This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
The Giants' season is all but over at 1-4 under a downpour of crucial injuries, including Daniel Jones and most of the starting offensive line. To Josh Allen and the Bills this Giants squad looks like little more than a speedbump. It will be worth monitoring the weather, which could have a sort of equalizing effect if it's bad enough to disrupt Allen as a passer, but if this matchup occurs as it's written on paper then the Bills should roll. The over/under is down to 43.5 from 46.5, and the Bills are favored at home by 15.5 points.
QUARTERBACK
Expensive and chalky he might be, but it's a very aggressive move to fade Josh Allen ($12800 DK, $17000 FD) in a showdown slate where the Bills are heavy favorites. The Giants are a uniquely weak opponent, meaning there are fewer alternative picks to spend your money on anyway. Even if the weather gets bad, Allen is a strong bet to run for multiple touchdowns in the event that his passing production is stalled to any extent.
Tyrod Taylor ($9400 DK, $13500 FD) is a capable backup, but it's unfair to expect him to produce with a completely destroyed offensive line. The Giants are without left tackle Andrew Thomas and center John Michael Schmitz, and right tackle Evan Neal is questionable. Backup tackle Matt Peart is even out. The Bills are a well-coached defense, so this looks like a difficult spot for Taylor. He might need to make it
The Giants' season is all but over at 1-4 under a downpour of crucial injuries, including Daniel Jones and most of the starting offensive line. To Josh Allen and the Bills this Giants squad looks like little more than a speedbump. It will be worth monitoring the weather, which could have a sort of equalizing effect if it's bad enough to disrupt Allen as a passer, but if this matchup occurs as it's written on paper then the Bills should roll. The over/under is down to 43.5 from 46.5, and the Bills are favored at home by 15.5 points.
QUARTERBACK
Expensive and chalky he might be, but it's a very aggressive move to fade Josh Allen ($12800 DK, $17000 FD) in a showdown slate where the Bills are heavy favorites. The Giants are a uniquely weak opponent, meaning there are fewer alternative picks to spend your money on anyway. Even if the weather gets bad, Allen is a strong bet to run for multiple touchdowns in the event that his passing production is stalled to any extent.
Tyrod Taylor ($9400 DK, $13500 FD) is a capable backup, but it's unfair to expect him to produce with a completely destroyed offensive line. The Giants are without left tackle Andrew Thomas and center John Michael Schmitz, and right tackle Evan Neal is questionable. Backup tackle Matt Peart is even out. The Bills are a well-coached defense, so this looks like a difficult spot for Taylor. He might need to make it work by rushing in garbage time.
RUNNING BACK
James Cook ($9200 DK, $11000 FD) should bounce back decisively in this game after an almost inexplicable dud against the Jaguars. The question is whether the Bills actually need Cook to do much, because the game could get wrapped up in a hurry. Latavius Murray ($3600 DK, $8000 FD) and Damien Harris ($1800 DK, $6000 FD) would stand to gain if Cook is given an early break in this one. The Bills could have extensive time to burn in the second half, and that sort of work is sort of beneath Cook since he's not built to take on excess usage.
Saquon Barkley ($11000 DK, $16500 FD) is maybe the toughest question on the slate. He's expensive in his return from a high ankle sprain, and the Giants are major underdogs on the road. Still, the situation might be as simple as that either Barkley produces, or no Giants player does. The Bills defense is not truly strong against the run, so if there was a time to gamble on an injured, traveling underdog then Barkley might be one such case. If not, Matt Breida ($5800 DK, $9500 FD) and Eric Gray ($1600 DK, $5500 FD) would have to pick up any slack Barkley leaves on the field.
WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END
Stefon Diggs ($12200 DK, $16000 FD) is usually a player worth paying for, and there's no matchup-based reason for this game to be any different. The Giants corners can't cover him, and the only way they would contain him would be to sell out the entire defense toward stopping him, much like the Giants did against Justin Jefferson in 2022. If they do that here then the Giants would do so at the expense of cutting loose Gabe Davis ($7800 DK, $12000 FD) or/and Dawson Knox ($3800 DK, $7500 FD). Knox is questionable with a wrist injury but is expected to play. Dalton Kincaid ($4200 DK, $7000 FD) is questionable with a concussion, and if he's out it would boost the projections of Knox and Deonte Harty ($600 DK, $6500 FD). Harty is your DST pairing if you're looking for the Bills returner. Khalil Shakir ($800 DK, $5500 FD) has gained snaps lately on Harty and Trent Sherfield ($200 DK, $5500 FD). Quintin Morris ($200 DK, $5000 FD) is an interesting sleeper particularly if Kincaid is out.
The Giants have many pass-catching options, most of them less than good. That would be the case even if the Giants offensive line weren't completely annihilated. Darren Waller ($7400 DK, $10500 FD) is the most capable player when healthy, but he's questionable with a hamstring injury. Wan'Dale Robinson ($4600 DK, $8500 FD) runs the easiest routes among the receivers, which might make him the favored target after Waller. Darius Slayton ($5200 DK, $8500 FD) and Jalin Hyatt ($1200 DK, $7000 FD) are the ones who run the deep routes, but it's not clear if the Giants line is prepared to buy them the time necessary to get open. Isaiah Hodgins ($6200 DK, $7500 FD), Parris Campbell ($2400 DK, $6000 FD) and Sterling Shepard ($200 DK, $5500 FD) are caught in a cruel zero-sum game.
KICKER
Tyler Bass ($4800 DK, $9000 FD) and Graham Gano ($4400 DK, $9000 FD) are both very good kickers, and Bass in particular has a good on-paper matchup here. The question again goes back to the weather, which if it's bad enough can derail any kicking game. If the weather is manageable then Bass should be in a good spot as he has accumulated 13.0 or more fantasy points in three of his five games this year. If Gano sees a similar level of opportunity then it would probably indicate trouble for the Bills' cover at the very least.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Josh Allen has a surprisingly consistent tendency to turn the ball over, and weather could increase the risk of such things in this game. It would likely require the intervention of hostile weather for the Giants ($3400 DK, $8000 FD) to do well on defense, however, and they have plenty of injuries on that side of the ball, too.
The Bills ($6600 DK, $10000 FD) are extremely expensive for a showdown defense but it's easy to see why. They have a strong advantage over the Giants offense at every level of the field. Saquon Barkley as a rush threat is the one thing the Bills need to account for. If they fail to it could put their win in jeopardy, so it would be surprising if the Bills don't take the necessary measures to sell out against Barkley. Everything is smooth sailing if they can contain Barkley.
