NFL DFS Breakdown: Christmas Matchups

NFL DFS Breakdown: Christmas Matchups

This article is part of our DFS NFL series.

The NFL brings two games for us to enjoy this Christmas. The slate starts with the Steelers playing host to the Chiefs, followed up by the Texans playing host to the Ravens. Let's break down each position and highlight some players to consider for DFS on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson ($8,000 DK, $8,600 FD) produced three touchdown passes against the Steelers last week. In his last nine games, he has 27 passing touchdowns. He could be a nightmare matchup for the Texans, who are tied for the most passing touchdowns allowed in the league. While he comes with a hefty salary, Jackson might have the highest floor among quarterbacks for this slate.

Behind Jackson are the duo of Patrick Mahomes ($6,500 DK, $7,500 FD) and C.J. Stroud ($6,000 DK, $7,300 FD). While Mahomes had a rushing touchdown against the Texans last week, he had just one passing touchdown. He hasn't had more than one touchdown pass in three of his last four games. That makes him tough to feel great about against the Steelers, who have given up just 19 passing touchdowns all season. Stroud has also been a disappointment in terms of touchdowns this season, but he has shown signs of life with at least two touchdown passes in three of his last four games. The Ravens have been excellent against the run this season, but they have allowed the second-most passing yards per game and are tied for the fifth-most passing touchdowns allowed in the league. This could be a spot for Stroud to shine.

The quarterback to avoid from these two games is likely Russell Wilson ($5,500 DK, $7,100 FD). He hasn't topped 217 passing yards in any of his last three games. The Chiefs have also been excellent on defense, allowing an average of just 18.5 points per game.

Running Back

Joe Mixon ($7,700 DK, $8,000 FD) had a difficult matchup last week against the Chiefs, who have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game in the league. They limited him to 57 yards on 14 carries. That marked the third time in the last four games that Mixon has rushed for fewer than 60 yards. Given how well the Ravens have defended the run, it might be best to avoid Mixon at his expensive salary.

All four of the teams rank in the top 11 in the league in fewest rushing yards allowed per game. That means that taking someone with a high floor like Derrick Henry ($8,200 DK, $9,200 FD) could be appealing. Even in a tough matchup against the Steelers last week, he turned 24 carries into 162 yards. While he hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 11, he still has 13 rushing touchdowns for the season.

It has been a quiet stretch for Najee Harris ($5,400 DK, $6,000 FD), who hasn't topped 53 rushing yards in any of his last three games. The last two weeks, he has combined for just 15 carries. Part of that can be attributed to the Steelers trailing in those games. After the Chiefs bottled up Mixon last week, it's difficult to feel good about deploying Harris in DFS. The same can be said of Isiah Pacheco ($5,700 DK, $5,900 FD), who has rushed for a total of just 157 yards over four games since returning from injury.

For those searching for a more budget-friendly running back option, Kareem Hunt ($5,200 DK, $6,200 FD) is at least worth considering. He had a rushing touchdown against the Texans last week and has received five carries inside the red zone the last two games. Pacheco received just one red-zone carry during that span.

Wide Receiver

Injuries will play a role at wide receiver for this slate. The Steelers could get back George Pickens ($6,600 DK, $7,600 FD), who has sat out three consecutive games with a hamstring injury. Before going down with the injury, Pickens had posted 487 receiving yards and three touchdowns in his previous six games.

On the negative side of things, the Texans are without Tank Dell (knee). That should funnel even more targets to Nico Collins ($8,300 DK, $9,100 FD), who caught seven of 10 targets for 60 yards against the Chiefs last week. The Ravens have allowed the fifth-most receptions to wide receivers in the league. The Texans claimed Diontae Johnson ($ NA DK, $4,000 FD) off waivers Monday, but even if he plays in this game, he will likely have a minimal role.

On the Ravens side of things, Zay Flowers ($6,400 DK, $7,400 FD) should play after battling a shoulder injury throughout the week. Another appealing option on the Ravens is Rashod Bateman ($4,800 DK, $6,200 FD). He has five touchdown receptions in his last six games.

Xavier Worthy ($5,600 DK, $6,600 FD) has been productive for the Chiefs lately, but don't sleep on Hollywood Brown ($4,500 DK, $6,400 FD). He made his season debut last week and was thrown right into the thick of things with eight targets. He caught five for 45 yards. He received more work than DeAndre Hopkins ($5,100 DK, $6,400 FD), who caught all four of his targets for 37 yards.

Tight End

The Chiefs stand out as a team to attack with tight ends. They have allowed the most receiving yards and the third-most receptions to the position in the league. Trying to exploit their weakness will be Pat Freiermuth ($3,900 DK, $5,300 FD), who has at least one touchdown in three of his last four games.

As good of a matchup as Freiermuth has, Mark Andrews ($4,300 DK, $6,100 FD) is the top tight end to consider for this slate. He scored yet another touchdown last week against the Steelers, giving him nine touchdowns in his last 10 games. He also received at least five targets in a game five times during that span.

While Travis Kelce ($5,300 DK, $6,400 FD) might be the biggest name at the position among these two games, that doesn't mean he will be worth his salary. He has produced 45 or fewer receiving yards in each of his last three games. He also hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 10. Given their salary differences, Dalton Schultz ($4,100 DK, $5,500 FD) could provide more value than Kelce. With Dell going down early last week, Schultz caught five of eight targets for 45 yards and a touchdown. He has received at least six targets in a game seven times this season.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Mike Barner plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: mbarner, DraftKings: mbarner51.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Mike Barner
Mike started covering fantasy sports in 2007, joining RotoWire in 2010. In 2018, he was a finalist for the FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Mike also won the 2022-23 FSGA NBA Experts Champions league. In addition to RotoWire, Mike has written for Sportsline, Sports Illustrated, DK Live, RealTime Fantasy Sports, Lineup Lab and KFFL.com.
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