This article is part of our DFS NFL series.
We've enjoyed some competitive and compelling matchups on Thursday nights this season. Unfortunately, the Week 10 edition likely won't add to the list. The Bears play host to the Panthers with a game total of 38.5 and Chicago as three-point favorites. That leaves the Bears with a 20.75 implied total and the Panthers 17.75. Without further ado, let's jump in.
Quarterback
Justin Fields (thumb) ($11,400 DraftKings/$17,000 FanDuel) is doubtful to play, but it's worth briefly talking about him in case there's a sudden change in course. He started slowly the season and then suffered a thumb injury just as he was returning to form, posting 28.9 and 32.98 points in Weeks 4 and 5, respectively. If the Bears put him on the field, he'll presumably be at full strength, and a thumb injury won't impact his ability to run. In a game where there are few guaranteed places for points, Fields hypothetically would be a strong play.
If Fields is out, Tyson Bagent ($9,200 DK/$16,000 FD) will start his fourth consecutive game. While he's earned respect around the league because he jumped straight from Division II college football to the NFL, his results haven't been strong. He has a 3/6 TD/INT and averages 5.7 yards per attempt. His rushing is worth noting, as he's found the end zone on the ground twice in his four games and reached 70 rushing yards in Week 9. He's also lost two fumbles and topped 13 fantasy points just once. Despite perception, the Panthers have allowed only two quarterbacks to top 20 fantasy points this season (Jared Goff, Tua Tagovailoa). I wouldn't bet on Bagent being the third.
Bryce Young ($9,800 DK/$14,500 FD) has topped 14.5 points in only three of seven games. He's topped 20 points just once. He appeared to take a step forward in Week 8 when he passed for 235 yards and a touchdown while averaging 7.6 yards per attempt. However, he threw three picks and averaged 4.4 yards per attempt in Week 9 against the Colts. The Bears defense is vulnerable, allowing five quarterbacks to top 22.2 fantasy points. The addition of Montez Sweat could help the pass rush, but it's still a positive matchup. Young doesn't look likely to take advantage, but I'd prefer him over Bagent.
Running Back
This is a position with a lot of questions for both teams. Khalil Herbert ($4,200 DK/$10,000 FD) is not likely to return from an ankle injury, but his depressed price on DK makes his status worth monitoring. Assuming Herbert is out, D'Onta Foreman ($8,600 DK, $11,500 FD) has tallied at least 15 carries in three of four games. His outlook is propped up by a three-touchdown performance in Week 7. Otherwise, he's had empty carries.
Behind Foreman, Roschon Johnson ($3,600 DK/$7,000 FD) and Darrynton Evans ($1,800 DK, $6,500) have split limited carries. In a limited Bears' offense, the depth options are better left alone. The Panthers are a great matchup, so perhaps Foreman can get back on track.
Chuba Hubbard ($8,000 DK, $12,500 FD) and Miles Sanders ($5,200 DK, $9,500 FD) are the options in the Carolina backfield. Hubbard has maintained the lead back role even with the return of Sanders, tallying 31 carries for 86 yards. He also has six catches, which does add to his fantasy appeal. However, if he doesn't improve his efficiency he could lose ground to Sanders in terms of workload. Sanders hasn't been particularly effective this season, but if I roster one back from Carolina, it will be Sanders in the hope of the distribution of touches changing. I'm not eager to play either due to the unclear workload split, and because Chicago has been a fairly stout run defense the last several weeks.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Bagent has made things difficult for Chicago's pass catchers. In the last four weeks, DJ Moore ($10,600 DK/$13,000 FD) has failed to top 55 yards, totaling 20 receptions for 204 yards. Even with Fields in the mix, he was a boom-or-bust option, as he topped 100 yards on three occasions (200 once) and he was held to less than 50 in his other two full games. With Bagent under center, it's hard to make the case for Moore. In the same four-game span as listed above for Moore, Darnell Mooney ($7,400 DK, $10,000) has had 12 receptions for 203 yards. The price isn't comparable, so hard as it is to say, Mooney is the point-per-dollar value.
Cole Kmet ($6,600 DK, $10,500 FD) has become Bagent's favorite target, racking up 41.4 DK points his last two weeks. He's backed that production with 18 targets and 16 receptions. That's no guarantee he'll be productive Thursday, but it is clear he's gained rapport with Bagent.
The Panthers are a tough matchup for pass catchers on paper, but that wouldn't make me shy away. I'd be more concerned about the quarterback play.
Speaking of Carolina, Adam Thielen ($11,800 DK/$15,000 FD) is the only reliable Carolina pass catcher. His production has had a downturn in the last two weeks, but there are few players to pay up for in this game, making him a good option. He'll be very chalky. With DJ Chark likely out, and Laviska Shenault out, Jonathan Mingo ($2,800 DK, $7,500 FD) is an intriguing option, though he's admittedly topped 50 receiving yards only once.
Hayden Hurst ($4,800 DK/$8,000 FD) had a solid 12.6 FD points in Week 1 (15.1 on DK) but has since topped five points once. Tommy Tremble ($2,400 DK/$6,000 FD) has two touchdowns in five games, but he has to get in the end zone to be at all viable.
The Bears are a middle-of-the-road matchup, but quarterback play is once again a concern.
Overall, I'd be interested in rostering Mooney, Kmet and Thielen. Mingo and Tremble are options I'd be willing to roster.
Kicker
Cairo Santos ($5,000 DK/$9,000 FD) is the higher-priced kicker, likely because the Bears are the favorite. He's averaged 6.9 fantasy point per game, but given the number of alternative value options, I'd look elsewhere. Eddy Pineiro ($4,400 DK, $8,500 FD) has averaged 8.1 fantasy points per game, and the Bears allow the ninth-most fantasy points per game to kickers. Of the two, I'd prefer Pineiro.
Defense/Special Teams
Both teams have struggled to protect the quarterback, or the quarterback has been unable to avoid sacks. Bears signal-callers have been sacked an average of 3.3 times per game while the Panthers are at 3.6 per game. Neither team has had a pass rush (Carolina 23rd in sacks per game, Chicago 32nd), so that takes some if the intrigue away. On the other hand, the Bears lead the league in turnovers (18). That would point to Carolina ($4,000 DK/ $8,500 FD) if I were to play a defense, and that could be a decent play that goes underused.
