Wide Receivers vs. Cornerbacks: Divisional Round Matchups

This article will go game by game for the Divisional Round slate looking at the top wide receivers from an offense and, based on the inside/outside and left/right splits of those receivers, identify the cornerbacks most likely to face them in man coverage.

Receivers rarely see the same corner every play, be it due to formation quirks or zone coverage calls by the defense, so a receiver's fortunes depend on much more than just the quality of the corner they're likely to see the most in a given game. Even against a bad corner, a good receiver can be denied the opportunity if the pass rush or something else outside his control complicates things. But it's part of the puzzle, and it's worth keeping track of.

Receivers are left with an Upgrade, Downgrade, or Even verdict based on their projected matchup. This shouldn't be read as 'good' or 'bad' but rather a measured tweak from the receiver's baseline projection.
 

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS WIDE RECEIVERS

Guessing the Kansas City wideout rotation is difficult at the moment because the team used an ensemble approach in general this year and that was before DeAndre Hopkins and more recently Marquise Brown were added to the equation. Hopkins and Brown would both normally dictate three-down roles in any other offense and the Chiefs could very well yet hope to get them both up to that sort of speed for this game – perhaps their limited playing time has something to do with how recently they joined the team as in-season acquisitions – but Xavier Worthy seems locked into a nearly three-down role already and the Chiefs tend to cut out snaps reserved for the likes of Justin Watson and JuJu Smith-Schuster too, for some reason. The Texans defense is good enough that the Chiefs could needlessly get themselves in hot water if they set aside too many snaps for guys like Watson and Smith-Schuster, but if the Chiefs give Brown and Hopkins a true starter's workload then those two and Worthy should pose a substantial amount of firepower to any defense, Houston's included.

Derek Stingley is already one of the league's better corners and Kamari Lassiter has a strong skill set on the other side, but Lassiter is slowish and Stingley isn't a burner himself, so speed like Brown and Worthy could pose a danger to either of them if Patrick Mahomes can evade the Houston pass rush long enough (admittedly easier said than done). Hopkins doesn't need separation to make plays and he's generally a player to expect in big-play situations, but with that said he will likely need to get any production he can here with Stingley or Lassiter pretty much right on him. The slot is somewhere the Chiefs might specifically attack since the Texans' corner depth is poor and they've recently given their slot snaps to Myles Bryant, who's been one of the most picked on corners for years. Brown is probably the one more likely to see a given slot rep between himself, Hopkins and Worthy, though the Chiefs of course also cut out an unusual number of slot reps for Travis Kelce, so even Brown would only be in the slot on a part-time basis.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Hollywood Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Xavier Worthy

HOUSTON TEXANS WIDE RECEIVERS

Trent McDuffie is definitely tougher for Nico Collins to beat than most corners, and McDuffie might be one of the best, but he's still shorter than Collins and with much less reach, while Collins matches or exceeds in any athletic metric. Jaylen Watson is actually more of a trait match to Collins than McDuffie, and Watson seems solid enough on the boundary that the Chiefs might even let him line up against Collins some number of times, but generally McDuffie is the one they send for critical missions and Collins is clearly the main (only?) threat among Houston's from-scrimmage threats. Any non-Collins wideout is probably at a disadvantage against Watson, because players like Robert Woods and Xavier Hutchinson just don't appear capable of threatening from the boundary all that much. In the slot John Metchie is somewhat interesting, both because there should be slack for him to claim in the Houston passing game and because slot rover Chamarri Conner is very clearly the most fallible between himself, McDuffie and Watson. If Watson cannot yet return from his leg injury then the more beatable Nazeeh Johnson and/or Joshua Williams would get those boundary snaps.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Nico Collins (the less McDuffie the better), John Metchie, Robert Woods, Xavier Hutchinson

Detroit Lions vs. Washington Commanders

DETROIT LIONS WIDE RECEIVERS

Amon-Ra St. Brown could have a big day unless Washington sets aside a considerable amount of assistance for slot corner Noah Igbinoghene. Igbinoghene has done better this season than in his previous ones, so perhaps he just needed development time and a position switch to the slot, but there's more so reason to believe he can't do a whole lot against St. Brown. When St. Brown lines up outside he and Jameson Williams will have to work against the formidable duo of Marshon Lattimore and Mike Sainristil. Lattimore is the one with the more conventional boundary build and therefore might see a little more of Williams than Sainristil, especially since Sainristil might also be a step slower (4.47 40) than Lattimore (4.36 40 in 2017). Williams' speed is a danger to either corner, while St. Brown's fundamentals are good enough to make him dangerous to any corner.

With the Detroit run game presumably producing well it's not clear how much Washington can do against the sum threat of the Detroit offense. What Washington prioritizes could determine where the specific opportunities occur. If Washington focuses on the ground game and St. Brown, for instance, then they run a risk of leaving too little help against Williams and might leave one of their corners in a difficult spot. If Washington gives due respect to Williams then it might not be so easy to have leftover resources for both the run and the St. Brown + tight end threats. Tim Patrick is a candidate to appear if all of St. Brown, Williams and the tight ends are somehow covered, though Patrick only has two catches in his last three games and can't be expected to beat corners like Lattimore/Sainristil regularly.

Upgrade: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Jameson Williams, Tim Patrick

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS WIDE RECEIVERS

Very few defenses do, but the Lions plainly do not have the cornerback personnel to cover Terry McLaurin in any conventional sense. As their regular season finale against Minnesota showed, though, defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn can cook up novel game plans that catch offenses off guard and throw the offense off the rails long enough to get an advantage before the offense can adjust. With McLaurin such a singular threat there's more encouragement yet for Detroit to sell out to any extent necessary to contain McLaurin. McLaurin sometimes breaks loose and does big damage even while defenses try to sell out against him, so it's easier said than done for Detroit, but leaving McLaurin in conventional coverage situations against guys like Terrion Arnold and Amik Robertson is basically an alley-oop to the quarterback. Dyami Brown emerged in the Wild-Card round against Tampa Bay and Olamide Zaccheaus gave Washington an upgrade in the slot to close out the regular season, so if those two could maintain their momentum here it would do a lot to deter the Lions from completely, shamelessly selling out against McLaurin alone. Brian Branch in the slot is probably a challenge for Zaccheaus in the case, however, and Brown is no guarantee to put heat on Arnold/Robertson, even if those two are clearly overmatched against McLaurin.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Terry McLaurin (corners can't cover him but additional measures should be expected), Dyami Brown, Olamide Zaccheaus (arguable Downgrade if Branch remains in slot)

Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles

LOS ANGELES RAMS WIDE RECEIVERS

Puka Nacua is clearly the WR1 over Cooper Kupp at this point, and if one needs to get the short end of the stick it seems like it will be Kupp who gets it more often than not. All three of the corner reps are tough between Quinyon Mitchell (boundary), Darius Slay (boundary) and Cooper DeJean (slot), so there isn't really any way to scheme someone open by manipulating matchups. Kupp might see the most of DeJean while Nacua sees the most of the Mitchell/Slay duo, though both Rams wideouts should see all of the corners at various points. I'm not really sure what to add otherwise – the matchup appears tough no matter how the Rams approach it – and it's easier to stand by Nacua than Kupp when the margins get pressed. Demarcus Robinson as always is pretty much a scare crow, but maybe some defender will abandon their post in the confusion.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Demarcus Robinson

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES WIDE RECEIVERS

A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are both too much for corners like Cobie Durant and Darious Williams, but something is off either with Jalen Hurts or with the connection between Hurts and the previously mentioned wideout duo. The Green Bay corners couldn't cover Brown and Smith, either, yet Hurts was basically a mess in that game anyway. Brown especially is a nuclear threat to short, light cornerbacks like these.

Upgrade: A.J. Brown
Downgrade: N/A
Even: DeVonta Smith

Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens

BUFFALO BILLS WIDE RECEIVERS

Amari Cooper is just too good at getting open for the Bills to keep doing the thing where they yank his playing time for Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel and especially Mack Hollins. Assuming the Ravens offense shows up on the other side, the Bills should probably assume that they'll need the whole clip to shoot it out with Baltimore, and Cooper produces targets and yardage that the others can't. Khalil Shakir might be the WR1 in Buffalo anyway, yet as the primary slot receiver Shakir could draw the toughest corner assignment in Marlon Humphrey. If Shakir's customary returns lag at all then that slack would be much better left with Cooper than the other remaining wideouts. Cooper would be particularly threatening to Brandon Stephens, who at once isn't bad but is clearly worse than Humphrey and Nate Wiggins. If the Ravens don't assign Wiggins or Humphrey to Cooper then the Bills should attack Stephens with Cooper, in my opinion. They are free to keep giving a bewildering number of snaps to Hollins, however, and Hollins would not project for an advantage over Stephens or any other corner. Coleman might be Buffalo's best means of challenging Wiggins, who's very good but also perilously skinny. It's worth keeping in mind that the cold could have an effect on the receivers, even if Josh Allen's throwing velocity is unaffected.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Khalil Shakir, Amari Cooper (arguable Upgrade if he plays 40-plus snaps), Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins, Curtis Samuel

BALTIMORE RAVENS WIDE RECEIVERS

Rashod Bateman might be a little underrated as an underneath and intermediate receiver – functions rarely set aside for him whenever Zay Flowers was present – but corners like Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford might be challenging to a player like Bateman, because he can't access the downfield depths that expose the lack of speed with Douglas and Benford. Meanwhile, Bateman is a rather skinny wideout who is unlikely to hold up especially well against the physicality of Douglas and Benford, both of whom are bigger than some safeties. Bateman can be nimble-footed and precise as a route runner, however, so it might be the kind of matchup where the two sides trade jabs with no clear advantage, but Bateman basically can't let those two get their hands on him. It's hard to have much faith in Nelson Agholor as he presumably sees the most of Taron Johnson, though Baltimore's two-TE inclinations might leave Johnson more often matched up against either Mark Andrews or/and Isaiah Likely. Tylan Wallace might play more snaps than Agholor, especially if the open snaps are primarily on the boundary, but Wallace versus Douglas and Benford is a lot like running the Bateman scenario, just with worse projections in every regard. It's also worth remembering that Baltimore is probably more likely to scale back their passing game in these cold conditions than Buffalo, because Lamar Jackson doesn't really have the weather-proof throwing power Josh Allen does.

Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: Nelson Agholor
Even: Rashod Bateman, Tylan Wallace