This is the sixth season in which the NFL has had a 14-team playoff format. That means that the No. 1 seed in each conference has the only bye through the postseason's Wild Card round.
But an NFL betting trend centers around when teams clinch that top seed and homefield advantage throughout the conference playoffs. How beneficial is that extra week of rest and does it matter when teams clinch that top seed?
Here are the results:
When No. 1 Seeds Clinch And How They Fare In Playoffs
Postseason Result | Clinched Final Week (5 teams) | Clinched Penultimate Week (5 teams) |
Won Super Bowl | 1 | 0 |
Lost Super Bowl | 1 | 3 |
Lost Conference Championship Game | 1 | 1 |
Lost Division Round | 2 | 1 |
RotoWire.com, your home for top sportsbook promo codes, limited this list to seasons since 2020, when the NFL expanded from 12 to 14 playoff teams. In the 12-team playoff era, both the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in each conference had a first-round bye in the playoffs.
NFL Playoff Scenarios
This year's race for the top seed in each conference came down to the final week. Seattle (NFC) and Denver (AFC) earned the No. 1 spot in their respective conferences and a week off this week, while the other 12 teams are playing in the Wild Card round.
The Super Bowl odds reflect this – entering the final week of the season, the Los Angeles Rams were the Super Bowl favorites at BetMGM Sportsbook at +475 odds.
But as of Jan. 7, the 
Seahawks are the favorites at the national sports betting operator at +375.
The Rams, who are the No. 5 seed in the NFC, are next at +425, followed by the first AFC team on the board, the Broncos, at +650.
Week 18 games settled both top seeds for the 2025-26 postseason. In the NFC, Seattle went on the road and defeated the San Francisco 49ers in Santa Clara. At DraftKings Sportsbook, the Niners are far down the board at +3000 odds to win Super Bowl 60 on Feb. 8.
In the AFC, Denver clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a victory at home over the Los Angeles Chargers. The New England Patriots had the same record at 14-3 but settled for the No. 2 seed, followed by AFC South champ Jacksonville (13-4) at No. 3. At bet365 Sportsbook, the Patriots have +375 odds to win the AFC and reach the Super Bowl.
The 
Jaguars (+600) are fifth on the operator's odds board in their quest to reach the Super Bowl for the first time.
How Teams Finish Based On When They Clinch No. 1 Seed
Here is how No. 1 seeds have finished in the past five years, based on when they clinched the top spot, broken down into each conference with the AFC first:
- 2024: Chiefs clinched in second-to-last week, lost Super Bowl; Lions clinched in final week, lost division round (entering the playoffs, the Lions were the Super Bowl favorite at +275 odds)
- 2023: Ravens clinched in second-to-last week, lost conference championship; 49ers clinched in second-to-last week, lost Super Bowl (49ers were the Super Bowl favorite at +225 odds)
- 2022: Chiefs clinched in final week, won Super Bowl; Eagles clinched in final week, lost Super Bowl (Chiefs were the Super Bowl favorite at +325 odds)
- 2021: Titans clinched in final week, lost division round; Packers clinched in second-to-last week, lost division round (Packers were the Super Bowl favorite at +375 odds)
- 2020: Chiefs clinched in second-to-last week, lost Super Bowl; Packers clinched in final week, lost conference championship (Chiefs were the Super Bowl favorite at +200 odds)
According to SportsOddsHistory.com, which gets historical odds from BetMGM, the 2020 Chiefs were the biggest favorite in this span to win the Super Bowl, with +200 odds before the playoffs began.
Has The NFL Achieved Ultimate Parity?
One of the most interesting things to emerge from the past five years is that being the No. 1 seed is no guarantee of glory.
The only No. 1 seed since 2020 to win the Super Bowl was the 2022 Kansas City Chiefs, who defeated the NFC's top seed, the Philadelphia Eagles, for the championship. That's the only time in this span when both No. 1 seeds reached the Super Bowl. The 2024 Eagles won it all as a No. 2 seed, the 2023 Chiefs were a No. 3, the 2021 Rams were the fourth seed and the 2020 Buccaneers emerged as champs after being the No. 5 seed.
At Caesars Sportsbook, the Seahawks (+175 odds) are the favorites to win the NFC and the Broncos (+230) have the inside betting track to represent the AFC in Super Bowl 60 on Feb. 8 in Santa Clara, California.
No. 1 Seed No Guarantee Of Glory
Having the No. 1 seed gives teams an extra week of rest and homefield advantage throughout the conference playoffs, but only half of those teams parlayed that regular-season success into a Super Bowl appearance.
Three No. 1 seeds stumbled at the first hurdle, in the division round: The Detroit Lions last season (losing to the Washington Commanders) and both top seeds in 2021, the Titans (against the Cincinnati Bengals) and the Green Bay Packers (against the 49ers).
Compare that to the five-year span preceding this one (from 2015 to 2019) when three No. 1 seeds won the Super Bowl and three more reached the big game. In that timeframe, No. 2 seeds (which, remember, also had a first-round bye) claimed the Vince Lombardi Trophy in the other two seasons.
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