Thursday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Cincinnati vs. Miami

Through three weeks the Bengals (1-2) and the Dolphins (3-0) have basically swapped pre-season expectations, with the Bengals' talented receivers undone by sketchy quarterback and offensive line play while the Dolphins saw their own two star receivers propelled to elite, game-winning production with their emerging top-five pick quarterback prospect tapping into a gear not shown since his dominant collegiate days. The Bengals look like the team in need of more rebuilding even though they were just in the Super Bowl, while the Dolphins look like a real playoff team, hindered by neither poor passing nor blocking. We'll see if this surprise script stays on track Thursday, when the Dolphins take on the Bengals (-3.5) in Cincinnati. The line opened at Cincinnati -1, and the over/under has dropped from 48.5 to 47.5.

QUARTERBACKS

Tua Tagovailoa ($9400 DK, $15000 FD) is understandably one of the most talked about players in the league following his six-touchdown showing in Week 2, a storyline that was kept salient by the injury drama around Tagovailoa in Week 3. He's expected to play through the back injury, but it's not clear how close he might be to full health, nor is it known what the limitations might be if he's not fully healthy. If Tagovailoa misses any further time then Teddy Bridgewater ($8400 DK, $10000 FD) is the replacement. The Bengals have yet to be tested by a real passing game, so it's tough to tell how difficult this matchup might be for the Miami passing game. It can't be any tougher than the Bills defense that Miami saw in Week 3, then again it might not be far behind either.

Joe Burrow ($9600 DK, $15500 FD) played better in Week 3 but still has work to do. The Jets pass defense was vulnerable to the Bengals receivers, and a lot of his 275 yards were just after the catch on the part of Tyler Boyd. Burrow managed to struggle for periods of the game despite finishing it with a clean-looking box score (275 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions). The Dolphins secondary is somewhat limited with Byron Jones still out at corner and Xavien Howard managing a groin injury, so even in a Thursday matchup Burrow doesn't have a great excuse for failing in this spot. With that said, the Bengals issues are what they are and they won't go away unless Cincinnati actively fixes them.

RUNNING BACKS

Chase Edmonds ($6200 DK, $10500 FD) was expected to lead the Dolphins backfield this year but so far Raheem Mostert ($4400 DK, $8000 FD) has mostly kept pace, playing 86 snaps to Edmonds' 88. Not just that, but Mostert has one more carry than Edmonds and just two fewer targets. It's not clear how their workload might split up in the future, but there's reason to believe Edmonds will eventually outpace Mostert as a pass catcher, though Mostert might maintain his slight lead as the pure runner. The big play hasn't been there yet for him, but Mostert has the speed to strike from long range even if his carry volume is modest. Particularly if Tagovailoa's range is limited or if Jaylen Waddle (groin) isn't himself, the Dolphins might need to get Edmonds going more as a pass catcher in this game. Although just a fullback, Alec Ingold ($1200 DK, $5500 FD) is a candidate to play 20 or so snaps.

Joe Mixon ($9000 DK, $12000 FD) almost has to get going soon, and why not here? Thursday games tend to be hard on passing production, so if there's slack from the air it would be an opportune time for Mixon to step up. Although he's been sluggish from scrimmage so far, Mixon's target volume is encouraging (20 on 166 snaps). Samaje Perine ($7400 DK, $9000 FD) has proven himself a capable backup by now and looms as a threat to poach production that Mixon might otherwise claim. 

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

Ja'Marr Chase ($11000 DK, $13500 FD) had a rough showing against the Jets in Week 3, but the usage is almost always there and eventually the pendulum will swing in his favor, often to explosive extents. A big game from Chase would not at all preclude big numbers for Tee Higgins ($8200 DK, $11500 FD), and though not easily afforded it can certainly pay off to have Burrow, Chase and Higgins in the same lineup. The foil to Chase in Week 3 was in part the production of Tyler Boyd ($7000 DK, $10000 FD), who is at once overqualified as Cincinnati's WR3 and capable of production but also has to scrape and claw for his usage in most cases. Trent Taylor ($200 DK, $5500 FD) rarely plays much on offense but should be the Cincinnati punt returner, making him a pairing consideration for those looking to save money while also picking the Bengals DST. Hayden Hurst ($5400 DK, $7000 FD) might be healthier than last week, when he played only 26 snaps due to a groin injury, while Mitchell Wilcox ($600 DK, $5000 FD) played 37 and Devin Asiasi ($200 DK, $5000 FD) played 24. None of the three profile as featured pass catchers, but Hurst does have 17 unproductive targets through 149 snaps.

Who knows what kind of shape Tagovailoa might be in, but if he's not himself it could slightly bring down the otherwise intimidating Dolphins passing game. Tyreek Hill ($10800 DK, $14000 FD) is due for a big game after a quiet Week 3, especially since fellow star wideout Jaylen Waddle ($10200 DK, $13500 FD) listed as questionable with a groin injury. If Waddle plays then the situation with him and Hill is the same as with Higgins and Chase on the other side – a big game from one does not preclude a big game for the other. Ced Wilson ($1800 DK, $6000 FD) may or may not be able to contribute as the WR3 – in Week 3 he mostly couldn't play through his ribs injury. If Wilson is still down then Trent Sherfield ($1400 DK, $6500 FD) will have to log the WR3 snaps behind Hill and Waddle. Mike Gesicki ($5000 DK, $7500 FD) is the standout pass catcher at tight end in this game, but his playing time trends downward the more the Dolphins run the ball. Blocker Durham Smythe ($2800 DK, $6000 FD) played 30 snaps to Gesicki's 14 in Week 3, though in the Week 2 shootout with Baltimore Gesicki played 42 snaps to Smythe's 34. If Gesicki gets the snaps there's reason to believe he will produce, and the Dolphins don't have a capable third pass catcher at the moment with Wilson beat up. Gesicki is sometimes a bust, but the booms eventually happen too.

KICKERS

Thursday games sometimes encourage stalled offenses and if the Bengals offense stalls in scoring range Evan McPherson ($3600 DK, $9500 FD) can pile up points in a hurry. He doesn't have a double-digit fantasy output through three games but had 10 in a 14-game span last year. Jason Sanders ($3800 DK, $9500 FD) has also seen a slow start through three weeks, but he's probably one of the NFL's better kickers and has plenty of range. Particularly if the Miami running game doesn't improve, Sanders should eventually need to make some field goals for the Dolphins. 

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Both of these teams have questionable offensive lines, but the Bengals have really been bad, which has been compounded by Burrow managing the pocket in a generally poor manner. It seems like Burrow should figure out his own issues eventually, but it's puzzling and concerning that the offensive line has looked so awful when it was supposed to be better. While the Dolphins ($4000 DK, $9000 FD) aren't an intimidating defense, they have a few playmakers who can cause trouble if Burrow and the Bengals play sloppy. The Bengals ($3200 DK, $8500 FD) have an opportunity of their own against a Dolphins offense managing several injuries, including a back injury to Tagovailoa and a toe injury that has kept left tackle Terron Armstead out of practice the last two weeks. Bad as the Cincinnati offense has been, the defense has quietly been quite good through three weeks, though against a weak schedule for the most part.