Thursday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Tennessee vs. Dallas

This Thursday night matchup is a weird one, because Tennessee is all but tanking this week in order to get itself as healthy as possible for their division-determining Week 18 matchup against Jacksonville. The Titans will hold out all of Derick Henry (hip), Ryan Tannehill (ankle), Jeffery Simmons (ankle), Amani Hooker (knee), Kristian Fulton (groin), Bud Dupree (pectoral), Zach Cunningham (elbow), Denico Autry (biceps) and others. Dallas, meanwhile, absolutely wants to win this game to keep the heat on Philadelphia for the division lead. Rookie Malik Willis has badly struggled in Tannehill's place to this point, so the spread has jumped from DAL -8.5 to DAL -12.5 while the over/under dropped from 44.5 to 39.5. The game is in Tennessee, for what it's worth, and there are no weather concerns.

QUARTERBACKS

Dak Prescott ($10600 DK, $17500 FD) is tough to fade in this one, if only because there are so few worthwhile high-dollar considerations with Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill out on the other side, and potentially Tony Pollard on Prescott's side. Even if he throws as few as 25 pass attempts, Prescott could easily score three or more times with Tennessee fielding almost an entire roster of backups. Just the same, it would be a surprise and a bad sign for Dallas if they need Prescott to hit the 35-attempt mark.

It's early and Malik Willis ($8600 DK, $14000 FD) can still get on track, but the rookie third-round pick has been a disaster so far to the point that it has quickly lessened his shine as a prospect. The Titans need to find a way to tap more into his running ability, because it seems like Willis just isn't there as a passer at this point – a concerning sign given that he'll be 24 in May. But Willis is still a rare rushing threat, and particularly with Henry out the Titans should consider making Willis their main ballcarrier here. If the Titans do that then Willis could be a necessary cashing pick even if he continues to crash and burn as a passer. Update: Joshua Dobbs ($6000 DK, $50000 FD) will actually start for Tennessee, and at a QB3 price tag moreover. It's difficult to fade Dobbs at that price.

RUNNING BACKS

If Tony Pollard ($9200 DK, $13500 FD) can't play through his thigh injury then it would seem to require a substantial workload for Malik Davis ($200 DK, $5500 FD) even if Ezekiel Elliott ($8800 DK, $13000 FD) takes up a proper starter's workload too. Davis might be a chalky pick if Pollard is out, but he also might be a necessary one as a capable per-snap producer who could see upwards of 30 snaps against a preseason defense. The Dallas backfield should be quite busy and productive in this one regardless of the specific workload splits.

Hassan Haskins ($3000 DK, $60000 FD) is also going to be an understandably chalky pick with Henry out. Haskins is loosely expected to start, yet he's priced like a backup. The question is whether Haskins warrants that chalk in what has thus far been a memorably unproductive offense under Willis, and in a game where Tennessee's injury list all but concedes it as a forfeit. Fellow rookie back Julius Chestnut ($1400 DK, $5500 FD) could be a good pivot for those skeptical of Haskins, because Chestnut has played 15 snaps over the last four weeks – not that far off Haskins' 27 snaps in the same span. Chestnut has also been Tennesssee's primary kick returner, so he's doing more than just blocking and gunning. 

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

CeeDee Lamb ($11400 DK, $15000 FD) might not need to play long for Dallas to tie this one up, but then again, Lamb can also do a lot of damage in a short amount of time. The Titans are down two starting corners and nearly their entire front seven, meaning Prescott will have all day to throw however many times Dallas cares to. It's a tough question for the slate – fading Lamb would prove costly if he has his customary usage, but Dallas might hide their cards somewhat with the Titans doing the same. A down game from Lamb wouldn't guarantee an according benefit to Michael Gallup ($7000 DK, $9000 FD), Noah Brown ($5200 DK, $7000 FD), or Dalton Schultz ($6600 DK, $8500 FD), but all three route runners are regularly involved with the offense and should/could see higher per-usage efficiency than usual in such a favorable matchup. The exact effect of T.Y. Hilton ($4400 DK, $6500 FD) on the Dallas offense remains undetermined, but he certainly made a big impact in his first appearance by drawing a penalty and converting his only target for a 51-yard gain against Philadelphia on 11 snaps. KaVontae Turpin ($200 DK, $5500 FD) probably isn't a candidate to play double-digit snaps, but he sure looks like he's going to score on a return one of these days. He remains an interesting tournament pairing with the Dallas DST despite the lack of points so far.

Treylon Burks ($5400 DK, $11000 FD) and Robert Woods ($5000 DK, $8000 FD) might have some ability but they're in a tough spot with Willis struggling so badly. Even if the Dallas defense runs the most vanilla playbook possible, the Titans could fail in a way that's difficult to watch. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($4600 DK, $7000 FD) should also play often, but he has generally needed flea flickers to produce this year. The most interesting Tennessee pass catcher at the moment might be the rookie Chigoziem Okonkwo ($4800 DK, $7500 FD), but even he isn't immune to the Willis effect and he's still splitting snaps with Austin Hooper and Geoff Swaim ($1000 DK, $5500 FD). 

KICKERS

It's difficult to like Randy Bullock ($4000 DK, $8500 FD), who has never had range even at his best and now has no opportunity of any sort in a Tennessee offense that just can't move the ball. Brett Maher ($4200 DK, $9500 FD), on the other hand, has well-demonstrated range and could see a healthy level of opportunity in a game where Dallas might hold the ball a long time, in favorable field position, and with no urgency to score touchdowns specifically. The Titans are on shutout watch, so if the Dallas offense stalls in the red zone they can still easily win and cover with Maher kicking multiple field goals. Maher has double-digit fantasy points in three straight games and has even gone over the 20-point mark in one game this year.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Cowboys ($5800 DK, $10000 FD) defense rarely needs its case made for it, and this matchup might be its highest projection yet. It's downright tough to avoid the Cowboys defense on this slate as it takes on a Titans offense headlined by Malik Willis and... Julius Chestnut? Hassan Haskins? If Dallas gets fewer than four sacks in this game it would probably be because the Titans attempted fewer than 20 passes. The Titans ($3200 DK, $9000 FD) defense, meanwhile, has no obvious justification.