This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
The Packers are in a tailspin while Buffalo is at home off their bye week. Aaron Rodgers has not done well in light of Davante Adams' exit, and the absence of Allen Lazard (shoulder) doesn't seem likely to help. The Packers have an additional mounting concern on the offensive line, where David Bakhtiari is dealing with continued knee issues at left tackle. Meanwhile, the Bills seem downright comfortable at 5-1 and have most of the crew they've won with all season. The only noteworthy absence for the Bills is right tackle Spencer Brown, but if that's the worst problem you have then life is pretty good. The Bills are favored by 10.5 points and the over/under is 46.5.
QUARTERBACKS
Josh Allen ($12200 DK, $15500 FD) is often a mandatory pick on showdown slates, and it's difficult to see why this would be any different. The Packers are reeling, including on defense, and the Bills are at home off the bye. With an ostensibly capable opponent on the other side, the Bills figure to be both urgent and sharp.
Aaron Rodgers ($9800 DK, $14500 FD) doesn't look like the MVP, and to be fair this is a difficult matchup for him. The Bills defense is among the best, the Packers are on the road, and WR1 Allen Lazard is out. Not just that, but the left tackle position is all of a sudden a concern with David Bakhtiari dealing with continued knee irritation. Rodgers is capable of greatness, but
The Packers are in a tailspin while Buffalo is at home off their bye week. Aaron Rodgers has not done well in light of Davante Adams' exit, and the absence of Allen Lazard (shoulder) doesn't seem likely to help. The Packers have an additional mounting concern on the offensive line, where David Bakhtiari is dealing with continued knee issues at left tackle. Meanwhile, the Bills seem downright comfortable at 5-1 and have most of the crew they've won with all season. The only noteworthy absence for the Bills is right tackle Spencer Brown, but if that's the worst problem you have then life is pretty good. The Bills are favored by 10.5 points and the over/under is 46.5.
QUARTERBACKS
Josh Allen ($12200 DK, $15500 FD) is often a mandatory pick on showdown slates, and it's difficult to see why this would be any different. The Packers are reeling, including on defense, and the Bills are at home off the bye. With an ostensibly capable opponent on the other side, the Bills figure to be both urgent and sharp.
Aaron Rodgers ($9800 DK, $14500 FD) doesn't look like the MVP, and to be fair this is a difficult matchup for him. The Bills defense is among the best, the Packers are on the road, and WR1 Allen Lazard is out. Not just that, but the left tackle position is all of a sudden a concern with David Bakhtiari dealing with continued knee irritation. Rodgers is capable of greatness, but he needs to be about as sharp as ever to hold his own here.
RUNNING BACKS
Aaron Jones ($10400 DK, $14000 FD) will need to step up for Green Bay to have a chance, even if A.J. Dillon ($4200 DK, $11000 FD) does something useful himself. The Bills will make explosive plays, and Jones is far and away the Packers' best big-play threat. The problem is the Bills defense is tough, allowing the least fantasy points in the league to running backs.
Devin Singletary ($7200 DK, $12000 FD) might at some point lose passing down reps to James Cook ($2000 DK, $7500 FD), but so far it hasn't happened. Meanwhile, it seems like Singletary is relatively unchallenged for carries. Zack Moss ($1000 DK, $8000 FD) is still hanging around, but it's not clear whether there's any role for him at this point. At least one player should be productive in the Bills backfield in this game, it just seems like Singletary is the first and second bet.
WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS
Stefon Diggs ($11800 DK, $15000 FD) can probably beat Jaire Alexander if it comes to it, or at least get enough done to prove a cash-viable or cash-necessary pick on this slate. If Alexander shadows Diggs it should leave Gabe Davis ($8400 DK, $12500 FD) with winnable matchups. Isaiah McKenzie ($5600 DK, $10500 FD) and Khalil Shakir ($3800 DK, $5500 FD) could both be busy from the slot, where the lumbering Rasul Douglas can be beaten with quicks like McKenzie and Shakir possess. Allen doesn't just throw to his wideouts, though – Dawson Knox ($5200 DK, $8500 FD) is a good touchdown bet anytime he's on the field, and Quintin Morris ($200 DK, $5500FD) has stepped up when called upon this year.
With Allen Lazard out the Packers will need to try something else at wide receiver, but it's not clear what their options might be. Sammy Watkins ($2600 DK, $7000 FD) is awfully tempting at a low price, both because he's the veteran option and because he has a history of functioning as a lead receiver in an offense. Romeo Doubs ($4000 DK, $11500 FD) is a talented rookie who has already made a number of big plays this year, but Rodgers seemed to blame much of their Week 7 loss on the rookie. Hopefully Rodgers goes back to Doubs, who is a good one. Amari Rodgers ($3000 DK, $6500 FD) might need to serve as the primary slot receiver, though rookie Samari Toure ($600 DK, $5000 FD) might also get his foot in the door, especially if Christian Watson ($1400 DK, $7000 FD) can't play. Robert Tonyan ($6200 DK, $9000 FD) is capable of making a big impact at tight end, and the less the receivers the contribute the more likely Tonyan just does that. Marcedes Lewis ($200 DK, $6500 FD) has just one target on the year, though it went for a touchdown.
KICKERS
Tyler Bass ($4600 DK, $9500 FD) is a solid kicker but one sparingly used in 2022. The Bills get touchdowns, so Bass sometimes gets light workloads. When the Bills need him, though, he reliably makes well north of 80 percent of his field goal attempts. At least there should be ample PAT probability. Mason Crosby ($4400 DK, $9000 FD) isn't as reliable as Bass and needs the Packers to move the ball to keep field goal attempts viable – the Bills offense is presumably going to force that issue by scoring points for their own part.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Josh Allen can occasionally turn the ball over but it's hard to see why he would struggle in this setting. Indeed, the Packers ($3400 DK, $8500 FD) defense seems to be in a substantial amount of danger in this matchup. The Bills ($5400 DK, $9500 FD) defense makes its case more easily – Rodgers is not turnover-prone but he's been the conductor of many failed drives this year and might be more mistake-prone than usual if Bakhtiari regresses. The Buffalo pass rush can get to Rodgers without blitzing him. Anyone picking the Buffalo DST might want to consider McKenzie (KR) or Shakir (PR) as a returner pairing.
