We still have a lot of NFL regular season left, but the 7-3 Chicago Bears might pull off the club's first NFC North division title since 2018. Much of that success can be attributed to first-time head coach Ben Johnson.
The 
Bears have NFL futures odds between +300 and +390, depending on the sportsbook operator, to win the division.
To get a sense of where Johnson's first year in Chicago ranks among recent first-time NFL head coaches, RotoWire.com broke down the numbers on each coach that qualified between 2015 and 2025, listed by winning percentage in their first full season:
Best 12 NFL first-time 1st Year Coaches (2015-2025)
Coach | Team, First Year | Record (Pct.) |
Matt LaFleur |
| 13-3 (.813) |
Kevin O'Connell |
| 13-4 (.765) |
Matt Nagy |
| 12-4 (.750) |
Ben Johnson |
| 7-3 (.700)* |
Kevin Stefanski |
| 11-5 (.688) |
Sean McVay |
| 11-5 (.688) |
Ben McAdoo |
| 11-5 (.688) |
Frank Reich |
| 10-6 (.625) |
Adam Gase |
| 10-6 (.625) |
Liam Coen |
| 6-4 (.600)* |
Mike Macdonald |
| 10-7 (.588) |
DeMeco Ryans |
| 10-7 (.588) |
Green Bay Packers, 2019
Minnesota Vikings, 2022
Cleveland Browns, 2020
Los Angeles Rams, 2017
New York Giants, 2016
Indianapolis Colts, 2018
Miami Dolphins, 2016
Seattle Seahawks, 2024
Houston Texans, 2023*Current 1st year head coaches (2025)
This NFL betting insight from RotoWire.com counts first-year NFL head coaches since 20125, not including any interim head coaches.
What The Data Tells Us About Johnson's 1st Year in Chicago
There appears to be something in the water in the upper reaches of the American Midwest.
Johnson – who came to the Windy City after a three-year stint as offensive coordinator of the Detroit Lions – joins a long list of NFC North head coaches that have hit the ground running with their new teams in recent years.
After 10 games, Johnson ranks behind only three other NFC North leaders – Green Bay's Matt LeFleur (who went 13-3 in 2019), Kevin O'Connell of the Minnesota Vikings (13-4 in 2022) and another Bears coach, Matt Nagy (12-4 in 2018) – for winning percentage as a rookie head coach.
The Bears are still good wagering value; at BetRivers Sportsbook, they have +6600 odds to win Super Bowl 60 in February.
Since 2015, Johnson's current .700 winning percentage ranks ahead of other first-timers like Kevin Stefanski of the Cleveland Browns (11-5 in 2020) and Los Angeles Rams coach Sean McVay (11-5 in 2017) among standout debut seasons.
Throw in other first-time head coaches Ben McAdoo of the New York Giants, who went 11-5 in 2016, and two coaches who were 10-6 (a .625 winning percentage) out of the gate (Frank Reich of the 2018 Indianapolis Colts and Adam Gase of the 2016 Miami Dolphins) and you have the upper end of our first-time coaches list.
Are Any Other NFL First-Timers Doing Well in 2025?
Yes. The 
Jacksonville Jaguars' latest first-timer at head coach is also above .500 after 10 games as an NFL head coach. That's Liam Coen, who has led the AFC South squad to a 6-4 start.
At Caesars Sportsbook and others, the Jags hold +375 odds to win the division.
The only issue for Coen's bunch in North Florida is the fact that Shane Steichen, who finished just outside our NFL first-timers leaderboard (he was 9-8 with the Indianapolis Colts in 2023), has the Hoosier State squad at 8-2 this season.
Still, going into this week, Coen and the Jaguars are in position to land the second Wild Card spot in the AFC. They could be in the NFL postseason for the first time since 2022, when Jacksonville lost in the Divisional Round against the Kansas City Chiefs, 27-20.
See our Week 12 NFL odds at RotoWire to compare operators.
Johnson and Coen have outpaced their fellow first-year coaches in the league: Brian Schottenheimer (4-5-1 with the Dallas Cowboys), Aaron Glenn (2-8 with the New York Jets) and Kellen Moore (2-8 with the New Orleans Saints).
Will Any NFL First Timers Win It All in 2026?
While Johnson has the best record of any NFL first-time head coach this season, Coen and the Jaguars have better Super Bowl LX betting odds across multiple sportsbooks.
Jacksonville is listed at +5500 on Caesars Sportsbook (ahead of the Bears, at +7000) and +6000 on DraftKings Sportsbook (while Chicago is listed at +8000).
Johnson's Bears have better Super Bowl LX betting odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, with Chicago listed at +4500 (11th overall), while Coen and the Jags come in at +5000 (ranking 12th) on the New York-based sports betting goliath's Big Game board.
Still, given the lack of success in Chicago and Jacksonville of late, we're sure football fans in the Windy City and Duval County will gladly take the teams' respective Super Bowl odds on winning the Vince Lombardi Trophy as the calendar rolls toward the final month of 2025.
