This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
These two teams had such high hopes to begin the year – the Seahawks armed with a fresh offensive coordinator who was supposed to usher in a new era of life to a passing game needlessly held back for years, the Washington team ready to charge for a division title on the strength of a defense loaded at all three levels. A lethargic Seahawks offense and a major finger injury to Russell Wilson was what Seattle fans got instead, and Washington's defense inexplicably was awful despite an outstanding collection of talent. Injuries have done a number to both teams, furthermore, and by now neither team has much to realistically play for aside from pride.
Of course, neither team wants to count themselves out yet – the Seahawks said they simply plan to win seven games in a row – so at least in theory they should both play hard. The game is in Washington, the over/under is 47, and Seattle is favored by one point after opening as 2.5-point favorites.
QUARTERBACKS
Russell Wilson ($11000 DK, $15500 FD) would normally project as a great play against this underachieving and battered Washington defense, but Wilson's own physical condition is in some question given how awful he's played the last two weeks. There's an entirely understandable excuse – it's probably difficult to throw a football at a world-class level while the tendon is torn in one of the knuckles on your middle finger – but there's no such thing as injury-adjusted points
These two teams had such high hopes to begin the year – the Seahawks armed with a fresh offensive coordinator who was supposed to usher in a new era of life to a passing game needlessly held back for years, the Washington team ready to charge for a division title on the strength of a defense loaded at all three levels. A lethargic Seahawks offense and a major finger injury to Russell Wilson was what Seattle fans got instead, and Washington's defense inexplicably was awful despite an outstanding collection of talent. Injuries have done a number to both teams, furthermore, and by now neither team has much to realistically play for aside from pride.
Of course, neither team wants to count themselves out yet – the Seahawks said they simply plan to win seven games in a row – so at least in theory they should both play hard. The game is in Washington, the over/under is 47, and Seattle is favored by one point after opening as 2.5-point favorites.
QUARTERBACKS
Russell Wilson ($11000 DK, $15500 FD) would normally project as a great play against this underachieving and battered Washington defense, but Wilson's own physical condition is in some question given how awful he's played the last two weeks. There's an entirely understandable excuse – it's probably difficult to throw a football at a world-class level while the tendon is torn in one of the knuckles on your middle finger – but there's no such thing as injury-adjusted points in fantasy or real football, and the last two weeks Wilson has been non-viable. If the finger improves to a sufficient point – who knows if it will – then at that moment Wilson should immediately become one of the league's top quarterbacks again. That general truth is more easily discerned than the specific time any of this might actually happen, so in the meantime it appears nothing is guaranteed for Wilson or the pass catchers dependent on him.
Taylor Heinicke ($9800 DK, $14500 FD) has less excuse for failure than Wilson, especially with tight end Logan Thomas expected back from IR for this game. Players like Curtis Samuel (injury) and Adam Humphries (performance) haven't stepped up this year, so Thomas' return should be meaningful for Heinicke and WR1 Terry McLaurin, who hopefully won't need to do absolutely everything himself. Given the preferable state of his throwing hand, it's arguable that Heinicke warrants a higher projection here than Wilson. The main concern for Heinicke is that he'll be playing with his third-string center and backup right tackle.
RUNNING BACKS
Antonio Gibson ($8600 DK, $12000 FD) showed some signs of life last week after a mostly sluggish season as a runner, but the Seahawks have defended the run well in 2021, holding opposing backs to 3.9 yards per carry. They've been much more vulnerable to running backs as receivers, surrendering a catch rate of 84.3 percent at an outrageous 8.8 yards per target. Gibson could capitalize as a pass catcher himself, but if the run game stalls then it might be J.D. McKissic ($7200 DK, $9500 FD) who gets the first crack at the weakest part of the Seattle defense. Jaret Patterson ($1000 DK, $7000 FD) is hanging around as the third runner
Alex Collins ($6600 DK, $11000 FD) should get the vast majority of the carries for the Seahawks, and if the game is close then that figure could be fairly high. The question is how much Collins can do with any given workload, because Washington has quietly defended running backs effectively in 2021. While they've allowed more fantasy points to running backs than average, that point total is propelled by an unsustainable eight receiving touchdowns on 71 targets. Washington otherwise holds running backs to 3.7 yards per carry on the ground, and through the air just 5.4 yards per target at a 71.8 percent completion rate. Deejay Dallas ($5200 DK, $9500 FD) should see more work the more Seattle throws the ball.
WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS
Terry McLaurin ($10600 DK, $13500 FD) is a menace and can torch secondaries much better than this one. Seattle's secondary is one of the worst and its pass rush is below average, so this should be a strong setup for McLaurin. Logan Thomas ($4800 DK, $10500 FD) is probably underpriced – he could be Washington's second-leading route runner even if Curtis Samuel ($5000 DK, $8000 FD) suits up. DeAndre Carter ($5600 DK, $10000 FD) has done an admirable job of filling in as Washington's second-leading receiver in recent weeks, though his usage might take a hit with Thomas' return. Cam Sims ($3800 DK, $6000 FD), Adam Humphries ($2800 DK, $8000 FD) and Dax Milne ($200 DK, $5500 FD) are all candidates to pick up scraps, though not necessarily good ones. John Bates ($3600 DK, $6500 FD) should mostly be reduced to a blocking tight end with the return of Thomas.
Tyler Lockett ($10200 DK, $12500 FD) costing more than DK Metcalf ($8800 DK, $13500 FD) on DK almost seems like a mistake, or at least there's no good reason for Lockett to cost more. Bad Russell Wilson or not, it's easier to get a player as big and fast as Metcalf the ball. Lockett is of course an excellent receiver in his own right, and if we get Good Russell Wilson here then both wideouts should be a threat to go off. Gerald Everett ($6200 DK, $7500 FD) might be the third-leading favorite for targets, but Dee Eskridge ($200 DK, $6000 FD) is a good dark horse candidate for that distinction as he works his way back from an early-season concussion. Freddie Swain ($2200 DK, $5500 FD) and Penny Hart ($200 DK, $5000 FD) are the wide receiver candidates otherwise. Will Dissly ($600 DK, $6500 FD) can pop up at tight end occasionally, though he's usually more of a blocker.
KICKERS
Joey Slye ($4200 DK, $8500 FD) has long-range ability as a kicker and has generally been productive in 2021, surpassing double-digit fantasy points in three of eight games, and eight points in five. Granted, that was over three different teams, but he has the leg and the circumstances should be somewhat favorable here. Jason Myers ($4000 DK, $9000 FD) has some range of his own, but the Seattle offense has not been helpful for his opportunity level in 2021. The Seahawks tend to operate at a sluggish pace, cutting down their play and drive count and tanking Myers' kicking opportunities in the process.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
The Seahawks ($4600 DK) defense is healthier than the Washington ($4400 DK) one, but its starting personnel was much worse, too. Even now it's not definite that the Seattle defense is any better than the Washington one. Not just that, but Seattle's opponent isn't the one whose quarterback is trying to play through a busted middle finger on his throwing hand. Anything can happen in one game, but it's not clear what edge either defense has on either offense.
