Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Chargers vs. Kansas City

At 7-2 the Chiefs season has mostly gone to plan, and the presumed Super Bowl contenders look like the team they're supposed to be. The Chargers were also a presumed Super Bowl contender going into this year, yet their season has gone very differently as an improbable series of major injuries has exposed a lack of depth at crucial points in the Chargers depth chart, causing them to stumble to a 5-4 start and leaving their playoff hopes largely dependent on their ability to win this game. The good news is that wideouts Keenan Allen (hamstring) and Mike Williams (ankle) are back after prolonged absences, giving Justin Herbert a crucial boost in firepower, and facing the Chiefs in Los Angeles is certainly preferable to playing them at Arrowhead. The bad news is the Chiefs – even without JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion) and Mecole Hardman (abdomen) – are still favored by 4.5 points. The over/under is up two points to 51.5.

QUARTERBACKS

Patrick Mahomes ($11400 DK, $17000 FD) is on fire lately but faces a novel test Sunday as he attempts to operate with a crew of mostly new faces at wide receiver. Kadarius Toney wasn't on the team a month ago, Skyy Moore is a rookie, and the duo of Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Justin Watson were both free agency pickups. Toney has only played with the team a short time and Moore/Watson have barely played despite breaking camp with the team, so Mahomes has a lot of moving parts to manage. Luckily the Chargers still don't have back Joey Bosa, so that's arguably the greatest concern of the matchup crossed out right there. With that said, Mahomes had more help in the first game between these teams, and in that Arrowhead matchup Mahomes was well contained, completing 24 of 35 pass attempts but for just 235 yards and two touchdowns.

Justin Herbert ($10400 DK, $14000 FD) spent most of this season in Mahomes' present position – with substantially worse replacements, mind you – but in this game the hope is Keenan Allen and Mike Williams will be able to step back into the spotlight and give Herbert (and Austin Ekeler) some much-needed relief. Defenses have played the Chargers like a 10-yard field at all times, and Herbert has had such little help that he can't do anything to take advantage of the disrespect downfield. Team speed remains a problem for the Chargers offense, but at least Allen and Williams are capable route runners with standout ball skills. Not just that, but the Chiefs have a rookie corner logging almost every single boundary rep. The Chiefs defense is improving as its new components develop more chemistry, but Herbert has to be liking his situation more than he has in months.

RUNNING BACKS

Austin Ekeler ($11000 DK, $15000 FD) is the most overworked man in sports, though hopefully the returns of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams will take a little bit of the burden off of Ekeler. Usage is great for fantasy and that Ekeler is an all-time great pass catcher makes his usage particularly profitable, but his returns have suffered for it and there is always a cost. His 5.2 YPT figure is easily the lowest of his career, and his 4.3 YPC is the lowest since 2019, so if Ekeler loses some targets to Allen/Williams then it need not necessarily harm his fantasy point total if the efficiency trends toward past levels. Isaiah Spiller ($2800 DK, $6500 FD) might eventually push aside Sony Michel ($1800 DK, $5500 FD) to serve as Ekeler's clear backup, but it hasn't happened yet.

Isiah Pacheco ($6800 DK, $9000 FD) appears fully installed as the Chiefs' lead runner, and this should be a nice matchup for him. The Chargers run defense is dreadful, allowing an obscene 5.7 yards per carry to opposing running backs, so it would almost be a disappointment if Pacheco averaged less than 5.0 yards per carry in this game. Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($4400 DK, $7500 FD) always gives more yards per snap than Jerick McKinnon ($4600 DK, $7000 FD) -- be it as a runner receiver – but the Chiefs evidently just prefer McKinnon's aesthetic even at the cost of surrendered returns. Teams that operate so irrationally eventually create problems for themselves, but the fact is the Chiefs are committed to McKinnon and seemingly no matter what it costs them. What McKinnon has going for him is that the defense will never care about where he is or defend him closely – his utility is that the defense looks past him, so the fact that the Chargers have been somewhat stingy to opposing RB pass catchers doesn't necessarily matter since McKinnon ultimately needs a failed assignment or a forfeited coverage from the defense to move the ball.

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

Keenan Allen ($8600 DK, $10500 FD) and Mike Williams ($9000 DK, $12500 FD) are tricky calls to make as they return from their respective injuries, because rust could be a factor in both cases even if both are near full health. Williams should be close to fully healthy from his high ankle sprain, but Allen is arguably more difficult since he's missed eight combined weeks with his hamstring issue, and swiftly aggravated the injury upon initially attempting to return in Week 7. Williams is the Chargers' primary outside receiver – where the Chiefs are almost exclusively running rookie corners – whereas Allen would mostly run in the slot and see more of the capable veteran corner L'Jarius Sneed. Joshua Palmer ($7200 DK, $10000 FD) and DeAndre Carter ($5200 DK, $7500 FD) will have to take a playing time cut, with the two seemingly working in a committee as co-WR3s depending on the playcall, but Palmer should be considered the favorite of the two especially given Carter's full-time returner role. Gerald Everett ($4800 DK, $7000 FD) might miss the game after popping up on the injury report Saturday, meaning Tre McKitty ($2200 DK, $5000 FD) might need to play starting tight end. The opportunity level would make McKitty interesting for the price. Richard Rodgers ($200 DK, $5000 FD) might also need to play upwards of 25 snaps if Everett is out.

Kadarius Toney ($8000 DK, $8500 FD) could fail in this setting, but if he does then it seems to dictate that the Chiefs passing game as a whole fails. Travis Kelce ($10600 DK, $14500 FD) is of course the WR1 and workhorse of this offense despite whatever TE title, but (A) the Chiefs still have slack left after him and (B) Derwin James could be a unique matchup issue. Even if Kelce does his part the Chiefs need Toney to step up, because Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5400 DK, $7500 FD) is more of a distance runner and big-play specialist than a viable target hog. Justin Watson ($1400 DK, $6500 FD) is a very tempting bargain target, as his could be the Chiefs' second-leading snap contributor at receiver behind Valdes-Scanting. His talent, of course, badly trails that of Toney or the largely forgotten rookie Skyy Moore ($600 DK, $7000 FD). Noah Gray ($3000 DK, $5000 FD) has quietly played a major role for the Chiefs as their TE2, logging 66 snaps over the last two games and drawing five targets. Jody Fortson ($1000 DK, $5000 FD) is also hanging around as the TE3 – perhaps the Chiefs wide receiver injuries will grant him more playing time.

KICKERS

Harrison Butker ($4200 DK, $9000 FD) is normally as good as any kicker in the league, but to this point in 2022 he has seemed to struggle to get on track following his early-season ankle injury. Butker has missed two of 17 extra point attempts and three of his eight field goal attempts, so it's not clear when it would be fair to expect him to resume his usual standard of production. Cameron Dicker ($4000 DK, $8500 FD) hasn't kicked a 50-yard attempt yet but has made all seven of the field goals he's attempted this year – five with the Chargers and two with the Eagles.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Justin Herbert isn't normally the kind of quarterback you want to target for a fantasy defense, but the Chiefs ($3800 DK, $8000 FD) defense is picking up steam as its new secondary works more together. Whether that secondary – which features a new starter at safety and three rookie cornerbacks – can withstand the returns of Allen and Williams. The Chargers ($3600 DK, $8000 FD) have a couple playmakers on defense themselves, but they're underdogs in this game for a reason. The Chargers run defense is abysmal, and to defend Patrick Mahomes they'll need to leave their run defense even more vulnerable yet. The returner pairings for Kansas City seem to be Skyy Moore and/or Kadarius Toney, while in the Chargers' case it should simply be DeAndre Carter.