We are going to be taking a look at the Week 16 Battle Royale slate and providing macro thoughts on roster construction, draft strategy and some player takes. The revised simulation logic we have been working with the last few weeks has proven to be strong and as a result we won't be making any changes. Due to the start of Saturday games, we only have 11 games on this slate. On the surface this does not feel like a fantastic slate of games but let's drive in regardless.
For all of these data points, the sims and ADP is run as of Friday morning.
For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, lineups, roster changes and more, head to RotoWire's Fantasy Football News & Latest NFL Updates or follow @RotoWireNFL on X.
Roster Structure
RBs | WRs | TEs | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
2 | 2 | 1 | 80.29% |
1 | 3 | 1 | 18.50% |
1 | 2 | 2 | 1.21% |
This week, TE flex usage drops fairly significantly coming in just above one percent as almost all of that drop has moved to RB, where the position eclipses 80 percent again for the first time in the last few weeks.
What ADPs to Draft
No adjustments to the rules for the sim, so for a refresher read up below.
Just a reminder here are the buckets and the rules on how they can be "drafted".
- ADP <= 6
- ADP > 6 and <= 10
- ADP > 10 and < 28
- ADP >= 28
By no means are these buckets at all
We are going to be taking a look at the Week 16 Battle Royale slate and providing macro thoughts on roster construction, draft strategy and some player takes. The revised simulation logic we have been working with the last few weeks has proven to be strong and as a result we won't be making any changes. Due to the start of Saturday games, we only have 11 games on this slate. On the surface this does not feel like a fantastic slate of games but let's drive in regardless.
For all of these data points, the sims and ADP is run as of Friday morning.
For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, lineups, roster changes and more, head to RotoWire's Fantasy Football News & Latest NFL Updates or follow @RotoWireNFL on X.
Roster Structure
RBs | WRs | TEs | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
2 | 2 | 1 | 80.29% |
1 | 3 | 1 | 18.50% |
1 | 2 | 2 | 1.21% |
This week, TE flex usage drops fairly significantly coming in just above one percent as almost all of that drop has moved to RB, where the position eclipses 80 percent again for the first time in the last few weeks.
What ADPs to Draft
No adjustments to the rules for the sim, so for a refresher read up below.
Just a reminder here are the buckets and the rules on how they can be "drafted".
- ADP <= 6
- ADP > 6 and <= 10
- ADP > 10 and < 28
- ADP >= 28
By no means are these buckets at all perfect but we need some rules to allow the sim to build "reasonable" teams. Per the rules, you are allowed at most ONE player in Bucket One, TWO players in Bucket Two, THREE players in Bucket Three, and FOUR Players in Bucket Four. Additionally you may only take TWO players across Bucket One and Two and THREE players total across Bucket Two and Three. Again, this is not perfect but it does the job for what we are trying to accomplish. Let's take a look at how the sim actually built teams.
Bucket One | Bucket Two | Bucket Three | Bucket Four | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 22.05% |
1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 18.02% |
1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 12.37% |
1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 12.21% |
1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 10.94% |
1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5.86% |
0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5.01% |
0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3.53% |
0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2.92% |
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2.53% |
0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2.04% |
0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.14% |
0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.95% |
0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.43% |
This week is actually fascinating compared to previous weeks. For the first time I can remember, the most common winning lineups all include at least one Bucket One player. Interestingly, there also happen to be six Bucket One players which may explain this outcome to an extent. This strongly the supports the idea that we should not be picky with any of the players in the first round by ADP and we should not try to fade any of them.
QB Analysis
QB is extremely thin at the top with only Josh Allen in Bucket Two. However, all remaining QBs come in at Bucket Four with Dak Prescott's 28 ADP appearing as the next QB off the board. This impacts how we draft QBs but also impacts our overall strategy mightily. This likely means we will often need to jump large sections of ADP when building teams to avoid falling into the same names. Get weird at other picks because of how QB plays out.
Despite the big ADP gap, Allen is only optimal in around 14 percent of sims. I think its perfectly reasonable to take him when he is available especially if he drops at all past ADP. Beyond him, there are nine QBs who are optimal more than five percent of the time. My favorites are Justin Herbert and Dak Prescott opposite each other, and Jaxson Dart who did show a willingness to run again last week. If you want much lower rostered options, Tyler Shough and Aaron Rodgers look like fun scroll choices who are easily stacked.
TE Analysis
Trey McBride takes the top spot again but his 16 percent optimal rate is much lower than it has been in the last few weeks. With the Kyle Pitts explosion game last week, there are four TEs with greater than 10 percent optimal rates. However, even inclusive of these players, the optimal rates for Bucket Four TEs as a whole is 60 percent.
TE is fairly boring, but I personally do not love the three players going in Bucket Three (Pitts, Brock Bowers and Harold Fannin). If I do not get an early McBride share, I am most likely fading that group and attacking the later options. Projections like Travis Kelce and Oronde Gadsden, but I like going down to Theo Johnson or Brenton Strange.
RB Analysis
Unlike last week, the Bucket One RBs jump off the page in the sims. Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson look like smashes both above 16 percent optimal, and De'Von Achane also grades well even with the QB change. Bucket Two is super small this week (there's only three players) but James Cook leads all players in optimal rate at over 18 percent. The top end of RBs looks great.
Bucket | Number | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
ONE | 1 | 44.68% |
TWO | 1 | 18.37% |
THREE | 1 | 39.10% |
THREE | 2 | 3.73% |
FOUR | 1 | 52.92% |
FOUR | 2 | 8.88% |
However, that does not mean that the later options are slouches by any means either. Bucket Three boasts two RBs above 10 percent optimal in Javonte Williams and Bucky Irving and while both guys may be slightly fragile for different reasons, both are strong plays. Bucket Four actually appears at its lowest frequency with around 60 percent of optimal lineups containing at least one back from there. RJ Harvey and Quinshon Judkins are the projection favorites from down there both coming in at over 10 percent. I will likely be trying to get one of the four early RBs and then maybe pairing them with a Bucket Three option and saving my scrolling for WR.
WR Analysis
Due to the strength of the RBs, the Bucket One and Two WRs all come in around 10 percent optimal. All three are perfectly fine plays but due to the relative strength of the RBs there, it often requires an elite RB to win. This boosts up the Bucket Three WRs. One notable one is CeeDee Lamb who just sneaks into Bucket Three with a 10.1 ADP. As a result he is the highest optimal rate WR on the slate. In total, five of the top six WRs by optimal rate are Bucket Three WRs. This highlights the idea I was trying to highlight with the RBs that there is strength up top there so we likely want to use the early picks on RBs when we can.
Bucket | Number | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
ONE | 1 | 20.00% |
TWO | 1 | 10.53% |
THREE | 1 | 53.92% |
THREE | 2 | 19.01% |
THREE | 3 | 0.82% |
FOUR | 1 | 55.04% |
FOUR | 2 | 18.50% |
FOUR | 3 | 0.51% |
Bucket Four contains a strong play with some injury concerns in Tetairoa McMillan who fills out that top six optimal rate group filled with the Bucket Three options. Tee Higgins, Ladd McConkey and Xavier Worthy are also options the projections like and there are 10 different WRs with over a four percent optimal rate according to the sims. Quentin Johnston and Courtland Sutton are two guys in that 4-5 percent range that I like a lot paired with the early RB selections.
Overall, it does feel wide open, but I think there is a strong path to be going down in terms of structure. WR feels deeper and the relative lack of separation at TE and QB makes it easy to attack two early RBs and let the rest of the draft fall as it may.
Interested in other DFS contests? Check out RotoWire's DFS Lineup Optimizer.
