This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Week 5 Line Moves and Odds Changes
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it warrants significant attention.
On the totals side, the key numbers are - 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.
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NFL Week 5 Odds (Opening, Current)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons -3.0, O/U 44.5 (Falcons -1.5, 43.5)
- New York Jets -4.0 vs. Minnesota Vikings O/U 44.5 (Vikings -2.5, 40.5)
- Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears -5.5, O/U 42.0 (Bears -3.5, 42)
- Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals -1.5, O/U 46.5 (Ravens -2.5, 51)
- Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans -1.5, O/U 48.0 (Texans -1, 47.5)
- Bills were -2.5 before the Sunday night loss to the Ravens
- Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5, O/U 47.0 (Jags -2.5, 46.0)
- Total dropped as low as 44.5 Sunday morning
- Miami Dolphins -4.5 at New England Patriots O/U 45.0 (Patriots -1, 35.5)
- Line was as far as Pats -2 on Sunday
- Cleveland Browns -3.0 at Washington Commanders O/U 43.5 (Commanders -3.0, 44.5)
- Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos -1.0, O/U 41.0 (Broncos -3, 36.5)
- Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers -9.5, O/U 47.0 (Niners -7, 50.5)
- Fell to -6.5 before going back up to -7
- Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams -1.5, O/U 48.5 (Packers -3.5, 48)
- New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks -3.5, O/U 43.0 (Seahawks -6.5, 43)
- Dallas Cowboys -1.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers O/U 43.0 (Steelers -2.5, 43)
- New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs -8.0, O/U 44.5 (Chiefs -5, 42.5)
BYES: Lions, Chargers, Eagles, Titans
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NFL Week 5 Key Injury News
Chiefs - WR Rashee Rice
Colts - QB Anthony Richardson, RB Jonathan Taylor
Dolphins - RB Raheem Mostert
Niners - TE George Kittle, LB Fred Warner
Packers - WR Christian Watson
Patriots - OL David Andrews
Raiders - WR Davante Adams
Saints - S Tyrann Mathieu, TE Taysom Hill
NFL Week 5 Odds Observations
- Only 2 games with a total of 48 or higher (Ravens/Bengals; Niners/Cardinals)
- Only 1 game with a side of -7 or higher (Niners/Cardinals)
- 10 games with a side of -3.5 or less
- 8 games with a total of 43 or less
- The parity in the NFL is at an all time high and injuries are starting to take a toll, making games very difficult to handicap
NFL Week 5 Line Movement
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings
One of the biggest line moves of the week has the Vikings now up to as high as a -3.0 favorite on a neutral field in London against the Jets. The Jets opened as 4 point favorites back in May. The biggest reason for the move is the Vikings have played like the best team in football with a 4-0 record.
The Jets come in off a disappointing 10-9 loss to the Broncos, but this feels like a significant overcorrection by the market. The Jets are getting market buyback when this line hits -3, and then it comes back to -2.5.
The total has also moved from 44.5 down to 41.5 as both team defenses have limited their opponents to lower scoring ,and the Jets play a very slow grind out tempo on offense.
Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders
We have a 6 point swing in the Browns/Commanders, as the Browns opened at -3, while the Commanders are now -3. The Browns have looked dreadful, including the loss to the Raiders on Sunday, while Jaylen Daniels sets records for rookie quarterbacks. This line did jump to -3.5 and was quickly brought down to -3.
Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams
The Rams were originally -1.5 on the opener, but injuries to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have made the Rams now +3.5 underdogs. This game line did not move at all during the period when Malik Willis started at QB for the Packers.
The Rams are 1-3 and the Packers are 2-2, with narrow losses to the Eagles and Vikings.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Another huge line move swing game as the Dolphins opened as -4.5 road favorites, but saw the line go as far as Patriots -2 when it looked like Tim Boyle could start at quarterback for Miami. But Tyler Huntley has been named the starter and the Dolphins are now back to -1.
The total has completely collapsed going from the opening line of 45.0 all the way down to 35.5 and back up slightly to 36.
