This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week's Colts fade was for naught, but at least I picked the right team to pivot to in the Patriots. The Chargers, Cardinals and Eagles knocked out 26 percent of pools collectively.
Let's take a look at this week's games:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAMS | Giants | 54.70% | 675 | 87.10 | 7.06 |
| Ravens | FOOTBALL TEAM | 23.40% | 750 | 88.24 | 2.75 |
| Seahawks | DOLPHINS | 5.20% | 275 | 73.33 | 1.39 |
| BUCCANEERS | Chargers | 5.10% | 300 | 75.00 | 1.28 |
| PACKERS | Falcons | 3.30% | 310 | 75.61 | 0.80 |
| 49ERS | Eagles | 2.00% | 290 | 74.36 | 0.51 |
| COWBOYS | Browns | 1.90% | 205 | 67.21 | 0.62 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The first two massive favorites of the year are the Rams and Ravens, and while the Rams are at home, look at the massive number of people on them, presumably intending to save Baltimore for later. You should almost never save teams for reasons I've gone into here.
My Picks
1. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are traveling off a short week, but it's a quick drive from Baltimore to D.C., and I expect them to bounce back against the Football Team. Dwayne Haskins isn't good, and Chase Young is out for the game too. I give the Ravens an 87 percent chance to win this game.
2. Los Angeles Rams
They're home against a weak Giants team, so ordinarily this would be a great play, but they're also 55 percent owned, so they're an easy fade with the Ravens
Last week's Colts fade was for naught, but at least I picked the right team to pivot to in the Patriots. The Chargers, Cardinals and Eagles knocked out 26 percent of pools collectively.
Let's take a look at this week's games:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAMS | Giants | 54.70% | 675 | 87.10 | 7.06 |
| Ravens | FOOTBALL TEAM | 23.40% | 750 | 88.24 | 2.75 |
| Seahawks | DOLPHINS | 5.20% | 275 | 73.33 | 1.39 |
| BUCCANEERS | Chargers | 5.10% | 300 | 75.00 | 1.28 |
| PACKERS | Falcons | 3.30% | 310 | 75.61 | 0.80 |
| 49ERS | Eagles | 2.00% | 290 | 74.36 | 0.51 |
| COWBOYS | Browns | 1.90% | 205 | 67.21 | 0.62 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The first two massive favorites of the year are the Rams and Ravens, and while the Rams are at home, look at the massive number of people on them, presumably intending to save Baltimore for later. You should almost never save teams for reasons I've gone into here.
My Picks
1. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are traveling off a short week, but it's a quick drive from Baltimore to D.C., and I expect them to bounce back against the Football Team. Dwayne Haskins isn't good, and Chase Young is out for the game too. I give the Ravens an 87 percent chance to win this game.
2. Los Angeles Rams
They're home against a weak Giants team, so ordinarily this would be a great play, but they're also 55 percent owned, so they're an easy fade with the Ravens available. I give the Rams an 88 percent chance to win this game.
Are you not using the #Ravens in your Survivor pool this week because you want to save them for later?
.@Chris_Liss & @Jeff_Erickson explain why that is a mistake on @RotoWire! pic.twitter.com/RB0UhNZEgw
— Fantasy Sports Radio (@SiriusXMFantasy) October 1, 2020
3. Green Bay Packers
Even though the Rams are heavily owned, I would still use them over the Packers who are favored but not by nearly the same margin. Aaron Rodgers has looked like his old self, but Davante Adams is iffy for the game, and the Falcons offense gives them a puncher's chance. I give the Packers a 78 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- The Bucs should handle the Chargers at home, but Tom Brady and the offense have yet to get entirely in sync, and the Chargers aren't a doormat.
Seattle Seahawks -- I love the pass-first Seahawks, but the Dolphins showed up last week, are on extra rest and the Seattle-Miami trip is about as long as it gets in the continental US.
San Francisco 49ers -- They crushed both NY teams while missing key starters, but they won't get everyone back, and the Eagles are a desperate animal.
