This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
It's been an ugly season for the Saints and Dolphins, yet both teams have an outside shot at the playoffs as they head into this game with 7-7 records. Defense carries both squads – especially the Dolphins, whose bad offense has little or no injury excuse, in contrast to the battered New Orleans offense. The Saints are without three pillars on the offensive line – including both tackles, both of them standouts league-wide – in addition to trotting out fourth-string quarterback Ian Book with all of Jameis Winston, Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill unavailable at this point. It's been so long we rarely remember to mention it at this point, but the absence of Michael Thomas is another major loss the Saints have weathered all season. This game could be ugly for one or both offenses. The over/under is 37 and the Dolphins are favored by three points.
QUARTERBACKS
Neither quarterback is set up well in this one. Both defenses are dangerous and both offensive lines are awful – the Saints due to injury and the Dolphins due to bad GM work. Tua Tagovailoa ($10200 DK, $15000 FD) arguably deserves the most benefit of the doubt between the two quarterbacks, both because there's reason to believe he's the better player and because he has better pass catchers to work with. Jaylen Waddle, DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki are more dangerous than Marquez Callaway, Tre'Quan Smith and Nick Vannett. With that said, the Saints are still
It's been an ugly season for the Saints and Dolphins, yet both teams have an outside shot at the playoffs as they head into this game with 7-7 records. Defense carries both squads – especially the Dolphins, whose bad offense has little or no injury excuse, in contrast to the battered New Orleans offense. The Saints are without three pillars on the offensive line – including both tackles, both of them standouts league-wide – in addition to trotting out fourth-string quarterback Ian Book with all of Jameis Winston, Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill unavailable at this point. It's been so long we rarely remember to mention it at this point, but the absence of Michael Thomas is another major loss the Saints have weathered all season. This game could be ugly for one or both offenses. The over/under is 37 and the Dolphins are favored by three points.
QUARTERBACKS
Neither quarterback is set up well in this one. Both defenses are dangerous and both offensive lines are awful – the Saints due to injury and the Dolphins due to bad GM work. Tua Tagovailoa ($10200 DK, $15000 FD) arguably deserves the most benefit of the doubt between the two quarterbacks, both because there's reason to believe he's the better player and because he has better pass catchers to work with. Jaylen Waddle, DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki are more dangerous than Marquez Callaway, Tre'Quan Smith and Nick Vannett. With that said, the Saints are still unfriendly to opposing quarterbacks, allowing just 18 touchdowns to 15 interceptions while holding opponents to just 7.1 yards per pass. Most of that sample was against quarterbacks more productive than Tagovailoa has been this year.
However bad it might look for Tagovailoa, it's arguably worse for Ian Book ($9000 DK, $12000 FD). Book was arguably a reach when the Saints selected him in the fourth round of the 2021 draft – the case was made easily enough even at the time, and the fact that since then Book was unable to earn playing time ahead of the wretched Trevor Siemian gives additional reason to worry Book just doesn't have NFL tools, especially arm talent. Book more so got by on moxie and mobility. His mobility is his strongest point for any fantasy optimism – Book was a consistently effective runner in college, and with a 4.65-second pro day 40-yard dash, and the Dolphins' aggressive blitzing could give Book an opportunity to run if someone fails to manage their gap. Perhaps Books' big-game collegiate experience and the home venue of the game will allow some of that moxie to show up in this, his first NFL appearance, but if he failed it would be more expected than shocking.
RUNNING BACKS
Alvin Kamara ($12200 DK, $16500 FD) is the star of the slate, even with the Saints three-point underdogs at home. The matchup is less than favorable with the Dolphins allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs, and that factor is only made worse with the Saints' offensive line woes and the installation of Book in place of Taysom Hill, but in a single-game slate with low projected scoring it's simply difficult to leave Kamara out of a lineup. While the Saints might struggle to move the ball and Kamara's numbers might suffer as a result, the Dolphins should struggle enough to score that the Saints at least retain the option of giving Kamara usage volume. After a certain amount of usage a player of Kamara's abilities is liable to get the better of the defense sooner or later, even if the initially sledding is tough. The Saints might have to work both Kamara and Mark Ingram ($5200 DK, $9500 FD) extensively in this one, depending on how many snaps they log and how badly they want to hide Book as a passer. Ingram played 29 snaps to Kamara's 37 against Tampa Bay in Week 15, seeing nine carries and two targets. Tony Jones ($200 DK, $5500 FD) is hanging around as the third back, though he didn't play last week.
Duke Johnson ($7200 DK, $11000 FD) played hometown hero for the Dolphins last week, running for 107 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries and catching one target for 20 yards against the Jets. With that it's fair to wonder if he'll be the lead Miami running back going forward, or at least for one more week, even ahead of Myles Gaskin ($7400 DK, $11000 FD). But Johnson's big game against the Jets occurred with Gaskin just being activated from the Covid list, and this time around Gaskin will likely see a more even workload split with Johnson. None of that is to factor in Phillip Lindsay ($3400 DK, $6000 FD), who is loosely expected to make his Miami debut after just recently shaking off an ankle injury. Perhaps one or more of these running back will provide a good return for their showdown slate investors, but the concern here is that we have three running backs who are at once not good enough to be clear starters but are overqualified for 1/3 workload splits, and all of this occurring in the context of a difficult road matchup. The pie might be small, and it might get split evenly between up to three players. Generally, though, Johnson and Gaskin are the ones expected to contend for the lead role, and at the very least they're both much better in passing situations than Lindsay, who has generally struggled in that capacity in the NFL.
WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS
While Kamara is by far the most notable player in the Saints offense, the strength of the Miami offense – if we reach far enough to satisfy the definition – is its pass catchers. Jaylen Waddle ($11600 DK, $13000 FD) is back after a one-week absence and he returns to a role that saw him draw 115 targets on 689 snaps. Waddle is an uncommon talent with non-negotiably high usage, and his DFS price tag reflects that. Waddle should also see the most vulnerable parts of the Saints pass defense – the slot – while fellow standout receiver DeVante Parker ($9400 DK, $10500 FD) lines up outside and sees the most of top corner Marshon Lattimore. Mike Gesicki ($6400 DK, $10000 FD) is the third-leading pass-catching candidate for the Dolphins, though the return of Waddle might complicate his role somewhat. Gesicki doesn't play actual tight end all that often and needs snaps at wide receiver to get his targets, and most of those snaps can only occur in the slot. So for Gesicki to get snaps and targets he needs Waddle to line up outside or the Dolphins to go four-wide, both of which only occur occasionally. Durham Smythe ($600 DK, $6500 FD) is the actual lead tight end for Miami, though largely for his blocking abilities. Adam Shaheen ($200 DK, $6500 FD) plays (less) for the same reason. Smythe and Shaheen pop up occasionally in the box score, and perhaps the Saints will be more vulnerable to tight ends than usual with DeMario Davis and Malcolm Jenkins out. Mack Hollins ($200 DK, $6500 FD) and Isaiah Ford ($2800 DK, $7000 FD) are the leading candidates to play the third and fourth wide receiver roles, with Preston Williams ($200 DK, $6000 FD) trailing them.
Marquez Callaway ($7800 DK, $8500 FD) is New Orleans' lead outside receiver and has done reasonably well for himself in 2021. He may well continue to in this game, but he also projects to run against the toughest parts of the Dolphins coverage. The outside corners Xavien Howard and Byron Jones are tougher than the slot coverage of Nik Needham, against whom Tre'Quan Smith ($4600 DK, $7500 FD) should see most of his matchups. Smith is managing a shoulder injury, so if he misses any snaps they might go to Ty Montgomery ($2400 DK, $5500 FD) or/and Lil'Jordan Humphrey ($1800 DK, $6500 FD). Nick Vannett ($1000 DK, $7000 FD) will have to serve as lead tight end with both Adam Trautman and Juwan Johnson unavailable. Vannett is known more as a blocker than a compelling pass-catching threat, but the Dolphins have been vulnerable to tight ends this year and it's always easier to throw to the middle of the Dolphins defense than the boundary.
KICKERS
Jason Sanders ($4200 DK, $8500 FD) is the conventionally preferred kicker in the matchup, both because he's on the favored team and because he's the better kicker between himself and Saints kicker Brett Maher ($4000 DK, $9000 FD). Both kickers have some amount of range, making them eligible for those sweet five-point kicks from 50 yards or more, and playing in a dome could give one or both the chance to demonstrate their range.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
One or both of the defenses could play an important role in the cashing outcomes on the DK slate, where the Saints cost $3800 and the Dolphins cost $4400. The Dolphins rank first in league blitz rate and first in Pro Football Reference's Pressure Rate metric, and now they face a rookie fourth-string quarterback without three fifths of his offensive line, including its two best players. The Saints don't rank as high in PFR's Pressure Rate – precisely average (16th), in fact – but the Miami offensive line is awful at its best, and the Saints' front four is healthier than it had been at earlier points this year. With that said, the Saints defense will lack two of its best players with standout linebacker DeMario Davis and safety Malcolm Jenkins out for Covid reasons.
