Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Denver vs. Minnesota

There could be a bit of rain or/and wind waiting for the Vikings when they go to face the Broncos at Mile High Stadium on Sunday night, which would somewhat complicate the fantasy projections for the game. It hasn't been easy or pleasant most of the time, but Russell Wilson has quietly rebounded in 2023 to make the Broncos offense surprisingly competent going into Week 11. With 18 touchdowns to four interceptions passing, Wilson has avoided mistakes and made the most of scoring opportunities. Joshua Dobbs on the other side brings new life to the Minnesota offense that seemed done for after the season-ending injury to Kirk Cousins, making for what could be a competitive back-and-forth game despite the modest ambitions of the two teams – the Broncos at 4-5, and the Vikings at 6-4. The over/under is 41.5, with the Broncos favored by 3.0 points.

QUARTERBACK

Joshua Dobbs ($10600 DK, $15000 FD) is one of the most exciting stories in the league at the moment, and he gets a matchup here against a Denver defense that has generally struggled in 2023. There might be some amount of peril, though, both due to the weather and because the Broncos have largely regained their composure since their historical early-season embarrassment at the hands of Miami. Dobbs' rushing production seems bankable – the weather shouldn't affect that – so he arguably has the best floor at quarterback in this game.

With that said, Russell Wilson ($10000 DK, $14500 FD) is likely the superior passer of the two, and short of rain/wind intervention it should be Wilson who provides the most passing production in this game. Wilson can still run a bit in his own right – he has 231 rushing yards on the year, including 30 or more yards in four of his last five games – he just probably isn't quite on Dobbs' level in that regard. Wilson's passing upside is likely limited by the design of the Denver offense, as he hasn't attempted more than 31 pass attempts in a game in any of the last six games.

RUNNING BACK

Javonte Williams ($8800 DK, $13000 FD) has the upside to lead this game in fantasy scoring, especially if the two passing attacks are slowed at all by the weather. Williams can capitalize as a pass catcher too – he has 10 receptions in his last three games – so if Williams can get rolling on the ground then he could accumulate volume both as a runner and receiver. Jaleel McLaughlin ($2800 DK, $8000 FD) remains a capable threat as a draw back and screen pass target, though his meager workload requires a big play or touchdown opportunity to propel any useful fantasy outcome. Samaje Perine ($3200 DK, $7000 FD) is still hanging around, too, but he mostly specializes in pass blocking and the occasional checkdown target.

Ty Chandler ($7000 DK, $10000 FD) could get a bigger audition at running back while Alexander Mattison ($7400 DK, $10500 FD) returns from a concussion, though as of press time Mattison was generally expected to play. Someone at running back should be able to produce for Minnesota here – Kene Nwangwu ($1200 DK, $6500 FD) is a third, distant candidate – because the Denver run defense has generally been poor in 2023. The numbers are no doubt inflated from the Miami debacle earlier this season, but allowing 5.8 yards per carry over 210 attempts is brutal no matter how you cut it. Nwangwu is also your likely kick returner pairing for the Vikings DST if you were to choose it.

WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END

Courtland Sutton ($8200 DK, $12500 FD) is rolling right now, scoring a touchdown in four straight games and six in the last seven games. The Vikings corners are not obviously imposing, so Sutton or/and Jerry Jeudy ($7800 DK, $9500 FD) could both have room to thrive if Wilson is able to throw effectively. The Broncos passing attack is generally low volume and generally channels through Sutton and Jeudy for the most part, but third wideout Marvin Mims ($5600 DK, $7500 FD) is a capable threat if the Broncos should start attempting to use him. Mims is primarily a deep threat, though, and is likely precluded from target volume. Lil'Jordan Humphrey and Adam Trautman are candidates to see a target or two and are thus viable punt considerations, but they have almost no floor or ceiling to speak of. Trautman did have a 24-yard, one-touchdown game back in Week 5, but only four catches for 24 yards since.

T.J. Hockenson ($9400 DK, $12000 FD) is a candidate to lead this game in fantasy scoring, as he has been red-hot since the injury to Justin Jefferson. Jefferson won't be back for this game, so it's hard to see how Hockenson could slow down here. The rushing threat posed by Dobbs makes it especially difficult for defenses to tell whether they should focus on Hockenson or cut him loose to pursue Dobbs, and the Saints had a lot of trouble dealing with it last week. Jordan Addison ($8400 DK, $11500 FD) can take over the Minnesota receiving game if Hockenson doesn't, but the Vikings might still be liable to rotate the rookie somewhat with K.J. Osborn ($6600 DK, $7500 FD). Brandon Powell ($4000 DK, $8000 FD) should continue to function as the primary slot receiver for Minnesota while Jefferson is out. Josh Oliver ($2600 DK, $6000 FD) tends to block for the most part, but he's a candidate to see upwards of 30 tight end snaps in any given game.

KICKER

Hopefully the rain or/and wind don't disrupt anything, because Greg Joseph ($5200 DK, $8500 FD) and Wil Lutz ($5000 DK, $9000 FD) are both capable kickers who can breeze past double-digit fantasy points in any one game. Joseph has had more struggles of late than Lutz, as Joseph has missed four field goals over the last four weeks, but Joseph also sees more long-range opportunities than most kickers since he can make it from 50-plus.

Lutz has the cleaner game of late, missing only one of his last 17 field goal attempts. Lutz is less likely to strike from 50 yards than Joseph, but the tradeoff is that Lutz is the more accurate one from within 50 yards. That, and as the home favorites the game script should tilt toward Lutz's favor if the spread is sound.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

While neither defense in this matchup is imposing, the fallibility of the two offenses combined with the potential for weather makes the defenses worth more consideration than they might be normally.

The Vikings ($4600 DK, $9000 FD) like to blitz a lot – according to Pro Football Reference they do it more than any other team – and in theory successful blitzes could equal turnover opportunities. Wilson hasn't been the type to turn it over in 2023, though, throwing only four interceptions and losing three fumbles in nine games – though wacky turnover outcomes might be more likely if there's a bit of rain or wind.

The Broncos ($4400 DK, $8500 FD) have the theoretical advantage of playing as the home favorite, and they certainly have gotten their act back together a bit after their early-season embarrassment against Miami. The running tendencies of Dobbs could bring a heightened fumble risk – he's lost six in 10 games – but generally it seems like the Broncos defense might need the weather to give it a boost.