This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
Both of these teams harbor intense Super Bowl ambitions, yet neither can be happy with how their seasons have gone so far, particularly following last week. The Buccaneers lost at home to a conference rival – in a 14-12 slog, no less – and the Chiefs blew it against a toothless Colts team after only narrowly defeating a battered Chargers team before that. Whichever team loses this game will be in a difficult spot relative to where they thought they would be one month ago, so the urgency should be high on both sides.
QUARTERBACKS
Patrick Mahomes ($11400 DK, $17000 FD) heads into this game looking to bounce back after a dud showing against the Colts in Week 3, and he usually does just that. While the Buccaneers secondary is well-stocked their pass rush is not, so Mahomes should have the chance to improvise broken plays if necessary. With that said, the Buccaneers pass defense has been very effective to this point so Mahomes and Chiefs offense will probably need to play a little sharper than they did in their shocking upset loss against Indianapolis.
Tom Brady ($10000 DK, $15000 FD) has really struggled through three weeks, though the fact that it's been against a fairly tough schedule and with a mountain of injuries at offensive line and wide receiver means that the poor production was somewhat predictable and likely excusable. Brady's offensive line and wide receivers are more healthy than they were a week or two ago, too, so
Both of these teams harbor intense Super Bowl ambitions, yet neither can be happy with how their seasons have gone so far, particularly following last week. The Buccaneers lost at home to a conference rival – in a 14-12 slog, no less – and the Chiefs blew it against a toothless Colts team after only narrowly defeating a battered Chargers team before that. Whichever team loses this game will be in a difficult spot relative to where they thought they would be one month ago, so the urgency should be high on both sides.
QUARTERBACKS
Patrick Mahomes ($11400 DK, $17000 FD) heads into this game looking to bounce back after a dud showing against the Colts in Week 3, and he usually does just that. While the Buccaneers secondary is well-stocked their pass rush is not, so Mahomes should have the chance to improvise broken plays if necessary. With that said, the Buccaneers pass defense has been very effective to this point so Mahomes and Chiefs offense will probably need to play a little sharper than they did in their shocking upset loss against Indianapolis.
Tom Brady ($10000 DK, $15000 FD) has really struggled through three weeks, though the fact that it's been against a fairly tough schedule and with a mountain of injuries at offensive line and wide receiver means that the poor production was somewhat predictable and likely excusable. Brady's offensive line and wide receivers are more healthy than they were a week or two ago, too, so there should be better days ahead, hopefully starting in this one. The Chiefs haven't allowed much in the way of passing yardage (6.2 YPA) but their 6:1 touchdown to interception ratio and 68.3 percent completion percentage imply they can be beaten, presumably even more so when you have a receiver like Mike Evans to work with.
RUNNING BACKS
The Buccaneers have leaned heavily on Leonard Fournette ($10400 DK, $13500 FD) to get them through a turbulent period of injuries, and the sledding has been tough without much help. In this setting Fournette has more help, yet the team is just as dependent on him. Rachaad White ($600 DK, $7000 FD) is trending the wrong way on offense, though he might make a sensible pairing with the Tampa DST given that he started returning kicks last week. When there is something to be done in the offensive backfield, though, it appears it will either be Fournette or nobody. The Chiefs run defense has seemingly improved through three games but historically struggle to great extents, so this might be a good setup for Fournette to get hot.
The Chiefs backfield is more confusing. Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($7800 DK, $12000 FD) is the lead man and their best producer from scrimmage, but he was completely stonewalled on the ground last week and is vulnerable to cold stretches. The Buccaneers defense is typically formidable against the run, though maybe less than usual with Akiem Hicks out on the defensive line. Jerick McKinnon ($4600 DK, $6500 FD) gets a lot of snaps otherwise but rarely does anything useful with them. Isiah Pacheco ($2200 DK, $7000 FD) would be an obvious upgrade if the Chiefs are interested in that.
WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS
Mike Evans ($9400 DK, $13000 FD) is back after a one-game suspension and should be in a good spot to produce in his return. The Chiefs are weakest at boundary corner, where they feature one (promising) rookie on one side and a fringe starter on the other. It's also not clear how healthy Evans' target competition might be – all of Chris Godwin ($8400 DK, $11000 FD), Julio Jones ($6600 DK, $10500 FD) and Russell Gage ($6200 DK, $11000 FD) are questionable with various maladies. If any of the latter three are out then players like Scotty Miller ($3400 DK, $7500 FD), Jaelon Darden ($1000 DK, $5500 FD) and Cole Beasley ($4800 DK, $7500 FD) might need to play more. Miller was very productive in his first two NFL seasons but has badly struggled since, including in 2022, but his downfield speed still stands out. Darden might make a good pairing with the Buccaneers DST, since he is their primary punt returner. Beasley only played six snaps last week and it's not clear what the Buccaneers have in mind for him in this matchup. Tight ends Cameron Brate ($3600 DK, $6500 FD) has been much more active as a pass catcher to this point than rookie Cade Otton ($200 DK, $5500 FD).
Travis Kelce ($10800 DK, $14000 FD) is the WR1 in Kansas City, so he'll doubtlessly get the most attention from the Tampa defense. It's not clear whether they are well-situated to stop him, though. Kelce often runs from the slot where the Buccaneers have often used Antoine Winfield – a fierce player but at 5-foot-9 much smaller than Kelce. JuJu Smith-Schuster ($7000 DK, $10000 FD) might not ever challenge Kelce for the top pass-catching distinction, but at least he's the clear WR2 and his peripheral stats have been strong despite modest fantasy output to this point. The problem for Smith-Schuster is the Buccaneers have a corner (Carlton Davis) who very effectively matches his traits, and the Buccaneers might use Davis as a shadow cover. But again, Smith-Schuster has quietly played very well through three games. Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5600 DK, $8500 FD) is questionable but is a candidate to play 50 snaps if active. Mecole Hardman ($5200 DK, $8000 FD) is more threatening than Valdes-Scantling from scrimmage but plays fewer snaps. Hardman might take over as punt returner this week, so he might be a sensible pairing for someone who picks the Chiefs DST. Justin Watson ($800 DK, $6000 FD) and Skyy Moore ($200 DK, $6000 FD) are at risk of playing fewer than 10 snaps, though they can be threatening on the few snaps they play.
KICKERS
Ryan Succop ($4000 DK, $9000 FD) is the Tampa kicker, and though he lacks range he tends to be reliable from within 50 yards. If the Buccaneers move the ball well but fail to capitalize in the red zone then Succop could see usage, and when he sees usages he tends to convert his attempts. Matthew Wright ($4200 DK, $9000 FD) isn't as much of a brand name on the other side, but he might be the better kicker. Wright made 21-of-24 field goal attempts for the Jaguars in 2021, and includes a formidable 4-of-6 from beyond 50 yards.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
With quarterbacks like these the defenses might not be so popular in showdown slates, but the Chiefs ($4400 DK, $9500 FD) have their best pass rush in years, and the Tampa offense is dealing with a lot of injuries at receiver and on the offensive line. The Buccaneers ($3200 DK, $9500 FD) catch the Chiefs offense looking less than full strength, too, though at least Mahomes' offensive line and pass-catching personnel are mostly intact. The Buccaneers pass rush has been lacking to this point and it won't help that they're without standout lineman Akiem Hicks.
