydirt. All three of his touchdowns this season have come over the last two games. He has seen at least 10 targets from Blake Bortles in three of four games and should be his go-to guy once again this Sunday against the Bears. It's worth mentioning that Robinson has yet to clear the 80-yard mark in a game this season. It is one of the reasons his price is depressed, but it provides us with the perfect opportunity to pounce on a market inefficiency. The Bears rank 27th in DVOA to WR1's and let T.Y. Hilton torch them for 171 yards on 10 receptions last week. One of the five best receivers in football, Robinson can only be contained for so long. He's ready to erupt and the Week 6 tilt with the Bears looks like just the spot for that.

Brandin Cooks (NO, $28)

Cooks isn't always the safest cash game play, but he fits in nicely this week paired with his quarterback. As previously mentioned, the Saints are at home in the week's only 50-plus projected total, facing a suspect Panthers' secondary that has allowed the third-most receiving yards per reception (13.3) this season. Cooks is a great GPP play as well given his big-play ability and high ceiling. His big game came in the season opener where he caught six of nine targets for 143 yards and two touchdowns, including a monster 98-yard catch and run. Cooks followed that up with seven targets for 68 yards against a stingy Giants' defense, then had two stinkers against the Falcons and Chargers where he was mostly kept in check by standout CBs Desmond Trufant and Jason Verrett. Fresh off his bye week, expect Cooks to get back on track with his second 100-yard effort of the season and for him to score for the first time since the season opener.

John Brown (ARI, $18)

Brown is healthy and back on track for what should truly be a breakout season. Sure, Brown technically 'broke out' last season with a 1,007-yard, seven-touchdown season, but it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility to expect a better performance this season. Much of this week's reliance on Brown as a cash game play depends upon the health and availability of quarterback Carson Palmer. Brown came along slowly to start the season following a preseason concussion, but has quickly asserted himself as a reliable weapon, leading all receivers with 27 targets over the two-game stretch of Weeks 3 and 4. The doozy came against the Rams two weeks ago where he caught 10 of 16 targets for 144 yards. The one blemish on his season is that he has yet to score a touchdown. That will likely come against the Jets on Monday Night Football. Along with the Raiders, the Jets have been one of the league's worst passing defenses this season, allowing a 9.2 YPA and 2.4 passing touchdowns per game. Brown is heavily underpriced this week – take advantage of the savings while you can because the window is closing.

Tight Ends

Delanie Walker (TEN, $23)

Greg Olsen is the league's best tight end this year. He put up a monster line (nine receptions, 181 yards) against the Bucs on Monday night, ranks fifth in the league in targets (53) and has a dream matchup against the Saints in the highest over/under of Week 6. In relation to the wide receivers in his salary range, Olsen is a steal at just 28 bucks. But with tight ends traditionally priced down as a whole compared to receivers, it behooves us to survey each and every option. Enter a $23 Walker, who looked dominant in the Titans' 30-17 victory over the Dolphins last week. He caught just five of eight targets for 66 yards and a touchdown, but Walker is Marcus Mariota's first read in a run-heavy offense that lacks star power at the receiver spots. Walker's target share is slightly over 18 percent, second on the team behind rookie Tajae Sharpe, but Sharpe has been less of a focal point after seeing 11 targets come his way in his first career game. Walker has an incredible matchup against a Browns team that has been roasted by opposing tight ends, allowing a league-high 43 receptions. If you think that's bad, the Browns have also allowed 501 receiving yards to them. That's over 100 yards more than the next-highest total – the Cowboys at 397 yards allowed. Walker is the epitome of a cash game tight end this week, though with Olsen, Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham and Zach Miller all commanding market share this week, Walker could fly a bit under the radar. The yards will be there, so if you think he gets into the end zone like I do, then he becomes an easy plug-and-play at a reasonable price tag.

Defense/Special Teams

Tennessee Titans ($14)

The easy move would be to plug the Cardinals in at home for a MNF matchup against the pick-happy Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets. But with prices tighter across all positions this week, we need to scour every spot for value in order to fit under the salary cap. The Titans are a reasonably priced option given their matchup at home against the Browns. With third-stringer-turned-starter Cody Kessler not yet recovered from a rib/chest injury, Titans' defenders are salivating for the opportunity to hunt down quarterback Kevin Hogan, who was just signed off the Browns' practice squad this week. The Titans and Seahawks are the only teams who have yet to force a fumble this season, but the Titans are tied for fifth in the league with six interceptions and rank in the top 10 in sacks. As the week goes on, expect others to jump on the Titans DST bandwagon. They make for a good play no matter who is under center for the Browns this week, though we should downgrade the Titans if veteran Josh McCown is healthy and gets the call.

Honorable Mentions

QB: Cam Newton (CAR, $40), Brian Hoyer (CHI, $29)
RB: Le'Veon Bell (PIT, $39), DeMarco Murray (TEN, $36), Cameron Artis-Payne (CAR, $13) – if Jonathan Stewart is out
WR: Kelvin Benjamin (CAR, $32), Jarvis Landry (MIA, $26), Willie Snead (NO, $23), Robert Woods (BUF, $15), Cameron Meredith (CHI, $14)
TE: Greg Olsen (CAR, $28), Jimmy Graham (SEA, $22)
DEF: Arizona Cardinals ($19), Buffalo Bills ($16)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Vlad Sedler plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: rotogutguy, DraftKings: rotogut, Yahoo: V_Sedler.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Vlad Sedler
Vlad Sedler covers baseball and football for RotoWire. He is a veteran NFBC player and CDM Hall of Famer, winning the Football Super Challenge in 2013. A native Angeleno, Vlad loves the Dodgers and Kings and is quite possibly the world's only Packers/Raiders fan. You can follow him @RotoGut.
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