This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Odds Changes And Line Moves
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it warrants significant attention.
On the totals side, the key numbers are 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.
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NFL Week 9 Odds (Opening, Current)
- Houston Texans at New York Jets -3.0 O/U 45.0 (Jets -2.0, O/U 42.0)
- Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns -3.0 O/U 43.5 (Chargers -1.0, O/U 42.0)
- Washington Commanders at New York Giants -1.5 O/U 42.0 (Commanders -3.5, O/U 43.5)
- Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens -10.5 O/U 43.0 (Ravens -9.5, O/U 45.0)
- Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals -7.0 O/U 45.0 (Bengals -7.5, O/U 45.0)
- New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans -2.5 O/U 41.0 (Titans -3.0, O/U 38.0)
- Dallas Cowboys -1.0 at Atlanta Falcons O/U 48.0 (Falcons -3.0, O/U 51.5)
- Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills -3.0 O/U 51.0 (Bills -6.5, O/U 49.0)
- New Orleans Saints -1.0 at Carolina Panthers O/U 40.5 (Saints -7.0, O/U 45.0)
- Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals -1.5 O/U 46.5 (PICK, O/U 44.5)
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 O/U 47.0 (Eagles -7.5, O/U 45.5)
- Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers -1.5 O/U 49.0 (Lions -3.5, O/U 47.5)
- Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks -1.5 O/U 46.5 (PICK, O/U 49.0)
- Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings -1.0 O/U 46.5 (Vikings -6.0, O/U 45.5)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs -7.0 O/U 47.0 (Chiefs -9.5, O/U 45.0)
BYES:49ers, Steelers
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NFL Week 9 Key Injury News
QB - Jordan Love (GB), Drake Maye (NE), Andy Dalton (CAR), Will Levis (TEN)
RB - Jordan Mason (SF), Rico Dowdle (DAL)
WR - Christian Kirk (JAC), Stefon Diggs (HOU), Deebo Samuel (SF), Brian Thomas Jr. (JAC), DJ Moore (CHI), Gabe Davis (JAC), Tee Higgins (CIN), DK Metcalf (SEA)
OL - Christian Darrisaw (MIN)
CB - Marshon Lattimore (NO)
NFL Week 9 Odds Observations
- There are just 4 games with a line of -7.0 or higher
- There are 8 games of a line of -3.5 or less
- There are only 2 road favorites - both -1.0
- There are 4 games with a total of 48.0 or higher
NFL Week 9 Line Movement
Washington Commanders at New York Giants
The Giants opened this spring as -1.5 point home favorites, but the Commanders strong start has moved the line all the way to Washington as -3.5 point road favorites. The Giants come in off short rest because they had to play Monday night at the Steelers.
The total has only moved from 42.0 to 43.5 as the Commanders enter off a low scoring miracle win against the Bears 18-15.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
Every Panthers game will show up as one of the biggest line movers of the week as long as Bryce Young remains at quarterback. Last week, the Broncos opened -4.0 and moved a whopping 8.5 points, all the way to -12.5 and they still covered the number 28-14.
The Saints destroyed the Panthers in Week 1 47-10 as -3.5 home favorites, now they are sitting at -7.0 road favorites which is a full 10.5 point move. This weeks' game had the Saints originally opening as -1.0 point favorites.
The scary thing about this line is how banged up the Saints look coming into this game. But the Panthers persist as the worst team in football, not just this year but over the past several years, and the public perception on them can not get any worse.
Derek Carr and Marshon Lattimore list as questionable and if they end up playing, we could see this line hit a full -10.0 points.
The total sits at 45.0 after opening at just 40.5 because the Panthers defense is just that bad.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
The line in this game is all tied to the status of Packers quarterback Jordan Love. The Packers opened at -1.5 home favorites, but the line moved to Lions -3.5 on Sunday. The line has bounced around quite a bit peaking at Lions -5.0 and then coming back to Lions -3.5.
If Love gets ruled in officially, this line could move to PICK and really give the oddsmakers a headache with bettors on both sides and trying to middle. The Packers also will deal with key injuries on the defensive side to Jaire Alexander and Evan Williams.
The total opened 49.0 and peaked at 50.0 before the Love injury which has put it back down to 47.5 (bottom 46.5).
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have seen their power rating improve the most in the NFL along with the Commanders which means their games will always be a candidate for the biggest line moves of the week.
The Vikings opened as -1.0 point home favorites and it climbed all the way up to -7.0. But there is some buyback on the Colts, par for the course this season. Often as soon as an underdog hits +7.0, the buyback comes and we see it go back to the -5.5 or -6.0 which we see now.
The total has not moved much, it opened 46.5 and is now sitting at 45.5.
