Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Chargers vs. Miami

The Chargers (+3.5) and Dolphins both can consider their Sunday night matchup a Must Win game, though at 8-4 Miami has a bit more cushion than the Chargers at 6-6. The potential homefield benefit to the Chargers might be modest since it's Miami's second game in a row on the west coast. Tua Tagovailoa and his speedy wideout tandem will try to get back on track after a challenging loss to San Francisco last week, and the Dolphins will no doubt look to run more after their ground game completely evaporated against the 49ers. If the Dolphins offense gets hot again then Justin Herbert might make it a shootout from the other side, especially with Mike Williams back at receiver. The over/under is 54.5, up from 51.5.

QUARTERBACKS

Tua Tagovailoa ($10400 DK, $16000 FD) struggled against the 49ers but should bounce back in this setting. That should have been the case either way, but it should be especially true since the Chargers are without their two best seam defenders – elite safety Derwin James and standout slot corner Bryce Callahan. The Chargers' personnel is dubious at all levels of the defense with James and Joey Bosa out, so as long as the Dolphins account for Khalil Mack the passing game should be able to run its process.

Justin Herbert ($10800 DK, $16500 FD) has had a disappointing season and the Chargers still suffer from a lack of speed on offense, but injuries in his supporting cast have been the primary reason for his struggles. The return of Mike Williams – the first reassembling of the starting Chargers wide receiver rotation since Week 1 – should bring a profound change in the conditions Herbert has played through to this point. Particularly since the Miami offense projects well on the other side, Herbert should be in good position to keep pace in a shootout setting. Both quarterbacks project very well in this game – the wide variety of high-scoring, high-priced players should keep the chalk relatively light.

RUNNING BACKS

Austin Ekeler ($11000 DK, $15000 FD) might not run for big numbers against a Dolphins defense that's better against the run than against the pass, but he's always a good bet to run for a touchdown and his pass-catching utility should be about as sound as ever. With Mike Williams back defenses will be given a disincentive to crashing toward the flats, which should buy Ekeler more room underneath once the downfield threat is understood. Joshua Kelley ($5400 DK, $6000 FD) has yet to do anything with his snaps but draws them nonetheless, playing 30 in Week 13.

Raheem Mostert ($5600 DK, $9500 FD) reestablished himself as Miami's clear RB1 last week and against this weak Chargers run defense he's capable of pushing for 100 yards and/or a longer-range touchdown. If the Dolphins accumulate carry volume at running back then Mostert might eventually tag in Jeff Wilson ($6200 DK, $10500 FD) to handle most of the carries from 15 onward. Wilson can't imitate Mostert's explosiveness but should find easy running room with whatever volume he gets, and he could see his usage fluctuate upward the more between-the-tackle running in the Dolphins' playcalling. Alec Ingold ($1400 DK, $5500 FD) is a fullback but plays around 30 snaps per game and has two four-target games in the past three weeks.

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

Mike Williams ($7000 DK, $11000 FD) is back and returns at an opportune time against a Miami pass defense that lacks the personnel to defend him. Williams and Keenan Allen ($8200 DK, $12000 FD) should both see substantial volume against a defense that's more easily beaten through the air than on the ground. Joshua Palmer ($6800 DK, $10000 FD) should maintain a safe playing time edge over DeAndre Carter ($4800 DK, $8000 FD), though Carter might see a snap count in the 20s even so depending on how many two-tight end looks the Chargers call for. Gerald Everett ($5000 DK, $8500 FD) is locked into a workload in the 40-snap range and Tre McKitty ($400 DK, $5000 FD) reliably plays 20 or more snaps, but the number of TE3 reps beyond them is unclear. Stone Smartt ($600 DK, $5000 FD) is an interesting long shot who played 19 snaps in Week 11 and 16 snaps in Week 13, though the former Old Dominion quarterback has yet to produce on his 42 snaps.

Tyreek Hill ($11400 DK, $15500 FD) and Jaylen Waddle ($9000 DK, $12500 FD) need no sales pitch. They both project great here – especially Hill, of course – and if either one of them disappoints it means the Dolphins' chances of winning take a sharp downturn. There is not just urgency to get them the ball but a dependency on doing so, even if the Miami running game gets back on track. In fact, the Dolphins run game jumpstarting should specifically open up opportunities through the air. Mike Gesicki ($4400 DK, $7000 FD) has all but disappeared from the Dolphins offense and clearly isn't a good fit for what Mike McDaniel is doing, but with Durham Smythe ($3000 DK, $7000 FD) dealing with quad/knee issues it's possible that Gesicki gets more reps than he has in the past few weeks. Gesicki's disappearance makes Trent Sherfield ($4600 DK, $7500 FD) the Dolphins' new third-leading target, and despite a lack of target volume Sherfield has reliably stepped up when his number is called. Cedrick Wilson ($200 DK, $7000 FD) has barely played but might see more snaps than usual with River Cracraft doubtful.

KICKERS

Jason Sanders ($4000 DK, $9500 FD) has a history of making long-range kicks and the Dolphins are projected to move the ball with ease in this game, so he should have double-digit upside in this game. The problem is his accuracy has suffered the last two years, and specifically from beyond 50 yards. He has four double-digit fantasy outputs this year, with a high of 13. Cameron Dicker ($4200 DK, $9000 FD) has yet to make a 50-yard field goal in the NFL but has otherwise been accurate, making 12 of 13 field goals and all 12 extra points.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Neither defense projects especially well in this game, which features modest pass rushes and two of the most potent passing games in the league, but the Dolphins ($3400 DK, $9000 FD) at least have the benefit of being the favored team. The Chargers ($3600 DK, $8500 FD) might have posed a greater challenge to the Dolphins offense if they weren't so wrecked by injury – Joey Bosa is still out, and now Derwin James and Bryce Callahan are also out in the specific parts of the field where the Dolphins passing game primarily operates.