This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
The 49ers have been dealing with a plethora of injuries this season, and while they had some players return, they are still 3.0-point home underdogs to the Rams on Sunday in a game with a solid 51.5-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook. Coming off an embarrassing 43-17 home loss to the Dolphins last week, the Niners sit last in the NFC West at 2-4 while the Rams are a solid 4-1, allowing the fewest points in the conference (90), and fourth-fewest in the NFL. The two teams like to move the ball in very different ways, and they also have enough weapons where there may not be a very chalky build on either DraftKings or FanDuel.
QUARTERBACKS
The Rams prefer to move the ball through the air, which certainly contributes to Jared Goff ($10,800 DK, $15,500 FD) being the most expensive player on both sites. While he's a very efficient passer, having completed at least 70 percent of his passes in all but the opneing game of the season, Goff has eclipsed 300 yards just twice, even though he has accounted for at least three touchdowns in three of his last four. Interestingly, since he doesn't run much, Goff rushed for a touchdown in Weeks 3 and 5, which happen to also be the games when he threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns. The 49ers defense has been crushed with injuries, and specifically their secondary, so there's no denying that Goff will have an advantage in this one. The
The 49ers have been dealing with a plethora of injuries this season, and while they had some players return, they are still 3.0-point home underdogs to the Rams on Sunday in a game with a solid 51.5-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook. Coming off an embarrassing 43-17 home loss to the Dolphins last week, the Niners sit last in the NFC West at 2-4 while the Rams are a solid 4-1, allowing the fewest points in the conference (90), and fourth-fewest in the NFL. The two teams like to move the ball in very different ways, and they also have enough weapons where there may not be a very chalky build on either DraftKings or FanDuel.
QUARTERBACKS
The Rams prefer to move the ball through the air, which certainly contributes to Jared Goff ($10,800 DK, $15,500 FD) being the most expensive player on both sites. While he's a very efficient passer, having completed at least 70 percent of his passes in all but the opneing game of the season, Goff has eclipsed 300 yards just twice, even though he has accounted for at least three touchdowns in three of his last four. Interestingly, since he doesn't run much, Goff rushed for a touchdown in Weeks 3 and 5, which happen to also be the games when he threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns. The 49ers defense has been crushed with injuries, and specifically their secondary, so there's no denying that Goff will have an advantage in this one. The biggest difficulty with Goff is that he's expensive, and particularly so when used as a captain on DraftKings because of the salary multiplier, but that isn't likely to keep his popularity down much.
The contrarian move is certainly to look at Niners quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo ($9,600 DK, $14,000 FD), who isn't even the most expensive player on his team on either site. Maybe that's because he failed to throw for 260 yards in either of his first two starts this season and was then benched last week against Miami after completing 7-of-17 passes for 77 yards and two interceptions. The move to replace him with C.J. Beathard ($9,200 DK, $13,500 FD) was supposedly to protect him in his first game back from a high right ankle sprain, which seems very convenient after his horrific performance. Beathard was better, completing 9-of-18 passes for 94 yards and a touchdown, but apparently losing 30-7 at halftime wasn't enough for Garoppolo to lose his job (which, in fairness, it shouldn't be). Either way, it's tough to get overly excited about Garoppolo other than the fact that others aren't likely to be excited about him and he at least has his full complement of pass catchers after missing at least one in each of his previous starts. A Garoppolo captain sure looks good from a contrarian standpoint, but you better have a strong stomach.
RUNNING BACKS
The 49ers' running back situation is usually a bit cloudy, but it seems clear that as long as Raheem Mostert ($9,800 DK, $14,000 FD) is healthy then he's going to lead the way. Despite getting shellacked last week, Mostert still had a good game, rushing 11 times for 90 yards and catching all three of his targets for 29 receiving yards. The rushing attempts were obviously limited because they were getting killed, but he still managed to reach 90 yards for the second time in three games this season. Meanwhile, Jerick McKinnon ($2,400 DK, $12,500 FD) saw his workload greatly decrease, rushing once for zero yards and catching two of four targets for five receiving yards. He's still being priced on FanDuel as if he's the starter, but his DraftKings salary seems to be more appropriate of his expected role.
Statistically, the Rams have allowed the 15th-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs on DraftKings and 14th on FanDuel, but it's worth seeing that they allowed over 100 rushing yards and a touchdown to running backs from Dallas and Philadelphia in the first two weeks of the season and then held the Bills, Giants and Football Team mostly in check. Given the hesitancy with Garoppolo, those who want a piece of the 49ers' offense will probably gravitate to Mostert. McKinnon theoretically makes sense for those who make a ton of lineups given the injury issues of everyone involved, while Jeff Wilson ($800 DK, $10,500 FD) has a crazy price on FanDuel, if he plays at all after being questionable with a calf injury. Wilson is occasionally tempting because he gets most of his carries near the goal line, but he doesn't get nearly enough volume, a situation that applies even more to JaMycal Hasty ($200 DK, $7,000 FD) if he's active in place of Wilson.
The Rams' backfield is a hot mess and unlikely to be popular because it's a committee. Darrell Henderson ($7,600 DK, $12,000 FD) is technically at the top, and he's expected to get the first crack Sunday night after scoring two touchdowns against Football Team last week. However, he needed 15 carries to reach 38 rushing yards, while catching three of four targets for 30 receiving yards. Malcolm Brown ($1,600 DK, $8,500 FD) has been the guy on obvious passing downs, playing 12 of 14 snaps on third and medium/long against Washington, and he only needed eight rushing attempts to each 30 yards. It seems pretty unlikely that Brown will have a meaningful role on early downs, especially after coach Sean McVay said after last week's game that rookie Cam Akers ($2,000 DK, $9,500 FD) would see an increased workload against San Francisco.
Akers is just the kind of wildcard that people love to gravitate to, and after rushing nine times for 61 yards, including a 46-yard scamper, against Football Team, he could definitely be popular because he's cheap. Henderson is likely to get the early work, but if Akers can make a few good plays on his first couple of touches, we could be seeing a changing of the guard. Unfortunately, they face a 49ers defense that's allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs this season on DraftKings and third-fewest on FanDuel, with their 3.08 yards per carry allowed the second-lowest in the league, and only seven teams have allowed fewer running back receptions. Nevertheless, Akers could be a very interesting option, and using him as captain/MVP really opens up a lot of salary.
WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS
The Rams' pass-catching group is dominated by Cooper Kupp ($9,000 DK, $12,500 FD) and Robert Woods ($8,400 DK, $13,000 FD), who have accounted for 45.89 percent of the team's targets, 46.79 percent of the receptions, 48.32 percent of their receiving yards and 43.61 percent of the air yards. Unlike many teams whose top two wideouts run different types of rounds (short versus long, for example), both Kupp and Woods run shorter routes, posting 5.7 and 5.6 aDOTs, respectively, which is why they have a smaller share of air yards versus receiving yards. Adding to the short yardage plays is tight end Tyler Higbee ($6,800 DK, $10,500 FD), whose 6.3 aDOT is the third-highest on the team, tied with backup tight end Gerald Everett ($4,600 DK, $5,500 FD). Higbee was great in Week 2 against Philadelphia, catching all five targets for 54 yards and three touchdowns, two of which from inside the five-yard line, but he's produced very little otherwise, catching nine of 12 targets for 112 yards in four games.
Meanwhile, Everett led the team in receiving yards last week when catching all four targets for 90 yards, but it was his first game this season with more than two targets, and he probably doesn't get himself in the optimal lineup for this game.
The longer-play guys have been Josh Reynolds ($2,600 DK, $6,500 FD) and Van Jefferson ($400 DK, $6,000 FD), who have 11.7 and 13.6 aDOTs, respectively. Reynolds is second on the team, trailing only Kupp, with 187 air yards, catching 12 of 16 targets for 181 yards, while Jefferson has five catches on 10 targets for 76 receiving yards. Reynolds is likely to be the more popular because Jefferson hasn't even caught a pass since Week 2, while Reynolds has nine catches on 13 targets for 131 yards since that game. The benefit of Reynolds is that he can make a lot happen on a single play, but it seems like a tough sell when he's more expensive than Akers on DraftKings.
Kupp and Woods make for decent captain/MVP choices if you think the Rams air it out and one of them is the top guy, obviously with Goff as a flex for correlation. You can also do all three with Akers in the multiplier spot, but you're obviously going very heavy on the Rams at that point (which might not be a bad idea!).
The San Francisco passing game starts with tight end George Kittle ($10,400 DK, $13,500 FD), who leads the team in targets (28), receptions (23) and receiving yards (271), while he's one of five players tied with one receiving touchdown, all trailing Jordan Reed's two (Reed is out with an ankle injury). It's worth pointing out that Kittle has only played three games, but he showed his tremendous upside in Week 4 against Philadelphia when he caught 15 of 15 targets for 183 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately, he supplemented that game with two of four catches for 44 yards, so he's hardly a risk-free option.
Wide receiver Deebo Samuel ($6,200 DK, $10,000 FD) is slowly making his way back from injury, having missing the first three games and then catching five of 11 targets for 54 yards in his two games since returning. It's not big production, though his eight targets were the second-most on the team last week. Rookie Brandon Aiyuk ($5,000 DK, $11,000 FD) may be the more preferred option, as he is still looking for his first receiving touchdown even though he rushed for a score in Weeks 3 and 4. But again, there isn't significant volume, topping out at eight targets in Week 3 when he caught five for 70 yards. And there's Kendrick Bourne ($3,200 DK, $7,500 FD), who scored last week and has gotten at least four targets in every game. Then again, he doesn't have more than four receptions in any game, and he has 63 yards in the past two games combined after reaching 67 and 63 in Weeks 1 and 2. The return of Samuel seems to be hurting Bourne more than anyone else, regardless of his touchdown last week. At least Bourne leads the team with a 10.1 aDOT and 262 air yards, though that ranks 53rd league-wide. Other guys like Trent Taylor ($200 DK, $6,000 FD), Ross Dwelley ($200 DK, $6,000 FD) and fullback Kyle Juszczyk ($600 DK, $5,000 FD) are theoretically options for those who make up to 150 lineups, but there really isn't much to spark interest for those who make few lineups, even with Juszczyk scoring a rushing touchdown last week.
Kittle is likely to be the most popular 49ers pass-catching captain/MVP, but given how much they like to spread the ball around, maybe Garappolo's popularity in those spots will be higher.
KICKERS
Neither Robbie Gould ($3,800 DK, $9,000 FD) not Samuel Sloman ($4,000 DK, $9,000 FD) have been overly prolific this season, not only combining for one double-digit fantasy score this season but also only three field-goal attempts in the past two weeks. Sloman has at least been able to supplement his lack of field-goal attempts with PATs over the past two, but that still doesn't ignore that his season-high in fantasy points this season is 8.0 and that came in Week 1.
Of course, past kicker performance isn't necessarily an indicator of future success, and if the offenses struggle scoring touchdowns then presumably Gould and Sloman could be viable options, more so in cash games than GPPs because of their somewhat reliable floors (meaning they're more likely to reach five fantasy points than backup wide receivers or running backs). With a game total over 50, neither figure to be used as captain/MVPs, but naturally that makes them solid contrarian plays.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
The injuries to the 49ers' defense ($4,400 DK) have caused issues on almost every level, which helps explain why they forced just five turnovers in five games while picking up 10 sacks in that span. Only once have they broken 6.0 fantasy points on DraftKings, and they're coming off a dismal minus-2.0 against Miami. And while the Rams ($5,600 DK) forced just one turnover in their past two games, they also had 13 sacks, giving them 20 for the season. It certainly helped playing the Giants and Football Team in those games, but they can force pressure or keep receivers covered long enough for Aaron Donald to destroy whatever is in front of him.
It's tough to envision much upside for either defense unless they score a touchdown, though the Rams have play-makers in their secondary who could take a Garoppolo interception to the house. Given the high total, neither are likely to be that popular, but similarly to the kickers, building lineups for a low-scoring game, which could include kickers and defenses, would be a clear contrarian play for large-field GPPs.
