NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 10 Sunday Baller

NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 10 Sunday Baller

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.

The Week 10 NFL main slate begins Sunday at 1:00 p.m. EST and features 10 games. The Ravens, Bengals, Patriots and Jets are on bye, while the Thursday Night Football (Falcons-Panthers), Munich game (Seahawks-Buccaneers), Sunday Night Football (Chargers-49ers) and Monday Night Football (Commanders-Eagles) participants are also excluded from Sunday's main slate. Yahoo will be running plenty of NFL DFS contests for Week 10, but the biggest is the Sunday Baller, which pays out a guaranteed prize pool of $200,000 to the top 3,003 finishers, including $25,000 to the winner. You can submit up to 150 entries into this contest, which has a maximum total capacity of 11,760 entries but will still run if it doesn't fill, potentially providing you with enhanced odds of winning, also known as overlay. 

Playing in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests is about chasing upside, while lineups geared towards head-to-head, 50/50 or double-up formats should prioritize high floors. The players you want to target for these different contest types aren't mutually exclusive, but winning a GPP tournament usually requires finding a hidden gem or going against the grain in a spot or two, while building a solid base of the same chalk plays you would use anywhere. Against-the-grain plays typically consist of big-name players in tough matchups or boom-or-bust types with uncertain roles.

Keep in mind that Yahoo DFS contests use 0.5 PPR scoring rather than full PPR, which lowers the comparative value of wide receivers and running backs (in that order) while especially affecting high-volume pass-catchers. Your NFL $200k Sunday Baller lineup will consist of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and one D/ST unit. Among the suggested Week 10 plays are a couple of the game's biggest names at QB and RB, some well established yet affordable WRs and a bargain TE in an ascendant offense.

QUARTERBACK

Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. JAX ($38): Mahomes has been playing as well as any quarterback in recent weeks, and with Kansas City struggling to get production from its running backs, he'll likely continue to shoulder most of the offensive load for the heavy home favorites against a Jaguars team that's allowed 28-plus points in three of four road games this season. Mahomes has topped 30.0 fantasy points three times this season and thrown for over 400 yards in each of the past two games, so he should be worth paying up for and could well wind up leading all fantasy scorers in Week 10.

Honorable Mentions

Justin Fields, CHI vs. DET ($33); Tua Tagovailoa, MIA vs. CLE ($33); Daniel Jones, NYG vs. HOU ($26)

Against the Grainers

Josh Allen, BUF vs. MIN ($41); Russell Wilson, DEN at TEN ($24); Matthew Stafford, LAR vs. ARI ($24)

RUNNING BACK

Saquon Barkley, NYG vs. HOU ($36): Barkley's the focal point of New York's offense regardless of matchup, and he'll likely be relied upon especially heavily against a Houston defense that has shown no ability to stop the run, even when the Texans know it's coming. Over Houston's last three games, lead backs Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry and Miles Sanders have combined for a mind-boggling 455 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. Barkley's also more influential as a pass catcher than those three, and he'll be well equipped to handle a heavy workload with the Giants coming out of their bye.

Dalvin Cook, MIN at BUF ($26): Cook's more of an against-the-grain play, but deploying him in this tricky on-paper matchup could give you a leg up on the competition if he plays up to his capabilities. Buffalo's allowing the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game overall, but much of that success has come because the team has spent so much time with a lead. That may not be the case against the 7-1 Vikings, especially with questions over Josh Allen's availability. In their last two games, the Bills allowed over 200 yards on the ground to a lackluster Packers offense, then surrendered 174 rushing yards in last week's loss to the Jets. Given that context, Cook's a nice value considering he's reached 90 rushing yards in four of eight games and found the end zone five times across his last four outings.

Honorable Mentions

Alvin Kamara, NO at PIT ($31); Dameon Pierce, HOU at NYG ($23); Khalil Herbert, CHI vs. DET ($20)

Against the Grainers

Tony Pollard, DAL at GB ($23); James Conner, ARI at LAR ($20); D'Andre Swift, DET at CHI ($18)

WIDE RECEIVER

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET at CHI ($20): Injury issues have derailed St. Brown's season after a promising start, but he's back to full health just in time to feast on a Bears defense that's surrendered 84 points over its last two games. During that two-game skid, Chicago allowed at least 77 yards to each of CeeDee Lamb, Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill, and all three of those prominent wide receivers got into the end zone. Look for St. Brown, who accrued 23 catches for 253 yards and three touchdowns over the first three weeks, to follow in their footsteps. 

Jerry Jeudy, DEN at TEN ($18): Tennessee has already had its bye, yet the Titans are still one of seven teams that have allowed at least 1,500 yards to wide receivers, and only three of the others (Pittsburgh, Minnesota and Detroit) are playing in the Sunday main slate. It's been tough sledding for Denver's offense, but Jeudy has quietly developed a nice rapport with Russell Wilson in recent weeks, establishing himself as Denver's No. 1 wide receiver over Courtland Sutton. Jeudy has topped 50 yards in each of his last five games, and he vacuumed up 13 of 18 targets for 159 yards and a touchdown across the last two games prior to Denver's Week 9 bye. Establishing the run will be tough against a Titans defense that's allowing only 87.6 rushing yards per game, so expect the Broncos to go with a pass-heavy game plan that heavily features Jeudy. 

Diontae Johnson, PIT vs. NO ($15): Johnson is too good a value to pass up, especially against an inconsistent Saints defense that's allowed 1,429 yards to wide receivers -- eighth most in the league. Pittsburgh's poor quarterback play has greatly limited Johnson's effectiveness, and he has yet to find the end zone, but he's getting open consistently and seeing plenty of targets. He's caught at least five passes in all but one game this season, and Johnson's 76 targets are good for seventh in the NFL. The potential reward far outweighs the risk for a guy who accrued 2,084 yards and 15 touchdowns over the two seasons preceding this one.

Honorable Mentions

Cooper Kupp, LAR vs. ARI ($39); Chris Olave, NO at PIT ($26); JuJu Smith-Schuster, KC vs. JAX ($18)

Against the Grainers

Davante Adams, LV vs. IND ($25); Amari Cooper, CLE at MIA ($24); Gabe Davis, BUF vs. MIN ($17)

TIGHT END

Cole Kmet, CHI vs. DET ($13): With Justin Fields showing noticeable improvement as a passer recently, Kmet has suddenly become a factor in the red zone. After enduring a 28-game touchdown drought dating back to his rookie season, the tight end has come alive with three touchdowns over the past two games, and he should get more scoring opportunities against a Lions defense that's been gashed for a league-high 29.3 points per game. Detroit's 502 receiving yards and five touchdowns allowed to TEs are sixth most and fourth most in the league, respectively.

Honorable Mentions

Travis Kelce, KC vs. JAX ($32); Greg Dulcich, DEN at TEN ($18); Tyler Higbee, LAR vs. ARI ($14)

Against the Grainers

T.J. Hockenson, MIN at BUF ($17); Zach Ertz, ARI at LAR ($16); Dalton Schultz, DAL at GB ($10)

DEFENSE

Las Vegas Raiders, LV vs. IND ($13): Vegas' defense has struggled most of the year, but it's proven it can deliver in favorable matchups, producing double-digit fantasy points against both the Broncos and Texans. Those are two of the league's lowest-scoring offenses, but they're both ahead of the Colts, who rank last in the league at 14.7 points per game. Indianapolis has been even worse since handing the reins to the offense to Sam Ehlinger, who has guided the team to just 9.5 PPG while failing to throw a touchdown in his first two NFL starts. Even if Indianapolis gets Jonathan Taylor back, the Raiders' defense should feast on the league's least threatening offense in front of a boisterous home crowd.

Honorable Mentions:

Denver Broncos, DEN at TEN ($16); New Orleans Saints, NO at PIT ($14); New York Giants, NYG vs. HOU ($13)

Against the Grainers: 

Buffalo Bills, BUF vs. MIN ($18); Tennessee Titans, TEN vs. DEN ($17); Kansas City Chiefs, KC vs. JAX ($14)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Sasha Yodashkin plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Youngsash, DraftKings: Yashdogg,Yahoo: Sasha, Fanball: Yashdogg.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Sasha Yodashkin
Sasha has been contributing NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB and Tennis content to RotoWire since 2015, with an emphasis on DFS. He is a huge New York sports fan who has been playing fantasy sports since middle school.
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