This article is part of our Corner Report series.
This article will go game by game for the Wild-Card Round slate looking at the top wide receivers from an offense and, based on the inside/outside and left/right splits of those receivers, identify the cornerbacks most likely to face them in man coverage. This post will have to be a little shorter and lean more on speculation/generalities than the entries to come, because teams haven't yet conclusively revealed their personnel tendencies.
Receivers rarely see the same corner every play, be it due to formation quirks or zone coverage calls by the defense, so a receiver's fortunes depend on much more than just the quality of the corner they're likely to see the most in a given game. Even against a bad corner, a good receiver can be denied the opportunity if the pass rush or something else outside his control complicates things. But it's part of the puzzle, and it's worth keeping track of.
Receivers are left with an Upgrade, Downgrade, or Even verdict based on their projected matchup. This shouldn't be read as 'good' or 'bad' but rather a measured tweak from the receiver's baseline projection.
Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Chargers
HOUSTON TEXANS WIDE RECEIVERS
Nico Collins is way too much for even most of the league's best cornerbacks, so personnel-wise there's nothing the Chargers can pose as far as difficult 1:1 matchups. The Chargers defense is one of the very best-coached in the league, however, so they'll make a game plan that accounts for this fact and tries to make things difficult for Collins other ways. The top corner for the Chargers has been Kristian Fulton, who has proven an excellent fit indeed and might be expected to follow Collins a bit in this one. Tarheeb Still is one of two rookie fifth-round picks who have played well at corner for the Bolts, the other being Cam Hart, but Still in particular has been impressive to the point that he might arguably be an equal to Fulton. At the very least these Chargers corners are good enough to shut down the non-Collins wideouts on Houston – John Metchie, Robert Woods and Diontae Johnson – but Collins has been so outrageously productive the last two years it's not obvious why this Chargers defense would be the sudden point of regression.
Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: Robert Woods, Diontae Johnson, John Metchie
Even: Nico Collins
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS WIDE RECEIVERS
Quentin Johnston had a great game against the Raiders, and good for him, but his overall numbers in the NFL are still unclear about his chances of proving an average starting wideout. The Raiders boundary corners are among the worst in the league, moreover, and in comparison Kamari Lassiter and especially Derek Stingley might look like world-beaters. The Texans' coverage is weaker the more you test their depth, including in the slot where Jimmie Ward is called a safety for a reason. The Texans decided as a matter of formal policy that their slot defender must be a safety – Ward, Eric Murray and M.J. Stewart are all safeties and all play in the slot at times – but it seems like a bad idea to try to cover Ladd McConkey with a safety. The more the Chargers play two-TE in this game, the more they play to the strengths and weaknesses of the Houston defense. The more they get McConkey running against Ward, the better their chances of winning.
Upgrade: Ladd McConkey
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Quentin Johnston, Joshua Palmer
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
BALTIMORE RAVENS WIDE RECEIVERS
I'd normally worry about overexposure when a player like Rashod Bateman suddenly needs to play a leading role and consequently draw more attention from the defense, but I think in this case there's reason to think the absence of Zay Flowers could instead be more like a subsidy to Bateman, who has been asked to run farther on the boundary and downfield in this Ravens offense so as to not encroach on underneath and intermediate space largely carved out for Flowers specifically. Bateman is arguably a better receiver at underneath and intermediate depths, but the Ravens haven't asked him to do as much there as downfield to pull attention away from Flowers. In a game like this Bateman's ADOT might drop from 13.9 (87th percentile) to something more like 10.0, which should increase Bateman's per-snap target rate. Joey Porter is at once a promising player and one who simply draws too many penalties in the meantime, while Donte Jackson on the other side is just nondescript. It's not an easy matchup for Bateman exactly, but if he's at all the real deal he should be able to make himself useful here. Whether Nelson Agholor can be useful is less clear and less likely, but he might have an angle here by getting most of the slot snaps and therefore getting more looks at Beanie Bishop, who has more speed and motor than he does coverage refinement. Tylan Wallace was an incredibly productive college player and might get his NFL career going at some point, but so far his production from scrimmage just hasn't been there.
Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Rashod Bateman, Nelson Agholor, Tylan Wallace
PITTSBURGH STEELERS WIDE RECEIVERS
The Ravens pass defense finished the year better than it started, which was somewhat predictable given the quality of the personnel at corner. If results are bad for a given sample when your corners are Marlon Humphrey, Nate Wiggins and Brandon Stephens, then you have reason to believe the bad results were due to reasons other than the personnel. Be it some combination of chance, bad luck or just needing time to develop rapport as a group, the Ravens once looked vulnerable but have looked less so as time passes. George Pickens is all the Steelers have and as last week showed, their offense goes in the tank when they can't run and when they can't get Pickens the ball. The Ravens are unlikely to let the Steelers run for much, so the Steelers at once really need to get Pickens the ball but also might not be able to. When the second and third receivers are so much worse than the lead one, defenses can truly sell out at stopping the player like Pickens with impunity. Either Pickens makes the tough catches against double teams, or the ball doesn't go. Now, Pickens is an immense talent in his own right and very much excels at making difficult catches, and Stephens in particular probably can't hang with Pickens in single coverage, but the Ravens would be crazy to leave Pickens in single coverage at almost any point. Calvin Austin is a firecracker who can give the Steelers some big plays, perhaps including in this game, but as last week showed you can't truly count on a player like Austin to show up when you need him to – a solvent offense wouldn't call on a player like Austin to be anything more than an occasional contributor. But Van Jefferson is so ineffective and Mike Williams apparently hasn't gotten up to speed with the playbook enough to give the Steelers any other realistic option.
Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: George Pickens, Calvin Austin, Mike Williams, Van Jefferson
Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos
BUFFALO BILLS WIDE RECEIVERS
The Bills have a very horizontally-oriented wideout rotation and it's difficult to anticipate who will get how much usage in which situations, but it seems completely safe to say that their most capable receivers from scrimmage are Khalil Shakir and Amari Cooper. Cooper's playing time in particular has been so erratic it borders on nonsense, but presumably the Bills might be more eager to utilize him if they weren't moving the ball by other means. Those Other Means can all of a sudden dry up in the playoffs, when real ability and grit are the distinguishing traits between winners and losers. In other words, Cooper might be something like a secret weapon to the Bills at this point, given their robust rushing game and ensemble cast at receiver otherwise, but he still is probably a very dangerous weapon when used. Patrick Surtain might therefore be assigned to Cooper whenever the two are on the field and Denver is in man coverage. Shakir tends to play the slot enough to get away from Surtain's territory anyway, but Ja'Quan McMillian looks like one of the league's better slot corners at the moment. Riley Moss has shown he can't quite hold up against receivers like Tee Higgins, but if Surtain is on Cooper and McMillian is on Shakir then Moss would likely be facing a more manageable matchup most of the time. That's not to say a player like Keon Coleman can't hurt Moss – perhaps there's a Big Wideout trend to observe among Moss' limitations as a corner – but Moss has earned some benefit of the doubt and at the very least should be able to handle players like Mack Hollins and Curtis Samuel.
Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Khalil Shakir, Amari Cooper (arguable Downgrade if shadowed by Surtain), Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins
DENVER BRONCOS WIDE RECEIVERS
Courtland Sutton never needs to get truly open to make a catch, so it's rarely worth fretting about his matchup for coverage reasons. The Bills pass rush and coverage disguises will no doubt try to bring down Bo Nix, but if Sutton fails here it would likely be due to Nix imploding rather than Sutton being covered so well. Similarly, Marvin Mims has shown he's the real deal and his speed is a problem for Bills corners like Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford. They point blank cannot run with Mims for more than 10 yards before he pulls away. Sean McDermott is well aware of these corner limitations and designed his defense to accommodate them, though, and the Bills pass rush is designed to arrive before the receiver in question can get 10+ yards downfield against Benford or Douglas. If Sean Payton can cook up something where Nix has time, though, these corners would be in trouble against those two wideouts and maybe even Devaughn Vele. As the primary slot man of the three Vele might see the most of Taron Johnson – arguably the least desirable matchup among the Bills corners – but Vele has shown by now that he's a solid player in his own right.
Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims, Devaughn Vele
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES WIDE RECEIVERS
A.J. Brown is way too much for corners like these. DeVonta Smith probably is too. Carrington Valentine might be a real find for the Packers and Keisean Nixon might be a viable top-100 corner at another spot, but when you're talking about Brown you need the league's very best coverage just to sort of hold serve against. Valentine seems like the player more capable of transcending between himself and Nixon, but both corners are probably in some trouble against these receivers. If something holds back the fantasy output of Brown or/and Smith it would probably have to do with how many plays the Eagles ran the ball at their expense.
Upgrade: A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith
Downgrade: N/A
Even: N/A
GREEN BAY PACKERS WIDE RECEIVERS
Romeo Doubs is a good boundary receiver but the boundary corners for Philadelphia are built specifically to counter players like Doubs – the builds and athletic traits of the three players are close to the same, so there's a tendency to stalemate when they collide. Quinyon Mitchell and Darius Slay are probably not as easily beaten on the boundary as Cooper DeJean would be in the slot, but DeJean to this point has been very good in the slot. Jayden Reed has disappeared for periods long enough that basically nothing can be guaranteed for him in any given game, but to me it still looks like Reed can beat DeJean more easily than Doubs and especially Dontayvion Wicks can the Mitchell/Slay duo.
Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks
Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS WIDE RECEIVERS
Terry McLaurin can't be covered one on one by corners like Jamel Dean and Zyon McCollum, so the fact that McLaurin struggled when these teams last faced is an outcome that can't be attributed to those corners. Perhaps McLaurin was subjected to some kind of bad luck, but the better explanation probably has to do with the defensive game plan and safety play for Tampa Bay. More specifically, the Buccaneers correctly guessed that it was worth it to keep a safety over the top of McLaurin at all times, discouraging Jayden Daniels from throwing the Go route as a result. Daniels' Go route is as accurate as anyone's, and McLaurin is profoundly dangerous in his own right, so it makes sense that the Buccaneers would again make it their singular priority to keep a safety over the top of McLaurin, neutralizing both him and Daniels in the process given the modest group of secondary pass catchers in Washington. With that said, Olamide Zaccheaus has always produced in the slot and Washington has only gotten good results from him since they moved him there over Luke McCaffrey. Zaccheaus is probably somewhat dangerous to slot linebacker Tykee Smith, whose abilities have more to do with run defense and perhaps tight end coverage than they do with covering wide receivers. Dyami Brown has no obvious angle on Dean or McCollum, who have the length and speed to neutralize Brown's one move (the go route). If the Buccaneers contain McLaurin and the Commanders don't counter by hurting them with Zaccheaus from the slot then I think the Washington passing game might have a bit of a problem given the absence of other candidates to fill a given void.
Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Terry McLaurin, Olamide Zaccheaus, Dyami Brown
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS WIDE RECEIVERS
Mike Evans versus Marshon Lattimore could pose a major complication for the Buccaneers, who have generally witnessed the worst games of Evans' career occur against Lattimore specifically. Lattimore isn't the best corner in the league or anything, but he really might be the best corner in the league against Evans. Evans wouldn't lose forever against any corner, but with Lattimore there's the possibility the Buccaneers need to go multiple drives finding new ways to get first downs. The run game should be there to pick up that slack, and even aside from that Jalen McMillan has shown he can do some productive things, but even McMillan has a tough matchup against Mike Sainristil, who has quietly been good as a rookie. Slot corner Noah Igbinoghene at once probably is not good but also probably is not threatened by Sterling Shepard at this point.
Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Mike Evans (arguable Downgrade if shadowed by Lattimore), Jalen McMillan, Sterling Shepard
Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Rams
MINNESOTA VIKINGS WIDE RECEIVERS
It's not clear how the Rams mean to handle all of their corner snaps in this, because after opening the season as the primary boundary duo Cobie Durant and Darious Williams have both seen their boundary snaps lag at times to go to Ahkello Witherspoon instead, and none of the three has played in the slot much this year. Durant has played it the most of the three, but safety Quentin Lake has been the primary slot corner all year. The Rams could choose to move Durant into the slot and bench Lake, which is what I'd do, but the Rams apparently value having a safety specifically in the slot. If Lake keeps playing then the Rams will apparently run out a constantly fluctuating boundary rotation of Durant, Williams and Witherspoon, perhaps somewhat on the basis of matchup given that Durant/Williams are small and Witherspoon is a big corner. Justin Jefferson is not a big receiver but he's a lot bigger than Jordan Addison, so it's possible that one of Durant or Willliams gets their playing time reduced so that Witherspoon can match up against Jefferson. To be clear, none of these are good options for the Rams, who are trying to get by with a Moneyball approach on defense. Jefferson has a major advantage against any Rams corner, while in Addison's case he has no obvious angle but is a self-evidently good enough player to pose a threat to any corner type. If I had to guess, putting Lake or Witherspoon on Jefferson is just asking for problems, even if there are problems with whatever approach the Rams take.
Upgrade: Justin Jefferson
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Jordan Addison, Jalen Nailor
LOS ANGELES RAMS WIDE RECEIVERS
Puka Nacua at once has no clear angle on the Vikings corners, yet also has a skill set and application in the Rams offense that reduces the significance of the matchup in any given week. If Matthew Stafford has time to throw, Sean McVay has shown the ability to constantly cook up novel looks for Nacua where, even if nothing is open downfield, YAC opportunities are created with consistently great blocking around him. Stephon Gilmore especially is more easily beaten downfield and thrives in the depths where Nacua normally runs his routes, but Nacua's application is almost always resolute because he doesn't need separation to create yardage. This might be the one case where the Vikings would be better off with Gilmore running against the WR1 rather than general CB1 Byron Murphy, if only because Murphy is a little less rugged than Gilmore. Cooper Kupp has an interesting but unclear matchup while running more often from the slot. Josh Metellus is a former safety who wasn't even particularly good by safety coverage standards, so to me it makes sense that Kupp should be able to beat Metellus. If the Vikings keep Metellus in the slot instead of moving Murphy there, there's a chance Kupp produces by virtue of the easy Metellus matchup, and as previously mentioned Nacua is likely to produce regardless of Minnesota's approach. Demarcus Robinson plainly is not good but if the Rams keep his snap count high he could, like any other week, end up benefiting from being in the right place at the right time. He will never dictate anything, though.
Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp (the more Metellus the better), Demarcus Robinson
