NFL Reactions: Week 14 Recap

Every year, there are one or two weeks where very little seems to make sense. Situations that seemed to look clear over the course of many weeks are turned on their ear. This week, I failed to predict much of what happened. This is a week in which I will turn the page and take comfort in the fact this was not yet the fantasy playoffs. Hopefully, those of you who were fighting for playoff spots were successful. Let's talk about the biggest takeaways from the Week 13 action.

Bills at Rams

I've been saying for much of the season that the Rams are nearly impossible to predict each week. They have had some very good games against defenses I didn't think they would do well against. They also came up small in a number of cupcake matchups. As usual, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams had great fantasy performances. The one player I don't trust is Matthew Stafford. Even if the quarterback can lead his top-two receivers to strong PPR performances, that doesn't mean that big yardage and touchdowns will be part of that equation for Stafford. In this game, he reached 320 yards but needed a late TD pass to give him two scoring strikes. It usually doesn't make sense to support two wide receivers, but the quarterback does not produce as a fantasy stud. This is a unique situation. Also, Kyren Williams is always capable of scoring touchdowns — he had two rushing scores Sunday — which come at Stafford's expense.

I did not think the Bills would have any issues moving the ball up and down the field against the Rams' defense. But James Cook and the rushing attack never got going, and without the necessary balance, the passing attack was disjointed. Fortunately for fantasy, Buffalo trailed by double digits in the second half. That allowed Khalil Shakir and Amari Cooper to have productive afternoons. It also helped Josh Allen put up one of the biggest fantasy days ever. He totaled six touchdowns, three through the air and three on the ground, as he passed for 342 yards and rushed for 82. 

Seahawks at Cardinals

Kenneth Walker missed this game with an injury to his calf, which led to Zach Charbonnet taking on a workhorse role. The running back was the star of the offense, posting 193 scrimmage yards and a pair of TDs. Since early in the season, Walker has not had great fantasy numbers. If Walker misses another game, it's reasonable to view Charbonnet as a top-10 running back in PPR leagues. In terms of the passing game, if Seattle is not chasing a big lead, we very rarely see ceiling games from Geno Smith and DK Metcalf. The one player who has been a constant the last month is Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The receiver caught Smith's only touchdown and led the team with 82 receiving yards. it may not be foolish to rank him ahead of Metcalf in the fantasy playoffs. 

For the second time in three weeks, the Cardinals were unable to have sustained success against a much-improved Seattle defense. Kyler Murray took advantage of garbage time to have a decent fantasy day. Aside from being a floor play, it will be tough to trust Marvin Harrison in the fantasy playoffs after he failed to reach 50 yards, which has been a common theme most of the season. The players we can generally count on remain James Conner (122 scrimmage yards and a TD) and Trey McBride (seven catches, 70 yards). They were the only Cardinals with strong performances against the Seahawks.

Falcons at Vikings

The trend with Sam Darnold is that when he doesn't face a high-level pass rush, he can be lethal in this offense. Even though the Falcons recorded four sacks, the lack of consistent pressure allowed Darnold to have an incredible fantasy performance. While the quarterback was tossing five touchdown passes and piling up 347 yards, Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson accounted for all but 82 of the passing yards, catching all five TD passes. Also, Aaron Jones punched in a late touchdown on the ground to add to his 84 scrimmage yards, so the top Minnesota players cashed in. Obviously, this type of performance is unlikely to be repeated. Just remember, when this offense faces disruptive defenses, the fantasy results can be less than optimal. Still, in the fantasy playoffs, start your key Vikings without question.

Even though Atlanta was blown out, its top players were productive. The exception is Kyle Pitts, who has mostly disappeared from this offense. For those still starting him, the waiver wire is probably a better place to find your starter. Kirk Cousins did thrown a touchdown pass, but passing for 344 yards kept him from having a disastrous afternoon. Ray-Ray McCloud had his second consecutive game with at least 95 yards. McCloud will continue to play almost every snap. For those who expected Cousins to get benched, I would be surprised if that happened after this decent performance — despite two more interceptions — against an excellent Minnesota defense.

Panthers at Eagles 

We've seen unexpected outcomes this season in games with big favorites. The heavily favored Eagles never pulled away from the Panthers, and, given how dominant the Philadelphia offense has been, I have to believe the Eagles looked past an inferior opponent. The Carolina defense has been one of the worst in the league all season, but the Eagles were unable to sustain many drives. The main problem for fantasy is that A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith rarely get enough targets to hit their upside. Although Smith scored, the duo combined for 80 receiving yards on 10 targets. Saquon Barkley had another 100-yard rushing game, but he couldn't cash in on multiple chances to get the ball over the goal line. A number of people asked me whether to start Jalen Hurts. Even though he passed for just 108 yards, he had three touchdowns and rushing for 59 yards. It's usually bad business to bench a quarterback who has so many ways to put up a big fantasy game. 

Unfortunately, Jonathon Brooks left this game early with a non-contact knee injury. As a result, Chuba Hubbard handled 30 touches, resulting in 107 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. If Brooks misses time, Hubbard will go back to being a must start each week. Although the Panthers kept the game close, Bryce Young passed for only 191 yards. The only receiver to do well was Adam Thielen, who caught nine passes for 102 yards. As mentioned last week, Thielen needs to be considered a top-30 wide receiver with PPR upside. 

Raiders at Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield continues to put up strong fantasy numbers. Despite throwing a pair of interceptions, he passed for 295 yards and three touchdowns. It's not always be pretty, but Mayfield remains a great fantasy option each week. Bucky Irving suffered a back injury and left early. With a full workload, Rachaad White scored a pair of touchdowns along with 119 scrimmage yards. If Irving misses time, White goes back to being a top-15 running back. Sean Tucker should be rostered in all leagues if Irving is out. Jalen McMillan recorded 59 yards and two touchdowns. McMillan's body of work this year makes him difficult to use in the fantasy playoffs.

Just when we believed the Raiders were a two-man show in the passing game, Michael Mayer ended up leading the team with seven catches for 68 yards. Jakobi Meyers still recorded another high-floor PPR performance. The wide receiver remains an automatic start in the fantasy playoffs. Brock Bowers was a bit disappointing, catching three passes for 49 yards. Still, that is probably as low as the tight end's floor can be. However, Aidan O'Connell suffered a knee injury, and if the Raiders are forced to go with Desmond Ridder in the fantasy playoffs, I will be mildly concerned about the upside of Meyers and Bowers. 

Browns at Steelers

No Steeler had a big game, but the team did plenty to earn a victory at home against the Browns. Those who started Russell Wilson, Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren and Pat Freiermuth were rewarded with solid-floor scoring. The offense clearly missed George Pickens, as the downfield passing attack was mostly quiet. Hopefully, Pickens returns next week, as the offense is much more dangerous with him on the field.

Playing on the road at Pittsburgh was as tough a matchup as the Browns will see all season. David Njoku and Jerry Jeudy had strong fantasy performances. They should remain excellent options in the fantasy playoffs. It's difficult to trust either of the Cleveland running backs. The offensive line has not done well with run blocking. Also, neither Nick Chubb or Jerome Ford are getting enough work to be counted on as consistent fantasy options. The passing attack could receive an upgrade if Cedric Tillman returns from a concussion after missing the last two games. 

Bears at 49ers

For a number of weeks, the 49ers have looked like a team that was getting ready to go into free fall. Playing without the left side of their starting offensive line against a decent Chicago defense didn't seem like a recipe for success. Simply stated, the 49ers showed up in a big way. The offense was dominant by putting up 24 points in the first half. The only fantasy player who disappointed was Deebo Samuel. The receiver has looked like a shell of himself for quite some time, and it seems unlikely that things will turn around anytime soon. Isaac Guerendo looked great as a runner and receiver in his first game as the starting running back. The rookie likely led many fantasy teams to a victory. I was a bit skeptical of calling Guerendo a league winner, but after this performance, I cannot argue with the upside the running back provides. However, he injured his foot late in the game, so we'll need to keep an eye on that this week. Even though things can change quickly for any team, I am comfortable trusting all of the key 49ers' offensive starters — except Samuel — in the fantasy playoffs. 

For the second week in a row, the Bears were a no-show on offense the entire first half. However, for the second week in a row, the offense looked better playing with a big deficit in the second half. The inconsistency makes the Chicago players difficult to project for fantasy. Still, I'm going to trust Caleb Williams as a streamer, as well as DJ Moore and Keenan Allen as solid PPR options. Otherwise, Rome Odunze is a desperation flex. The rookie scored a pair of touchdowns in the second half, but he has not been consistent this season.

Saints at Giants

Even though the Saints held on to beat the Giants, they were very conservative on offense. With few dangerous receiving options, the Giants did a solid job limiting Alvin Kamara  to 79 scrimmage yards on 22 touches. Late in the game, Derek Carr suffered a pair of injuries, one of which is feared to be a broken left hand. if he misses time, the team will turn to Jake Haener. Should Chris Olave (concussion, IR)  return next week, Haener likely will load up Olave with targets, and the receiver could potentially have a strong finish to the season. The team could also get Bub Means back from injured reserve.

Although the New York offense is a mess, Drew Lock took advantage of garbage time and helped propel Malik Nabers and Wan'Dale Robinson to decent fantasy performances. Nabers and Tyrone Tracy should continue to have high-scoring floors throughout the fantasy playoffs. Start any other players from this team with the understanding that you can easily be let down. 

Jets at Dolphins

It was great to see the Dolphins go back to an offense that featured Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The receivers combined for 26 targets. Hill posted 115 yards and a touchdown while Waddle had a 99-yard performance. Of course, with the focus being shifted where it should have been all year, Jonnu Smith ended regulation with a goose egg. Fortunately for his fantasy investors, the tight end was the focal point during the overtime drive. On that possession, Smith caught three passes for 44 yards and a touchdown, and he ended up with another great fantasy performance. After seeing the approach by Miami, Smith could become a volatile option in the fantasy playoffs. Regardless, the tight end has done extremely well for almost two months, so it's difficult to recommend benching him. 

I mistakenly expected Braelon Allen to be the backfield leader with Isaiah Davis taking a deep backseat. This ended up as a timeshare. Although Davis scored, both running backs had nearly identical scrimmage production and touches. If Breece Hall misses another game, both look like top-30  players at running back. Also, Davante Adams  and Garrett Wilson have been maddening for fantasy. Of course, both receivers surpassed 100 yards. This game taught us a valuable lesson that if we bench these WRs, we risk big-upside performances. 

Jaguars at Titans

I predicted that this game would end 13-10.  I clearly overestimated the production. The only touchdown in this game was scored by Tank Bigsby in a Jacksonville victory. The only player on  this offense I trust is Brian Thomas, who caught eight passes for 86 yards. Even though he doesn't have a strong game every week, the rookie has proven that he can be successful regardless of who is at quarterback.

Those who started Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ended up running out of touchdown luck. The receiver was targeted in the end zone, but the pass fell incomplete. Both Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley produced strong floor scoring. They are the two players on this offense I trust going into the fantasy playoffs.

Injuries 

• Bucky Irving injured his back.
• Isaac Guerendo suffered an injured foot in the fourth quarter, and it's unclear as to whether he could have returned.
• Derek Carr sustained hand and head injuries. It is feared that the QB fractured his left hand. Jake Haener replaced Carr.
• Jonathon Brooks suffered a non-contact knee injury.
• Aidan O'Connell sustained a knee injury. Desmond Ridder took over at QB.